home/actions/themes/us-car-sanctions-perimeter US Central African Republic sanctions perimeter — EO 13667 architecture
US sanctions framework governing the Central African Republic, anchored in Executive Order 13667 (May 2014) and codified at 31 CFR Part 553. The program targets persons threatening CAR's peace, security, or stability — in practice, a dual-purpose instrument covering both domestic armed groups and Russian-linked entities (Wagner Group / Africa Corps) engaged in illicit extraction of CAR gold, diamonds, and timber. Distinct from western-russia-sanctions (which covers the 2014/2022 Russia-Ukraine perimeter) and from us-sudan-sanctions-architecture (a separate African stability framework with its own EO chain).
1 actionpeak severity 2· 1 countries targeted· 2 sectors· 1 issuer· avg sev 2.0
Forecast claim
In this theme: 0 response chains detected across 1 issuer→target vector.
Ranked issuer→target vectors · likelihood-sorted
whyno prior responses on record — base rate from sev 2 + sector continuity 0%
Method: Vector L = 0.5·hit-rate + 0.15·min(triggers,5)/5 + 0.20·baseSev/5 + 0.15·sector-Jaccard. Hit-rate is the fraction of theme triggers (X→Y) where the original target Y subsequently issued a register-tracked action that names the trigger in its responds_to: field. Sector-Jaccard measures continuity between trigger and response target_sectors — high values mean prior responses stayed in the same sector lane, suggesting the next riposte will too. This is a backward-looking pattern projected forward; it is not a probabilistic forecast.