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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Standard Entity List perimeter expansion under 15 CFR Part 744, Supplement No. 4. The rule imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, and in-country transfer of all items subject to the EAR to (or involving) the 37 listed parties, with a policy of presumption of denial and no license exceptions available. The 37 PRC-listed entries split across three overlapping rationale clusters:
1. Quantum-computing acquisition (largest cluster). A predominantly quantum-focused tranche — PRC firms and research institutes attempting to acquire US-origin items to support China's quantum-technology capability. This is the first time BIS designated a quantum-focused tranche of this size on the Entity List, predating by ~four months the 2024-09-05 BIS interim final rule that added new export controls on quantum, biotech, and additive-manufacturing items themselves (i.e. controls on the items, not just the recipients).
2. PRC high-altitude balloon (2023) ties. Parties involved in or linked to the January–February 2023 high-altitude balloon overflight of the continental US — the first time the balloon incident drove a discrete Entity List tranche after BIS's initial six-entry rule in February 2023.
3. Russia diversion. PRC-based parties that shipped US-controlled items onward to Russia in violation of EAR controls — continuing the post-2022 enforcement perimeter that this rule shares with the subsequent FR Doc 2024-14635 (July 2024) and FR Doc 2024-19130 (August 2024, 123 entries).
List as a recipient-side complement to subsequent item-side controls under the 2024-09-05 quantum/biotech/additive-manufacturing IFR. The two together form the upstream-pincer template that BIS has reused for subsequent emerging-technology areas.
February 2023 rule → 37-entry May 2024 rule — as a discrete enforcement track separate from chip-equipment and minerals perimeters.
presumptively non-eligible recipients for any item subject to the EAR; equivalent to the prior treatment of PRC supercomputing institutes after the October 2022 controls.
rationale split (the rule text lists each entity individually but a consolidated industry-by-industry breakdown is not in the rule preamble).
in subsequent BIS Entity List final rules (the 2024-09-16 CFR correction (FR Doc 2024-20887) touched some 2024 vintage entries).
(EU member-state and Japanese research links), where the Entity List itself is extraterritorial only to the extent US-origin items are involved.