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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Designation under E.O. 13902 (Iran petroleum/petrochemical sector sanctions), implementing National Security Presidential Memorandum 2 (NSPM-2, filed 2025-02-04 as 2025-02-04-us-nspm-2-iran-maximum-pressure). Mohammad Hossein Shamkhani built a shadow shipping empire — oil tankers and containerships — by rotating vessel operators/managers frequently to obscure ultimate ownership, using aliases ("H," "Hector," "Hugo Hayek" on a Dominica passport), and layering special-purpose vehicles across offshore jurisdictions (e.g. Marshall Islands-registered Oka Shipping). UAE-based Marvise SMC DMCC (formerly Mairin Ship Management) and predecessor Armada Global Shipping DMCC served as umbrella managers controlling dozens of vessels that publicly appeared independently owned. The network has prior sanctions history: Oceanlink Maritime DMCC was designated 2024-04-04 for facilitating shipments on behalf of Iran's MODAFL-affiliate Sepehr Energy (itself designated 2023-11-29), and the same Crios Shipping entity was separately implicated in 2024 in shipping missile/drone components and dual-use goods from Iran to Russia in exchange for Russian petroleum. All designated parties' US property is blocked and US persons are barred from transacting with them; secondary-sanctions exposure applies to non-US parties that knowingly facilitate significant transactions with the network.
(predominantly Chinese refiners, per Treasury's own description) face secondary-sanctions exposure on future liftings from newly blocked vessels.
and Marshall Islands face compliance pressure to re-screen beneficial ownership given the network's demonstrated pattern of rotating operators to defeat sanctions screening.
reconstitutes — later OFAC rounds (2025-09, 2025-10, 2025-12, 2026-04, 2026-05, 2026-07 per the register) continued designating adjacent shadow-fleet vessels and entities, consistent with this being an early/major node in an ongoing enforcement sequence rather than a one-off action.
exports is not disclosed by Treasury in quantitative terms beyond "significant portion" / "tens of billions of dollars in profit" — no barrel or dollar figure given for this specific tranche.
vessels under E.O. 13846/13902) overlap with or are additive to OFAC's 50+/50+ count is not fully disentangled in the primary source.