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What they make, where they produce, the materials that matter — then what is coming, what it would do to the business, and the moves available. Sector: mining metals. Company profile →
United Company RUSAL is one of the world's largest primary aluminium producers (3.92 million tonnes in 2025), vertically integrated from bauxite mining and alumina refining (6.86 million tonnes alumina, 18.
45 million tonnes bauxite in 2025) through smelting to downstream products — extrusion billet, rolling slab, foundry alloys, wire rod, foil and high-purity aluminium. It runs alumina refineries at Achinsk, Bogoslovsk and Pikalevo in Russia plus international assets (Guinea bauxite, equity stakes in Chinese and Indian refineries). It is legally domiciled in Russia (redomiciled from Jersey to Kaliningrad in 2020) and remains under US/UK/EU sanctions exposure tied to founder Oleg Deripaska. RUSAL also holds a roughly 26-28% minority equity stake in Norilsk Nickel, a separately managed company — that is a financial holding, not RUSAL's own operating output, and is not counted below.
Verbatim from the dossier's “What they do” section — sources on the company profile.
This is where United Company RUSAL produces — approximate output shares from its dossier — not where it sells. Sales geography is not yet in our corpus for any company, so we cannot compute exposure to measures that bite on where products ship: an extraterritorial re-export rule follows the shipment and its material content, not the factory. Where such a measure touches its materials, the policy sections below flag it — but its sales-side incidence is not computable yet, and we say so rather than substitute the production map for it.
Of everything in its products, we track the critical inputs — the materials whose supply is concentrated in few countries, policy-exposed, or hard to substitute — because those are the ones a single measure can move. Each carries its role in the product, quoted from the dossier's own exposure note.
Gallium — trace byproduct. RUSAL extracts high-purity gallium (99.99-99.
Silicon — primary product, contracting. RUSAL produces smelter-grade and refined silicon metal for aluminium alloying and electronics use via its Kremniy (Irkutsk) and Silicon Ural plants. Kremniy — Russia's largest refined-silicon producer — is being shut down from 1 January 2026 on Chinese import competition, cutting RUSAL's 2025 silicon output to roughly 35,000 tonnes (down…
Aluminium — bulk input / primary product. Aluminium smelting is RUSAL's core business and revenue driver. As a producer rather than a consumer, RUSAL's exposure is inverted relative to most dossiers in this register: sanctions or trade restrictions on Russian aluminium are a market-access/price risk to RUSAL's own output (e.
Scope. The non-critical remainder of the bill of materials — structural steel, polymers, glass and the like — is not tracked here because it is not supply-constrained: this section covers the constrained inputs, which is where policy risk concentrates, not a full bill of materials.
The top 5 are ranked mechanically — what the instrument does (its transmission class: an export ban is not a reporting duty), × how close to law (stage-derived likelihood band, never a probability) × how much of your tracked bill of materials it touches. Each unfolds as a chain: trigger → what it hits → the response the instrument actually calls for. A measure touching a material you produce can be an opportunity, not a threat.
GN · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches aluminium · flagged 10 Sept 2026, 26d pending
On 6 August 2026, at a ceremony at the Petit Palais of the Presidency chaired by Djiba Diakité (Minister Chief of Staff, chair of the Simandou 2040 Strategic Committee), Guinea's wholly state-owned Nimba Mining Company (NMC SA) signed its first mining convention, covering bauxite extraction at Tinguilinta and export via the Port of Kamsar — a 690. 20 km² concession in Boké Prefecture, 25-year term, refinery requirement, no tax exemptions. This operationalises NMC, which was created by the 5 August 2025 presidential decree revoking GAC/EGA's bauxite concession (already filed: 2025-08-05-guinea-presidential-decree-gac-nimba-mining-sa) — since start-up NMC has extracted ~5 Mt bauxite, exported ~4 Mt in 2026, and the Mines Ministry projects 8-10 Mt for 2026, 12 Mt 2027, 14 Mt 2028. Executive-signed and in force operationally, but multiple outlets state the convention text still requires National Transition Council ratification before Journal Officiel publication — parked on axis 2 rather than filed as enacted pending that primary text. Guinea = priority-tier chokepoint (bauxite, ~world's top exporter).
source ↗Aluminium — bulk input / primary product. Aluminium smelting is RUSAL's core business and revenue driver. As a producer rather than a consumer, RUSAL's exposure is inverted relative to most dossiers in this register: sanctions or trade restrictions on Russian aluminium are a market-access/price risk to RUSAL's own output (e.
