intelligence/claims

Empirical claims

20 published. Event studies on policy-shock cohorts, each with an effect size, a p-value, and a re-runnable Python audit. Gate 7.

Company-dossier reader-test kit
31 May 2026· ready-to-administer (no readings recorded yet)
Causal-chain visualizer — reader-test kit
29 May 2026· ready-to-administer (no readings recorded yet)
Empirical claim #1 — US chip-control event study
Empirical claim #6 — European defence-industrial-policy Acts → national-ETF abnormal returns
Empirical claim #3 — Indonesian hilirisasi reflex window
Empirical claim #2 — MOFCOM counter-control reflex window
Empirical claim #4 — Pooled regime-centre own-goal test
Empirical claim #4 (sensitivity) — Non-overlapping pooled own-goal subset
Empirical claim #5 — Russia sanctions reroute and European-bloc drag
Portfolio roll-up — European-listed economic-statecraft exposure (v1 prototype)
5 Jun 2026
Forward-cadence sev-3+ regulator-bulletin first-source filing throughput — 2026-06-04
4 Jun 2026· scripts/py/intelligence/forward_cadence_throughput_audit.py
Forward-cadence sev-4+ filing throughput — 2026-06-04
4 Jun 2026· scripts/py/intelligence/forward_cadence_throughput_audit.py
Forward-cadence sev-3+ filing throughput — 2026-06-04
4 Jun 2026· scripts/py/intelligence/forward_cadence_throughput_audit.py
GATE 9 — Corporate "risk-team-in-a-box" report: critique pass v1
Lead-time audit — 2026-06-01
1 Jun 2026· scripts/py/intelligence/lead_time_audit.py
Outlook pitch-surface claim audit
Gate 4 — Severity decomposition: divergence audit
Source-class audit — 2026-06-04
4 Jun 2026· scripts/py/intelligence/source_class_audit.py
Source-link audit
Verify convergence by pass and claim class (R209)

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Company-dossier reader-test kit

Causal-chain visualizer — reader-test kit

Empirical claim #1 — US chip-control event study

Empirical claim #6 — European defence-industrial-policy Acts → national-ETF abnormal returns

Empirical claim #3 — Indonesian hilirisasi reflex window

Empirical claim #2 — MOFCOM counter-control reflex window

Empirical claim #4 — Pooled regime-centre own-goal test

Empirical claim #4 (sensitivity) — Non-overlapping pooled own-goal subset

Empirical claim #5 — Russia sanctions reroute and European-bloc drag

Portfolio roll-up — European-listed economic-statecraft exposure (v1 prototype)

Forward-cadence sev-3+ regulator-bulletin first-source filing throughput — 2026-06-04

Forward-cadence sev-4+ filing throughput — 2026-06-04

Forward-cadence sev-3+ filing throughput — 2026-06-04

GATE 9 — Corporate "risk-team-in-a-box" report: critique pass v1

Lead-time audit — 2026-06-01

Outlook pitch-surface claim audit

Gate 4 — Severity decomposition: divergence audit

Source-class audit — 2026-06-04

Source-link audit

Verify convergence by pass and claim class (R209)

Company-dossier reader-test kit

Causal-chain visualizer — reader-test kit

Empirical claim #1 — US chip-control event study

Empirical claim #6 — European defence-industrial-policy Acts → national-ETF abnormal returns

Empirical claim #3 — Indonesian hilirisasi reflex window

Empirical claim #2 — MOFCOM counter-control reflex window

Empirical claim #4 — Pooled regime-centre own-goal test

Empirical claim #4 (sensitivity) — Non-overlapping pooled own-goal subset

Empirical claim #5 — Russia sanctions reroute and European-bloc drag

Portfolio roll-up — European-listed economic-statecraft exposure (v1 prototype)

Forward-cadence sev-3+ regulator-bulletin first-source filing throughput — 2026-06-04

Forward-cadence sev-4+ filing throughput — 2026-06-04

Forward-cadence sev-3+ filing throughput — 2026-06-04

GATE 9 — Corporate "risk-team-in-a-box" report: critique pass v1

Lead-time audit — 2026-06-01

Outlook pitch-surface claim audit

Gate 4 — Severity decomposition: divergence audit

Source-class audit — 2026-06-04

Source-link audit

Verify convergence by pass and claim class (R209)