Saudi Arabia 9th Mining Exploration Licensing Round (172 sites awarded across three Arabian Shield mineral belts; SAR 44 bn project value)

Mechanism

The 9th Exploration Licensing Round is the cumulative-largest mining-licensing instrument issued by Saudi Arabia under the 2020 Mining Investment Law (Royal Decree M/47). Mechanically it operates on three tracks:

1. Multi-belt geological coverage. The round opened over 24,000 km² across three named gold-bearing mineral belts of the Arabian Shield: Ad-Duwaihi/Nabitah (Riyadh region — the same belt hosting Ma'aden's existing Ad-Duwaihi gold mine), Nuqrah (Madinah region), and Sukhaybirah/As-Safra (Qassim region). The sites are not gold-only: copper, zinc, nickel, phosphate, REE, and lithium occurrences are documented in the same intrusive and volcanogenic-massive-sulphide assemblages.

2. Two-stage award mechanism. Of the 172 awarded sites, 76 were cleared via multi-round public auction on the Ministry's e-bidding platform (teaden), and the remainder via the standard exploration-licence application track under the M/47 auction provisions. 26 pre-qualified companies and consortia participated; 24 won at least one site.

3. Front-loaded work-programme commitments. The 24 winners committed over SAR 671 million of exploration spend in years 1-2 of their licences. Aggregate project value across the round (including downstream development capex announced on the back of the awards) exceeds SAR 44 billion (~USD 11.7 bn), representing a 220% YoY surge in licensing-round commitments versus the 2024 (8th) round per SPA's Ministry briefing.

4. JV-vehicle inclusion. The 9th round is the first to formally include the Aramco-Ma'aden lithium-extraction joint venture (Manara Minerals) on the bidder side, embedding Aramco's downstream-chemicals competence and Ma'aden's mining operations into a single state-aligned vehicle for critical-minerals exploration.

Why severity 3

This is the largest mining-licensing round in Saudi history and the first major operational expansion of Saudi critical-minerals supply under Vision 2030 since the 2022 National Industrial Strategy (2022-10-18-saudi-arabia-national-industrial-strategy) and the November 2025 US-Saudi Strategic Framework (2025-11-18-us-saudi-strategic-framework-critical-minerals-supply-chains). Severity 3 (rather than 4) reflects:

• Exploration-stage licences only. Awards confer

exploration rights, not production. Production capacity appears 5-10 years downstream subject to discovery, FID, and EPC.

• No tariff / trade-flow change. Unlike the China minerals

counter-strike series, the 9th round does not alter cross-border trade flows in the near term.

• Quantum justifies the floor at 3. SAR 44 bn aggregate

commitment, 220% YoY surge, and explicit feedstock alignment with the US-Saudi REE refinery (MP Materials/Ma'aden/DoW term sheet of 19 November 2025) make this materially load-bearing for the 2026-2030 Saudi critical-minerals-supply trajectory.

Downstream implications

• Ma'aden (TADAWUL: 1211). Direct beneficiary as the

dominant Saudi state mining operator and likely consortium member on multiple awarded sites. Expands feedstock optionality for the MP/DoW/Ma'aden REE refinery JV. Anchors the strategic premium on Ma'aden equity inside KSA / GULF ETFs.

• Manara Minerals (Aramco-Ma'aden JV). First licensing

round including the JV as a bidder. Operationalises Manara's declared mandate of acquiring lithium and battery-metals exposure both inside and outside the Kingdom.

• REMX, LIT, COPX. Adds a third major non-China processing

and exploration node (alongside Australia and Canada) to the global rare-earth and lithium pipeline. Reduces processing concentration risk that historically discounts these ETFs.

• PRC counter-action probability. Increases the likelihood

of further MOFCOM tightening on REE / Cu / Ni processing technology, equipment, and engineering-services exports — the next likely escalation layer if Beijing wants to disrupt Saudi critical-minerals scale-up.

• EM-resource-nationalism comparison. Distinct from the

Indonesian, DRC, Chilean and Zimbabwean playbooks (export bans + downstream-mandate frameworks): the Saudi 9th round is upstream-licensing-led and US-aligned in offtake. It represents an alternative high-capital, US-strategically-coupled route to upstream-resource capture that other GCC states (Oman, UAE) are likely to emulate.

Open questions

• Per-licence break-down of the 172 sites. MIM has not

published a public registry mapping each site to its awarded entity; required to map company-level exposure for the register's company_refs.

• Discovery and FID timing. Exploration-licence work

programmes typically run 3-5 years; the SAR 44 bn aggregate is a project-value commitment, not a near-term capex flow. Watch for first FID announcements in 2027-2028.

• Manara Minerals lithium feedstock outcome. The first

round including Manara as a bidder is a structural test of whether Aramco's JV vehicle can secure exploration acreage at scale. Disclosure of Manara's specific awards is the next data point.

• Linkage to US-Saudi REE refinery feedstock. Whether any

9th-round REE-bearing licences will be channelled into the MP/DoW/Ma'aden refinery JV as in-Kingdom feedstock or whether the refinery remains a tolling facility for global ore.

• Foreign-bidder share. The 24-winner list spans

international and Saudi consortia per Ministry briefing; a full nationality breakdown (Chinese vs Western vs Gulf capital share) is the most consequential geopolitical metric and remains unpublished as of the announcement.