Brazil PlanGEO 2026-2035 — Decennial Mineral Resources Research Plan

Mechanism

PlanGEO is the SGB-led decennial planning instrument that determines where Brazil's federal geological-survey investment lands over 2026-2035. It is not a subsidy or a tariff — it is an upstream inventory-creation policy that converts Brazil's still largely under-mapped subsoil into bankable exploration targets. The 145 priority areas were selected via public consultation, and the ten commodity priorities are explicitly framed around three demand drivers:

• Energy transition — REE for permanent magnets (EV motors, offshore

wind), Li / Cu / Ni / Mn / graphite for batteries, Sn for solder.

• Food security / fertilisers — phosphate and potassium reduce import

dependence (Brazil imports ~95% of its potash, mostly from Russia / Belarus).

• Industrial inputs — gold and copper for monetary / industrial use.

The enabling legal instrument is Portaria Normativa nº 72/GM/MME of 13 March 2024, which established the planning schedule that PlanGEO fulfils. Final-report release on 24 September 2025 was framed by Minister Alexandre Silveira around critical-minerals security; the implementation horizon then opens in 2026.

The plan presents two execution scenarios:

• Scenario 1 — current SGB staffing and average funding of the past

five years (continuation case).

• Scenario 2 — at least 50% increase in the executing geological team

and a 100% expansion in annual financial investment over the decade.

Scenario 2 is the publicly-signalled ambition; actual budget appropriations will be determined annually through the LOA / PPA cycle.

Position in the Brazil critical-minerals stack

PlanGEO is the upstream-mapping pin that completes the Brazil critical- minerals stack already filed in the register:

• Upstream (this filing) — PlanGEO 2026-2035 inventories what's there.
• Industrial-policy umbrella — 2024-01-22-brazil-nova-industria-brasil-nib

(Nova Indústria Brasil) sets the demand and incentive frame.

• Strategic-minerals financing — 2025-11-14-brazil-portaria-mme-120-strategic-minerals-debentures

channels capital into the projects that PlanGEO targets identify.

• Downstream demand pull — 2024-06-27-brazil-mover-programme-lei-14902

(auto-decarbonisation / EVs) and 2024-08-02-brazil-lei-14948-low-carbon-hydrogen-framework build the consuming-side demand.

• Bilateral diplomacy — 2026-02-21-india-brazil-critical-minerals-mou

externalises the resulting deal-flow.

Without a current geological-research priority list, the bilateral-MoU and debenture-financing instruments don't have a defined investable opportunity set. PlanGEO supplies that.

Quantitative anchors

• Brazil holds the world's second-largest rare-earth-oxide repository

(~21 Mt REO equivalent, USGS).

• ~95% of global niobium reserves; 4th-largest manganese reserves.
• Significant Li / Cu / Ni reserves; 145 priority research areas now

defined for ten years of mapping and characterisation work.

Downstream implications

• Bullish for Brazil-listed mining majors and juniors — Vale (VALE),

CBMM (private, niobium), CSN Mineração (CMIN3), Sigma Lithium (SGML), Atlas Lithium (ATLX). The map of the next decade's exploration investment becomes public, lowering geological risk for foreign capital.

• Bullish for non-China-aligned REE-magnet supply — pairs with the

filed Japan-EU and EU-US bilateral instruments to anchor an alternative to Chinese REE processing capacity.

• Cross-feeds the queued Japan-France Caremag axis — French heavy-REE

refining capacity needs feedstock; PlanGEO targets one of the few non- Chinese REE deposits at scale.

• Negative-of-negative for fertiliser import dependence — phosphate /

potassium priority research is a hedge against Russia-Belarus potash concentration risk that the Russia-sanctions stack has highlighted.

Open questions

• What is the actual annual federal budget appropriation for SGB under

Scenario 2, and does Lula's 2026 LOA fund it? The plan defines targets but the financing remains the binding constraint.

• Does any of the 145 priority areas overlap with Indigenous lands or

conservation units that would block exploration permits? The Foreign Investors Guide does not detail this.

• Will PlanGEO outputs be made available to non-Brazilian-domiciled

juniors on the same terms as domestic players, or does the Lei 15122/2025 economic-reciprocity logic apply to upstream geological data?