The filed text doesn't state this instrument's mechanism clearly enough to classify, so we don't guess a response — the measure text above is the read.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
MW · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches aluminium · flagged 13 Aug 2026, 54d pending
President Peter Mutharika signed an executive order (dated 23 Oct 2025, effective 21 Oct 2025, announced at Sanjika Palace during a cabinet swearing-in) prohibiting the export of raw/unprocessed minerals extracted in Malawi — uranium, rare earth elements, niobium, graphite, tantalum, bauxite, coal, limestone, gemstones, heavy mineral sands, vermiculite, phosphate, rutile, gold, diamonds, copper and others — with an exemption for minerals processed/refined/value-added domestically per Malawian mining law. Announced alongside a suspension of new mining-licence issuance and a review of mining laws (2026/27 State of the Nation Address), plus a planned sovereign wealth fund. Stated rationale: local beneficiation, targeting up to USD 500m/yr once the Kasiya rutile/graphite deposit (Lilongwe) and Kangankunde rare-earth project (Balaka, Mkango Resources — Africa's prospective first new REE mine since 2017, targeting late-2026 production) are fully developed. Violators face fines/penalties under Malawian law. MW is currently the THINNEST country in the register (1 prior action) despite this breadth of minerals covered. Export-ban/beneficiation-mandate, same instrument class as Zimbabwe's SI 213/2022 raw-mineral bans and Guinea's 2026 gold-export ban already in the register.
source ↗Aluminium — bulk input / primary product. Aluminium smelting is RUSAL's core business and revenue driver. As a producer rather than a consumer, RUSAL's exposure is inverted relative to most dossiers in this register: sanctions or trade restrictions on Russian aluminium are a market-access/price risk to RUSAL's own output (e.
The prohibition covers the raw/unprocessed form; material processed in Malawi stays exportable under the order's own exemption — so a Malawi processing route remains open alongside the alternatives below.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
GN · stage in-consultation → moderate likelihood · touches aluminium · flagged 16 Jun 2026, 112d pending
Guinea = world's #2 bauxite producer (183 Mt exported in 2025, ~45% of China's bauxite imports); Mines Minister Bouna Sylla confirmed in March 2026 that export volume curbs will be applied by early April 2026 to halt a ~50% price collapse from 2025 overproduction; target cap ~150 Mt/yr (≈18% reduction from 2025 actual); enforced via licence compliance — operators exceeding feasibility-study production ceilings face volume restrictions, not an outright export ban; formal policy instrument expected June 2026 per Bloomberg/Mining. com; mechanism: production-cap enforcement rather than new legislation, but a ministerial arrêté is the likely vehicle
source ↗Aluminium — bulk input / primary product. Aluminium smelting is RUSAL's core business and revenue driver. As a producer rather than a consumer, RUSAL's exposure is inverted relative to most dossiers in this register: sanctions or trade restrictions on Russian aluminium are a market-access/price risk to RUSAL's own output (e.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
EU · stage awaiting-signature → high likelihood · touches galliumsilicon · flagged 15 Jun 2026, 113d pending
Establishes the first legally binding "safe level" benchmark for EU strategic stocks of each of the 17 strategic raw materials listed in the CRMA Annex I; benchmarks used as reference by Member States, financial institutions, and industrial consumers to assess strategic supply risk; mandated every 2 years, so this is the first edition setting the baseline; informs CRMA Art. 23 monitoring obligations and is the evidential basis for Art. 24 corporate-reporting thresholds
source ↗Gallium — trace byproduct. RUSAL extracts high-purity gallium (99.99-99.
Silicon — primary product, contracting. RUSAL produces smelter-grade and refined silicon metal for aluminium alloying and electronics use via its Kremniy (Irkutsk) and Silicon Ural plants. Kremniy — Russia's largest refined-silicon producer — is being shut down from 1 January 2026 on Chinese import competition, cutting RUSAL's 2025 silicon output to roughly 35,000 tonnes (down…
This is a reporting / disclosure obligation — it does not prohibit importing from anywhere, so there is no supplier to switch and we list none. What you must do is what the measure's own text above describes: map the supply chain it covers, run the audit, and file. Its text states no filing deadline — we don't invent one.
