Uranium — material dossier

Structural facts + context. Verified components marked.

What it is

Heavy metal, atomic number 92. The fissile fuel for nuclear power reactors. Traded as U3O8 (yellowcake) — the mined- and-milled intermediate — which is then converted to UF6, enriched to reactor grade (3-5% U-235 for typical light-water reactors, up to 19.75% HALEU for some small modular reactors), and fabricated into fuel assemblies.

Four distinct segments of the uranium supply chain, each with different geography and risk profile:

1. Mining / milling: produces U3O8. Kazakhstan-dominated. 2. Conversion: U3O8 → UF6. US (Honeywell), Canada (Cameco), France (Orano), Russia (Rosatom), China (CNNC) are the five conversion plants globally. 3. Enrichment: UF6 → enriched UF6. Russia (Rosatom) ~40%, Urenco consortium (UK/NL/DE/US) ~30%, Orano (France) ~15%, China ~12-15%. 4. Fuel fabrication: enriched UF6 → fuel assemblies. Regionally distributed (Westinghouse, Framatome, TVEL).

The enrichment step is the real chokepoint, not mining. Russia's Rosatom dominance there is the central strategic vulnerability for Western nuclear power.

Price state (verified 2026-04-24)

Current price is ~59% of the 2007 all-time high and up materially from the 2015-2020 bottom (sub-$30/lb). The 2020- 2026 recovery reflects a genuine structural shift — nuclear is having its first demand-side renaissance since the Fukushima 2011 collapse in sentiment.

Where it comes from (pre-wake structural)

Mine production (~60,000 tonnes U/year globally, 2024 est)

• Kazakhstan: ~40-45% — the dominant producer. State

utility Kazatomprom operates the in-situ leach (ISL) mines that make Kazakhstan the low-cost producer globally.

• Canada: ~13-15% — Cameco (Cigar Lake, McArthur River,

Rabbit Lake). High-grade underground mines; swing producer

• Namibia: ~10-12% — Rossing (China General Nuclear),

Husab (China General Nuclear). Chinese-controlled

• Australia: ~8-10% — Olympic Dam (BHP, byproduct),

Four Mile. Ranger mine wound down

• Uzbekistan + Niger: ~5-7% each — both politically

volatile

• Russia: ~5-7% (domestic production)
• Rest: South Africa, China domestic, US (tiny), India

Conversion (5 plants globally)

• ConverDyn / Honeywell (US) — restarted 2023 after years idle
• Cameco (Canada)
• Orano (France)
• Rosatom (Russia)
• CNNC (China)

Enrichment (the chokepoint)

• Rosatom (Russia): ~40% of global enrichment capacity
• Urenco (UK/NL/DE/US): ~30%
• Orano (France): ~15%
• China (CNNC + SWU): ~12-15%
• Other (Japan small, India domestic, Brazil etc.): ~5%

Demand drivers (the nuclear renaissance story, verified per TE)

This is the material whose bull case is most narrative-dependent and also most real. Multiple drivers converging:

1. AI / data centre power demand: the single biggest 2024-2026 driver. Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta signing SMR (small modular reactor) offtake contracts. TE commentary confirms "multiple tech companies are signing contracts for SMRs to power data centers." 2. Grid decarbonisation policy: US IRA supports nuclear; EU taxonomy treats nuclear as green. 3. Energy security post-Russia-Ukraine: EU scrambling to replace Russian enrichment. 4. SMR commercialisation: NuScale, X-energy, TerraPower, BWXT, Rolls-Royce SMR, Holtec SMR-300 all at various stages. First SMR deployments expected 2028-2032. 5. Plant life extensions: existing US + EU reactors getting 20-year extensions (60→80 year licenses). 6. Restart of idled plants: Palisades (US), Three Mile Island Unit 1 (US, bought by Microsoft offtake).

US policy specifically (per TE): US reduced regulatory barriers for uranium converters and enrichers + announced $2.7B in deals with Cameco + Centrus for domestic supply.

Russia sanctions story (still in progress)

• US banned imports of Russian enriched uranium (Apr 2024)

with waivers through 2027

• EU has NOT formally sanctioned but utilities are

voluntarily diversifying away

• Rosatom retains ~40% of global enrichment capacity but

can't sell to US directly without waivers post-2027

• Western utilities scrambling to lock in Urenco + Orano

capacity at premium prices

• Centrus (US) restarting HALEU production (for SMR +

research reactors), capacity small but strategic

The sanctions dynamic = tight Western enrichment market at structurally higher prices, even if mining supply is adequate.

Concentration risks (ranked)

1. Rosatom enrichment disruption — either US pushes sanctions post-2027 hard (Western tightness) OR Russia self-restricts (same result) 2. Kazakhstan political event — Kazatomprom controls ~40% of mining; any disruption would spike prices 3. Chinese restriction on Namibian output — Rossing + Husab control is underappreciated exposure 4. SMR deployment delays — most of the demand story is forward-looking; delays could soften near-term prices 5. Renewed nuclear accident / public backlash — low probability but high impact (Fukushima 2011 tanked the market for a decade)

Uranium's bull case is real but longer-dated than most commodities — SMRs don't come online until 2028-2032 at earliest. Current prices are discounting that future.

Players to know

Producers

• Cameco (Canada) — Cigar Lake, McArthur River, swing

producer. Also conversion capacity. The Western pure-play

• Kazatomprom (Kazakhstan) — ~20-25% of global mine

supply directly; state-owned, strategic

• NexGen Energy (Canada, Arrow project) — major

development asset, not yet producing

• Denison Mines (Canada, Wheeler River) — development
• Paladin Energy (Australia/Namibia)
• Energy Fuels (US — REE byproducts + some U)

Enrichment / conversion

• Centrus Energy (US) — HALEU restart, strategic
• Urenco (UK/NL/DE/US government consortium)
• Orano (France)
• Cameco (Canada — Port Hope conversion)
• BWXT (US — defence + SMR fuel)

SMR developers

• NuScale (US)
• X-energy (US, Amazon-backed)
• TerraPower (US, Bill Gates-backed)
• Rolls-Royce SMR (UK)
• Holtec (US, SMR-300)
• Ontario Power Generation + GE Hitachi BWRX-300 (Canada)

Utility buyers

• Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta — increasingly buying

direct

• Constellation Energy (US) — largest US nuclear fleet
• Électricité de France (EDF)
• Exelon, Vistra, Southern Company

What to watch monthly

• Spot uranium price (UxC, Cameco)
• Long-term uranium contract prices (usually quoted

monthly; more relevant for utility economics than spot)

• Kazatomprom production + export updates
• Cameco quarterly guidance
• US HALEU production (Centrus)
• SMR regulatory milestones (NRC approvals, site permits)
• Hyperscaler nuclear offtake announcements
• US / EU utility enrichment contracts with Urenco / Orano

Cross-references

• Reports: docs/minerals/reports/YYYY-MM-uranium.md
• Related: the AI/data-centre demand driver ties uranium to

the semi industry (Nvidia capex → data centres → power) and electrification thesis (copper, gallium, nickel for power infrastructure)

• docs/thinking/2026-04-22-tech-ai-value-chain.md — AI

capex is the demand cross-link