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One screen answering: “if the dominant supplier halts, who can fill the gap, how fast, at what regulatory risk?” Replaces manual cross-referencing of the production table with the IPTM register.
If China refining (80% of global) halts: 4 substitutes cover 100% of non-CN capacity · fastest ramp 6-12mo (DE) · highest policy-risk: US (score 5.4, 3 filings).
Stage: Polysilicon (solar-grade + electronic-grade) · Year: 2025 · Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (Feb 2026 release; 2025 data).
Post-removal HHI = 2,901 (high). Lead-time is a heuristic from share-of-stage (≥10% → 0-6mo brownfield · ≥2% → 6-12mo ramp · >0 → 12-24mo new line · 0 + supplier-directory present → 24-36mo greenfield). Policy-risk = Σ over last-24m silicon filings issued by that country (severity × polarity-sign × 5y-linear recency). This measures a country's own export-restriction behaviour only — it is a separate axis from Western sanctions exposure (flagged below in red where it applies). A country with zero restrictive filings can still be sanctioned by the US/EU/UK and therefore not a real sourcing option.
Silicon-metal AND polysilicon both China-dominant — China ~84% of silicon-metal smelter output (USGS MCS 2026; "almost 80%" on the broader FeSi + silicon-metal combined basis). Electronic-grade polysilicon (semiconductor wafers) is more diversified than solar-grade. Polysilicon refining HHI roughly doubled 2014→2024 (~3000→~6500) as Wacker / Hemlock / OCI lost share to Chinese capacity. November 7, 2025: silicon was added to the US Final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (90 FR 50494) along with copper, lead, potash, rhenium, silver. April 2025 US ITC ferrosilicon countervailing/antidumping orders against Brazil + Kazakhstan + Malaysia mark the first US trade-defence action specifically targeting silicon supply.