US Commerce Preliminary Affirmative Antidumping Determination: Tin Mill Products from China (September 2026)

Mechanism

Commerce's Enforcement and Compliance unit found that Chinese producers/exporters of tin mill products (tinplate and related tin-coated steel sheet used chiefly for food, beverage and aerosol cans) did not cooperate with the antidumping questionnaire, so the China-wide entity rate of 136.52% rests on adverse facts available (AFA) rather than a calculated company-specific margin — no respondent-specific rates were assigned. The rate is adjusted downward to a 130.17% cash-deposit rate to avoid double-counting export subsidies already captured in the companion countervailing-duty case (preliminary CVD determination, 2026-09-10, case A-570-227C). The preliminary affirmative critical-circumstances finding lets Commerce apply provisional measures retroactively to imports entered up to 90 days before the preliminary determination, addressing a surge of pre-duty stockpiling. Case number A-570-228.

Downstream implications

• 130%+ effective duties are close to prohibitive for Chinese tin mill products in

the US market; buyers of tinplate (can-makers, packaging converters) will need to source from non-Chinese mills or pay the duty.

• Petitioner United States Steel Corporation is the direct beneficiary; downstream

packaging/can manufacturers face higher input costs unless alternate supply (e.g. domestic tin mill capacity, or origins not covered by the order) absorbs the volume.

• Final determination due ~2026-12-01 will confirm or adjust the margin; a

concurrent US International Trade Commission injury determination is required before a definitive order issues.

Open questions

• Whether any Chinese producer belatedly cooperates before the final

determination, potentially earning a lower company-specific rate.

• Scale of pre-preliminary-determination import stockpiling caught by the

critical-circumstances retroactive window.