Outlook pitch-surface claim audit

Corpus-wide sweep of /companies/[slug]/outlook — the pitch surface — through its own selection logic (lib/outlook-selection.ts), without rendering. See the header of scripts/audit-outlook-claims.ts for why each class exists and why (a), (b2) and (d) are NOTE, permanently, rather than FAIL.

Re-run: npx tsx scripts/audit-outlook-claims.ts

Last run: 2026-10-05T19:45:14.099Z Companies swept: 2827 (every dossier in the corpus) Result: 0 FAIL, 1 WARN, 3 NOTE

The unsplit (b) total is 1117 occurrence(s) across 1010 companies — reported here in full so the split cannot be read as the number getting smaller.

Of those occurrences, 0 involve a name with no dossier in the corpus at all. Zero — which is the actionable half of this finding: every unknown-verdict name already HAS a dossier here, it just carries no deployment-status phrase deploymentStatus() can read. This is a content gap in dossiers we already own, not a research gap on entities we know nothing about.

(a), (b2) and (d) are coverage facts, not defects. They are not fixable by this script, and (b2) names are already rendered under the page's own non-dismissible "research bench, not a switch you can make today" line with a per-row unknown chip. They must never move the exit code — a gate that can never go green is how a real finding gets scrolled past (R167).

Work list — worst 20 companies by (b1)+(c)

None. No company carries a baseless alternative or a capture contradiction.

(b1) baseless alternative padding a switch list — first 40 occurrences

None.

(c) capture contradiction — first 40 occurrences

None.

(e) silent match miss — first 40 occurrences

• iluka-resources — zirconium — dossier bullet "Zircon (not scored in this platform)." exists but the matcher missed it (card falls back to "no product note")

(b2) baseless alternative under the labelled research bench — first 40 occurrences

• 000100 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 000660-ks — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 000825 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 000898 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 0175-hk — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 0175-hk — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 047810 — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 0489-hk — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 066570-ks — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 1211-hk — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 2308-tw — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 2333 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 2338-hk — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 2382-tw — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 285a — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 300274-sz — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 3808-hk — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 3d-systems — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 3d-systems — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 3sun — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 4005-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 4188-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 600104 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6301-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6301-t — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6326 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6594-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6723-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6753 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6758-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6861 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6902-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 6971-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7012-t — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7202-t — Australian Vanadium (AU) listed on the vanadium substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7203-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7211-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7267-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7735 — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• 7751-t — Exxaro Resources Limited (ZA) listed on the silicon substitute bench with no deployment evidence
• …and 1077 more (re-run with --json for the full list).

Owner-inspected companies — current pitch (dated snapshot, not a test)

The four pages the owner reviewed by hand. Recorded here rather than pinned in a test because the forward queue changes daily; tests/outlook-selection.test.ts proves the ordering against the pre-extraction logic instead.

• siemens-gamesa-sa — Malawi — Presidential Executive Order banning export of all raw/unprocessed minerals (effective 21 Oct 2025) (supply-restriction, score 32) · DRC — Interministerial Arrêté Banning Export of Unprocessed Copper and Cobalt Concentrates (29 June 2026, replaces 4 August 2023 framework) (supply-restriction, score 32) · China — MOFCOM/GACC suspension of ordinary industrial & smelter-byproduct sulfuric acid exports (in force from 1 May 2026) (supply-restriction, score 32) · US-China Bilateral Rare Earth Minerals Deal Framework (supply-restriction, score 32) · Kazakhstan Subsoil Code 2026 amendments — domestic-content rise to 70% (incl. uranium), geological-data digitisation, e-auctions, strategic-investor priority right (unclassified, score 24)
• mapal — DRC — Interministerial Arrêté Banning Export of Unprocessed Copper and Cobalt Concentrates (29 June 2026, replaces 4 August 2023 framework) (supply-restriction, score 32) · DRC — ARECOMS forfeiture & reallocation of unused H1-2026 cobalt export quotas to the state strategic reserve (in force ~29 June 2026) (supply-restriction, score 32) · DRC Strategic Mineral Reclassification Decree — 6 new minerals (lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, REEs) elevated to strategic tier, royalty 3.5%→10% (unclassified, score 24) · Malawi — Presidential Executive Order banning export of all raw/unprocessed minerals (effective 21 Oct 2025) (supply-restriction, score 16) · Tanzania Finance Bill 2026/27 — Parliament-passed June 23, 2026; mining: Mineral Research Fund (10% gross mineral revenue), Income Tax Act & VAT Framework Agreement exemptions (unclassified, score 16)
• airbus — DRC — Interministerial Arrêté Banning Export of Unprocessed Copper and Cobalt Concentrates (29 June 2026, replaces 4 August 2023 framework) (supply-restriction, score 48) · Tanzania Finance Bill 2026/27 — Parliament-passed June 23, 2026; mining: Mineral Research Fund (10% gross mineral revenue), Income Tax Act & VAT Framework Agreement exemptions (unclassified, score 48) · Malawi — Presidential Executive Order banning export of all raw/unprocessed minerals (effective 21 Oct 2025) (supply-restriction, score 32) · China — MOFCOM/GACC suspension of ordinary industrial & smelter-byproduct sulfuric acid exports (in force from 1 May 2026) (supply-restriction, score 32) · DRC — ARECOMS forfeiture & reallocation of unused H1-2026 cobalt export quotas to the state strategic reserve (in force ~29 June 2026) (supply-restriction, score 32)
• almonty — DRC Strategic Mineral Reclassification Decree — 6 new minerals (lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten, uranium, REEs) elevated to strategic tier, royalty 3.5%→10% (unclassified, score 24) · Nigeria RMRDC 30% Value Addition Bill — mandatory 30% local processing of ALL raw materials before export (beneficiation, score 18) · Uganda Mining and Minerals (Amendment) Bill 2026 (beneficiation, score 15) · EU CRMA Art. 22 Commission Implementing Decision — Strategic Raw Material Stock Benchmarks (compliance, score 12) · Mongolia Minerals Law Comprehensive Amendment 2026 — ~40% of 2006 law revised; exploration-licence term cut, statutory critical-minerals definition, downstream-beneficiation licensing (unclassified, score 12)