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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 (19 U.S.C. § 1862) authorises the President to impose import restrictions after the Secretary of Commerce finds that an article is being imported in such quantities or circumstances as to threaten national security. The original findings for steel (2018) and aluminum (2018) remain in place; the 2025 proclamations do not re-run the Commerce inquiry but instead rescind the downstream exclusion arrangements layered on top of those findings.
The Biden-era "alternative measures" structures were:
Section 232-free EU steel to ~3.3 mt/year at a 0% rate with a 25% over-quota rate. A separate framework applied to aluminum.
proclamation.
All of these are revoked. From 12 March 2025, every country including USMCA partners pays 25% on steel and 25% on aluminum with no volume threshold.
The proclamations explicitly invoke national security, supply-chain resilience, and the intent to rebuild domestic productive capacity as justification, citing the Commerce findings and Section 232 authority directly.
aluminum imports; both now face 25% tariffs that were previously excluded, compounding the fentanyl-tariff pressure (see 2025-02-01-us-trump-fentanyl-tariffs-canada-mexico-china).
appliances) faces an immediate input-cost increase. Automakers with integrated North American supply chains are disproportionately exposed.
trade flows since 2021. EU steel association Eurofer signalled potential WTO dispute resolution filings.
Alcoa, Century Aluminum) benefit from the restored protection; the SLX and XME ETFs reflect this exposure.
approach the Biden team pursued, restoring blunt universal rates as a lever for bilateral negotiations rather than as an end-state.
under the 90-day tariff-pause framework active for other tariff lines, or pivot to WTO dispute settlement.
separate bilateral exemption given integrated North American supply chains and the existing 2025-02-01 fentanyl-tariff pressure.
steel capacity is near full utilisation; a structural increase in capacity requires multi-year investment.