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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
The package is the first-ever use of IEEPA (50 USC §1701 et seq., dating to 1977) to impose ad-valorem tariffs. Three parallel structures:
1. Canada (EO 14193). National emergency declared over the flow of illicit drugs (specifically fentanyl) across the US-Canada border. 25% ad valorem on most Canadian imports; 10% on Canadian "energy resources" carved out given US dependence on Canadian crude + electricity. 2. Mexico (EO 14194). National emergency over the situation at the southern border (fentanyl + illegal migration). 25% ad valorem on imports from Mexico; no sector carve-outs. 3. China (EO 14195). National emergency over the synthetic-opioid supply chain. 10% ad valorem on imports from China — additive to the existing §301 China tariffs (which range 7.5%-50% on covered HTS codes); subsequently raised to 20%.
Effective 4 February 2025. On 3 February 2025 (one day before effective date), the administration announced a 30-day pause for Canada and Mexico after their respective leaders agreed to additional border-enforcement measures. The China tariff took effect as scheduled.
had been used continuously since 1977 to impose sanctions + asset freezes on adversarial states + non-state actors. It had never been used to impose ad-valorem tariffs on ordinary trading partners. EO 14193/14194/14195 is the precedent — the Liberation Day regime (filed: 2025-04-02-us-trump-reciprocal-tariff-regime) followed the same legal pathway.
Mexico $475B + China $400B), ~25% of total US imports. The largest single tariff action by trade-volume affected since Smoot-Hawley.
force July 2020) eliminated most US-Canada-Mexico tariffs. These EOs unilaterally re-imposed ad-valorem tariffs on USMCA partners citing emergency authority that USMCA's WTO + bilateral dispute mechanisms cannot reach in real time.
on US LNG + coal + farm equipment, restrictions on rare- earth processing technology exports, anti-monopoly investigations. China's response confirmed the proportional- response pattern.
out cushioned the largest Canadian export sector (commodities), but auto + manufacturing components faced the full 25%. Subsequent bilateral framework deal absorbed some of the impact.
manufacturing + agro ETFs hit hard until the 30-day pause.
surface; the additional 10% (later 20%) was a quantifiable but not transformational increment until Liberation Day layered the further 34% → 84% → 125% China-specific rates.
Canada parts caught both ways; auto-supply-chain re-architecting accelerated through 2025 H1.
/actions/themes/post-2024-us-trade-reset theme. The other three actions in that theme (§301 hikes, Liberation Day, DPA §303) trace the through-line.
appeal addresses whether IEEPA authorises ad-valorem tariffs of this kind. A Federal Circuit ruling against IEEPA tariff authority would force unwind of EO 14193, 14194, 14195, AND EO 14257 (Liberation Day). The appeal is the single most consequential pending legal item in the IPTM register.
review (2026) with potential 16-year sunset. The Feb-2025 tariffs created the conditions for early USMCA re- negotiation; bilateral framework deals are the pre-review positioning.
bilateral deals had been extended through Q2 2025 with partial tariff relief; track quarterly for stability.
This action backfills the post-2024 US trade reset theme, authored from prior knowledge + verified live primary sources (all 3 WH EOs reachable, IEEPA statutory text verified). Not poller-sourced; the WH presidential-actions feed only carries the most recent ~10 items so February 2025 actions sit outside its window. Future poller additions (Federal Register agency feeds, USTR equivalent) would have caught this in real time.