Mapping your supply chain is exactly the work this obligation requires — your MacroLens exposure report is that map's starting point.
TZ · stage awaiting-signature → high likelihood · touches silicon · flagged 28 Jun 2026, 100d pending
The same Finance Bill 2026/27 already tabled (Parliament-passed 23 June 2026, effective 1 July 2026) inserts a NEW export levy of "10% of the FOB value of the cargo OR TZS 200 per kilogram, whichever is higher" on exports of quartz minerals (HS 25. 06) and feldspar (HS 2529. 10. 00) via amendment to the Export Tax Act, Cap. 196 — a distinct beneficiation-forcing EXPORT-TAX instrument that pushes raw quartz/feldspar exporters toward in-country value-addition. 196), and neither existing entry mentions it; (2) material-relevant — quartz HS 25. 06 covers high-purity/silica quartz feeding the silicon→semiconductor/solar value chain, so a Tanzanian export tax re-prices a raw-silica supply node; the same "rocks to riches" beneficiation logic Tanzania applies elsewhere; (3) part of the wider African raw-mineral-export-tax wave (cf. Zimbabwe 10% lithium-concentrate levy, Namibia unprocessed-mineral ban, Guinea bauxite reference price).
source ↗Silicon — primary product, contracting. RUSAL produces smelter-grade and refined silicon metal for aluminium alloying and electronics use via its Kremniy (Irkutsk) and Silicon Ural plants. Kremniy — Russia's largest refined-silicon producer — is being shut down from 1 January 2026 on Chinese import competition, cutting RUSAL's 2025 silicon output to roughly 35,000 tonnes (down…
This changes the form of what TZ exports, not whether you can buy: raw/unprocessed exports are restricted while domestically processed material stays available — that is the measure's own mechanism. Your TZ-origin raw feed becomes processed-only; the route is a value-added purchase or a TZ processing partner, not a supplier switch.
silicon — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
Council's general approach expands the Commission's proposed downstream scope further (more products than Commission proposed); mandates annual Commission review for future scope additions; adds anti…
Cabinet-cleared bill to replace the 2006 Minerals and Mining Act, Act 703: raises mining royalties from current 3–5% range to 9–12% (price-linked sliding scale), introduces a new medium-scale mining…
Madagascar's Council of Ministers approved resumption of mining-permit issuance on ~28-29 Jan 2026, ending a moratorium in place since 2010 (imposed during a political transition amid mining-title sp…
Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Energy Mamadou Sangafowa-Coulibaly formally launched the revision of Côte d'Ivoire's 2014 Mining Code on 13 June 2026, standing up an expert team drawn from his minis…
Gold mining royalties rise from 3-5% to 9-12% sliding-scale (price-indexed); mining lease maximum cut 30→15 years with renewals limited to 2×10-year additional terms; Development Agreements and Inves…
~25% reduction in Guinea's annual bauxite shipments to China (150 Mt target vs.
Extends the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism from the existing Regulation (EU) 2023/956 sectors (steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, electricity) to approximately 180 downstream produc…
On 18 March 2026 Guinea's Minister of Mines Bouna Sylla told Reuters that Guinea — the world's top bauxite exporter (~40% of global seaborne supply, 2025 exports ~183 Mt, +25% y/y) — would reduce exp…
Guinea — the world's largest bauxite exporter (~single-largest feed to China's alumina/aluminium chain) — is preparing a sector-wide measure to CAP/reduce bauxite exports to stabilise falling prices…
RESourceEU (COM(2025) 945, 3 Dec 2025) commits the Commission to establish a **European Critical Raw Materials Centre** in early 2026 with four functions: (a) generate **systemic market intelligence…
Second wave of CRMA Art.
On 7 September 2026 Guinea's state-owned Nimba Mining Company and Glencore signed a five-year pre-financing agreement, announced by the government and Glencore on 10 September 2026, worth over USD 30…
On 10 July 2026 the African Development Bank Group, with the African Union Commission, the AfCFTA Secretariat and UNECA, convened African ministers of mining/energy/industry in Abidjan for the "Minis…
Supersedes 2022 bauxite reference price arrêté; establishes real-time FOB benchmark for all Guinea bauxite exports (~182 Mt/yr, world's largest supplier); estimated >$1bn/yr additional government rev…
Guinea's CNRD junta gives Societe Minière de Boke (SMB, China-linked, ~50% of Guinea's bauxite output) and Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG, joint venture: Halco Mining/Alcoa/Rio Tinto/Dadco) 10…
GN ≈ 60% global seaborne bauxite; a ~150 Mt/yr cap (vs 183 Mt 2025) tightens the alumina→aluminium chain — direct hit to EU aluminium-vertical names
VP declared no new large-scale mining agreement will be concluded without a binding value-addition commitment; Mines Minister referenced Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ghana, and Malawi precedents for raw-miner…
On 16 November 2025 Brazil's national development bank BNDES signed a BRL 221 million (~USD 41.
