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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Rated 4/5, mixed: this converts an existing 50% ad-valorem duty (the maximum rate Section 338 permits, per 19 U.S.C. 1338) into an outright import ban on the same product set — a categorical, not incremental, escalation — and is issued explicitly in response to Canada's 8 September 2026 retaliation covering roughly $20bn of US exports (per the primary source). No single ad-valorem or quota figure applies to a ban itself, so no magnitude: block is populated; the two disclosed figures (50% prior duty rate, ~$20bn triggering Canadian retaliation) are cited here in the qualitative rationale rather than the structured field, per the never-fabricate-a-magnitude rule.
Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1338) lets the President impose additional duties up to 50% ad valorem, or exclude goods from entry entirely, on a foreign country found to discriminate in fact against US commerce. The predicate actions here are Proclamations 11046 (alcohol), 11047 (dairy) and 11048 (motor vehicles) of 20 July 2026, which imposed 50% Section 338 duties on Canadian goods in those three sectors; those duties took effect 22 August 2026 after a brief negotiated suspension (Proclamation 11056) lapsed when, per the White House, Canada "reneged on its commitment" and did not remove the underlying discrimination. None of Proclamations 11046/11047/11048 appear to have been filed in this register — they predate this action and should be backfilled separately (responds_to here is left empty for that reason; a follow-up action should link back once those are filed).
This 9 September 2026 round is the next escalation step: rather than raise the duty rate again, the administration converts the existing 50% duties on certain alcohol and dairy products into outright import bans, and adds a separate exclusion order for certain motor-vehicle-sector products — triggered explicitly by Canada's 8 September counter-tariffs on ~$20bn of US exports (steel, dairy, agricultural equipment, effective per Canada's own notice the same day). The proclamations simultaneously re-scope the July 20 tariff product lists (dropping rock salt and cement; adding ATVs and further dairy lines), described by the White House as intended "to offset the burden to U.S. commerce while better serving the public interest."
Import bans take effect 29 September 2026; the product-list add/remove takes effect 15 September 2026. These apply regardless of USMCA originating status and stack on top of any Section 232 duties already in force on the same goods.
since 22 August) face a hard US market exclusion rather than a tariff — no duty-absorption or pricing workaround is available once a product is on the exclusion annex.
reach motor-vehicle products specifically via exclusion rather than duty, layering onto the existing Section 232 auto tariff regime.
being actively recalibrated in near-real-time against Canada's own retaliation menu — expect further amendments as the tit-for-tat continues; this action's amendments: block should be updated when the 15 and 29 September effective dates are reached and confirmed, and when Canada's own countermeasures are filed as a separate action.
are gaps in the register and should be backfilled to give this action a proper responds_to chain.
proclamations (only the motor-vehicle exclusion proclamation text was directly sourced) — pull once Federal Register publishes them.
action, and its FR/gazette citation once available.