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Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Section 1260H of the FY2021 NDAA requires the Secretary of Defense to publish annually a list of "Chinese military companies" — entities determined to be owned or controlled by, or affiliated with, the People's Liberation Army, the Ministry of State Security, or affiliated front organisations, operating directly or indirectly in the United States. The list carries two distinct procurement-restriction triggers:
1. Direct contracting ban (10 U.S.C. § 4871): DoD may not enter contracts with, or procure goods/services/technology from, any entity on the list. Effective June 30, 2026. 2. Supply-chain procurement ban: DoD and its prime contractors (and all sub-tiers) are prohibited from sourcing components or services from listed entities. Effective June 30, 2027.
The June 2026 update is the largest single-cycle expansion in the list's history. The 65 new entities cover sectors that were previously absent or underrepresented: consumer internet (Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent), electric vehicles and batteries (BYD, NIO, CATL), display and optical components (BOE Technology), shipping and logistics (COSCO SHIPPING), and commercial drones/robotics (DJI, Unitree Robotics, RoboSense, Hesai). The prior cycle (January 2025) had focused primarily on semiconductor and aerospace-related entities.
Causal linkage to China counter-measure: This designation is the proximate trigger for China's MOFCOM Announcement No. 23 (June 22, 2026), which added MP Materials, USA Rare Earth, Lynas Rare Earths, and other Western rare-earth producers to China's Export Control Management List. The retaliatory symmetry — US designates Chinese mining/energy companies, China immediately counter-lists Western critical-mineral producers — marks a new escalatory rung in the bilateral economic-security confrontation (see slug 2026-06-22-cn-mofcom-announcement-23-entity-list-mp-materials-usa-rare-earth).