Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.

Theme momentum

1themes this action belongs to

Post-2024 US trade + industrial-policy reset

19 filings in 90d

→ steady

The US Department of Commerce published its final affirmative determination of sales at less-than-fair-value in the antidumping investigation of animal feed-grade L-lysine (lysine) from China (case A-570-215) on 23 July 2026, following a preliminary determination published 6 March 2026 (91 FR 11030). Commerce found a China-wide weighted-average dumping margin of 139.83% (cash deposit rate 139.65% after subsidy-offset adjustment), based on adverse facts available after Commerce found Zhengzhou Longgu Trading Co., the sole company with a calculated margin, and the Eppen Group group of producers/exporters uncooperative and ineligible for a separate rate in the final determination. A group of separate-rate companies — including Anhui BBCA Biochemical, Heilongjiang Wanlirunda Biotechnology, and others exporting through trading intermediaries such as Agromate Sg, Ainore (Tianjin), and Aollen Biotech — received a 73.55% dumping margin (73.37% cash deposit rate). The order covers lysine regardless of form (HCl, sulfate, liquid) under HTSUS 2922.41.0090 and related subheadings. A companion countervailing-duty investigation (preliminary 22 January 2026, 91 FR 2745) was finalized the same day; suspension of liquidation runs from 6 March 2026, with a final AD order contingent on an ITC injury determination due within 45 days of the final LTFV finding.

Analyst notesShow

Mechanism

Commerce's Enforcement and Compliance unit investigated lysine imports from China after a petition (initiated around June 2025) alleging sales at less-than-fair-value. The March 2026 preliminary determination set provisional measures and cash-deposit requirements effective from that publication date; the July 2026 final determination confirmed and refined those findings after verification visits (April 2026) and comment briefing.

The 139.83%/139.65% China-wide rate is an adverse-facts-available (AFA) rate — Commerce applied it after finding Zhengzhou Longgu (the only respondent with an individually calculated margin) and the Eppen Group of producers uncooperative, and after denying the Eppen Group separate-rate status in the final determination (a reversal from the preliminary stage). This AFA rate is calculated as a simple average of the top-10 transaction margins found for the Eppen Group. Most named exporters not individually examined but qualifying for a "separate rate" — trading through intermediaries like Agromate Sg, Ainore (Tianjin), Aollen Biotech, Pegasus, and Qiqihar Longjiang Fufeng — instead get the 73.55%/73.37% rate, derived from the same Eppen Group calculation since it was the only non-AFA, non-zero rate on the record.

A parallel countervailing-duty (subsidy) investigation ran on the same timeline and was finalized the same day (23 July 2026); its provisional CVD liquidation-suspension period lapsed in September 2025 under the statutory 120-day cap, so CVD cash deposits are not currently being collected pending the ITC's parallel injury finding.

Downstream implications

China-wide 139.83% effectively closes the US market to any Chinese lysine exporter that cannot

establish a qualifying separate rate — a severity-defining margin for an amino-acid feed additive with limited non-China substitute supply at scale (Indonesia, South Korea, Japan being the main alternative producers).

Order is contingent on the ITC's material-injury determination, due within 45 days of the 20

July 2026 final LTFV finding (i.e., by ~early September 2026); a negative ITC finding would terminate the proceeding and refund all cash deposits.

Downstream US animal-feed and premix manufacturers reliant on Chinese lysine face a near-doubling

of landed cost at the China-wide rate, likely accelerating sourcing shifts to Southeast Asian and South Korean producers (CJ CheilJedang, Ajinomoto affiliates).

Open questions

Whether the ITC's forthcoming injury determination is affirmative — this action's real-world

bite (a formal AD order vs. termination/refund) hinges on that finding.

Whether Eppen Group appeals its final-determination separate-rate denial via the US Court of

International Trade, which could reopen the China-wide-rate assignment for its exports.

Sources

Primary: Federal Register — L-Lysine From China: Final Affirmative Determination of Sales at Less Than Fair Value (2026-14951)

Secondary: Federal Register — L-Lysine From China: Preliminary Affirmative Determination of Sales at Less Than Fair Value (2026-04412) · Global Trade Alert — state act 92359 (provisional AD duty on L-lysine from China)

Loading…

Mechanism

Downstream implications

China-wide 139.83% effectively closes the US market to any Chinese lysine exporter that cannot

Order is contingent on the ITC's material-injury determination, due within 45 days of the 20

July 2026 final LTFV finding (i.e., by ~early September 2026); a negative ITC finding would terminate the proceeding and refund all cash deposits.

Downstream US animal-feed and premix manufacturers reliant on Chinese lysine face a near-doubling

of landed cost at the China-wide rate, likely accelerating sourcing shifts to Southeast Asian and South Korean producers (CJ CheilJedang, Ajinomoto affiliates).

Open questions

Whether the ITC's forthcoming injury determination is affirmative — this action's real-world

bite (a formal AD order vs. termination/refund) hinges on that finding.

Whether Eppen Group appeals its final-determination separate-rate denial via the US Court of

International Trade, which could reopen the China-wide-rate assignment for its exports.