A four-action escalation series demonstrating China's retaliation playbook. The pattern is now stable:
1. 2023-07-03 Ga + Ge licensing - global target, severity 4. First template; framed as national security, in practice chokes Western compound-semi + defence-grade germanium. 2. 2023-10-20 Graphite licensing - global target, severity 4. Targets battery-anode supply chain (natural flake + synthetic graphite). China holds >90% of spherical graphite processing. Came three days after the Oct-17 BIS chip-controls expansion. 3. 2024-12-03 Ga + Ge + Sb full ban to US - first time MOFCOM framed an export-control measure with a named-country target. Came one day after the Dec-2 BIS package adding 140 Chinese entities to the Entity List. Severity 5. 4. 2025-04-04 Heavy + medium REE licensing - Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc, Y. Two days after Trump's April-2 reciprocal-tariff regime. Severity 5 globally; US-skewed in practice.
Notably absent from the April-2025 list: neodymium and praseodymium - the two largest rare-earths by volume. China is signalling escalation reserve.
Why this regime matters
The materials named here are at China's structural supply-chain chokepoints (USGS 2024-25):
- Gallium: ~80% of global primary refined output
- Germanium: ~60% of global production
- Graphite (spherical/synthetic anode-grade): >90% of processing
- Antimony: ~48% of global mine output
- Heavy rare earths (Tb, Dy, Lu): >85% of refined output
Western consumers must source from third-country producers (Korea, Belgium, Russia, Bolivia, Lynas), which themselves source much of their input from China. Strategic stockpiles are short. Each MOFCOM measure forces accelerated DLA / DOD / EU-CRMA stockpile purchases and triggers domestic-substitution projects (Perpetua antimony, Rio Tinto Kennecott germanium, MP Materials, Lynas USA Texas separation).
Durability and forward path
The proportional-response pattern is established. Track:
- Licence-approval rate + average latency post each measure
(leading indicator of intent: structural control vs negotiating instrument)
- Whether China extends to Nd / Pr - single most-watched
escalation. Probability rises if US adds new entity-list designations or escalates chip controls in 2025 H2.
- Cross-references to the Minerals Atlas:
/minerals/germanium-gallium, /minerals/neodymium.