Ministry of Mines issued operational guidelines for the Mining Sector Reforms component under Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI) FY2026-27, with total ₹5,000 crore…
4 of 54 filed an explicit in-force stage; the rest (flagged below) default from an absent stage: field, not a filed assertion. Each links to the register entry with its primary source.
⚠ Extraterritorial measure — switching supplier origin may not exit its scope.
China State Council enacts unified Regulations on Export Control of Dual-Use Items claims reach over foreign-made goods (“extraterritorial”) — the rule follows the material, not the seller, so an alternative outside the issuer can still be captured if its products contain or are made with in-scope inputs. Verify each alternative's feedstock origin before treating it as an exit.
For a material it buys, a restriction tightens supply and raises input cost — a headwind. For the 3 it produces, the same restriction supports pricing — a tailwind. Scores are footprint-adjusted and buyer-relative (0–100, higher = more exposed).
Its customers sit in ev batteries, permanent magnets, ev motors, wind turbines, defence… — read via the graph's critical minerals node, the nearest equivalent of its sector. A measure supporting those sectors supports demand for this company's products; one restricting them puts that demand at risk. The sign shown is the mechanical read — click through to judge whether a measure protects or constrains the customer.
Every tracked material is on the supply side — the strategy here is positioning, not substitution.
This company sits on the supply side of gallium. Restrictions by 🇨🇳 CN push buyers toward ex-CN producers — the strategy is to be visible where those buyers look: the gallium chokepoint page and the watchlist.
This company sits on the supply side of silicon. Restrictions by 🇨🇳 CN push buyers toward ex-CN producers — the strategy is to be visible where those buyers look: the silicon chokepoint page and the watchlist.
This company sits on the supply side of aluminium. Restrictions by 🇨🇳 CN push buyers toward ex-CN producers — the strategy is to be visible where those buyers look: the aluminium chokepoint page and the watchlist.
lib/policy-transmission.ts): an export prohibition in the measure's name/text → supply restriction; a raw/unprocessed-export limit or local-processing mandate → beneficiation (form change, not unavailability); reporting/disclosure/due-diligence language → compliance obligation; tariff/trade-remedy language → import cost; subsidy/fast-track/relaxation language → support; investment-screening/M&A language → investment control. When the text carries no signal we fall back to the action-type default and label the chip inferred; when neither exists the card says so and derives no response — we never assert a class the evidence doesn't support.lib/iptm-material-country-production.ts; mining stage preferred, refining as fallback — the stage and source year are in each figure's hover text). Ex-issuer supply removes the ISSUING country and renormalises the remaining listed shares (so they sum to 100% of what's left) — alternatives to the country making the rule, never a default ex-China list. Where the issuer holds no measurable share, the card says so plainly instead of implying supply loss.lib/alternative-viability.ts): each named alternative carries a deployment status — operating / ramping / restarting / development / unknown — derived from word-boundary signal phrases in its own dossier (“operating since 1896”, “restarting the … mine”, “FID taken”), and the verbatim matched phrase is shown as the basis so the claim is auditable; a dossier with no signal stays unknown, never guessed. Any evidenced production date is quoted verbatim (“first production targeted H2 2029” → “no tonnes before 2029”) — we never synthesize one. A measure whose own text claims extraterritorial / re-export / de-minimis / foreign-direct-product / percentage-of-value scope triggers the origin-switching warning above the list: such a rule follows the material, not the seller, so a foreign-made alternative can still be captured. Same-issuer register actions targeting an alternative's country and material mark it may be captured, with the entries linked. “Capacity partly committed” lines quote the dossier verbatim — we hold no structured free-capacity numbers and never imply a utilisation figure.How MacroLens tracks this for you. The policy register files new measures daily and this page recomputes from it — the same chokepoints are monitored live on the watchlist and in the full register.