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Structured register of government actions in the geoeconomic space — export controls, tariffs, sanctions, FDI screening, subsidies, industrial-policy laws — cross-referenced into the country, minerals, and ETF surface. Charter: docs/IPTM_CHARTER.md.
Severity 1-5 is the qualitative impact rating (1=minor, 5=structural). The bilateral-trade-grounded quant scorer is the next IPTM milestone. RBI (Register Breadth Index) is a complementary structural-breadth indicator from scripts/py/iptm/breadth.py; divergence between RBI and severity is itself informative (high-sev / low-RBI = strategic chokepoint; low-sev / high-RBI = broad but shallow). Every action has at least one primary source URL. Verify-or-don't-file. See also themes, timeline, graph, sankey, map, country exposure, sector exposure, material exposure (+ graph), weekly briefs, portfolio scan, escalation monitor, trans-shipment hubs. Internal triage tools (RSS-poller candidate feed, source-feed health) live under /admin/candidates + /admin/sources. Subscribe via Atom feed (accepts ?country=CN, ?material=lithium, ?issuer=BIS, ?type=export_control, ?etf=SOXX, ?company=NVDA, ?minSeverity=4, ?year=2026, ?q=…) or pull /api/iptm/actions.
On 2 October 2026 the European Commission approved a EUR 170 million Bulgarian State aid scheme (case SA.124701), under the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF, adopted 29 April 2026), compensating farmers engaged in primary agricultural production for increased fuel and fertiliser costs. Aid is disbursed as direct grants capped at EUR 50,000 per undertaking, calculated on the basis of the price increases and combining fuel and fertiliser support across the framework period. The scheme runs until 31 December 2026.
Following President Xi Jinping's September 2026 Washington summit with President Trump, the newly formed US-China Board of Trade released its first concrete output: "30-FOR-30" lists naming US and Chinese products recommended for reciprocal reduced-tariff treatment, covering roughly $30 billion of goods on each side. US exports named include agricultural products, wood products and cosmetics; Chinese exports named include small appliances, toys and decorations. The Board — established after the May 2026 Trump-Xi Beijing summit and preceded by a June 2026 USTR request for comments — describes the lists as recommendations only: any actual preferential tariff treatment remains subject to further decisions by both governments, so no tariff rate has yet changed.
Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2101 of 24 September 2026 imposes a definitive anti-dumping duty, and definitively collects the provisional duty, on imports of pea protein originating in the People's Republic of China. The product is pea protein containing more than 65% protein on a dry-weight basis, from any pea type (yellow or green field peas), solid or liquid, textured or not. Press reports put the definitive duties at 40.5%-67.1% by exporting producer, for five years, following provisional duties applied since 29 April 2026 under Regulation (EU) 2026/916.
On 23 September 2026 USTR announced the final country allocations of the FY2027 WTO tariff-rate quota for imported raw cane sugar. The total quota is 1,117,195 metric tons raw value (MTRV), the WTO minimum commitment; 1,061,202 MTRV was allocated by notice of 24 July 2026 (91 FR 46822) and the remaining 55,993 MTRV is distributed to additional countries in this announcement. In-quota quantities may enter the United States from 1 October 2026, and allocations to net sugar-importing countries require origin documentation and certificates of quota eligibility.
The Department of Food & Public Distribution raised the sugar stock-holding limit for bulk consumers — entities producing or consuming more than 10 tonnes of sugar per month — from 15 days to 30 days of consumption, effective immediately ahead of the festive season. The doubled ceiling applies only to sugar sourced under the Advance Authorisation Scheme (AAS) or Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) import routes; stock bought on the open market remains capped at 15 days. Covered consumers must now file a weekly stock declaration every Friday on the DFPD's foodstock.dfpd.gov.in portal.
On 14 September 2026 the European Commission approved a EUR 52 million (RON 277 million) Romanian State aid scheme, under the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF, adopted 29 April 2026), compensating cattle farmers for increased fuel and fertiliser costs. Aid is disbursed as direct grants capped at EUR 50,000 per beneficiary company, assessed under Article 107(3)(c) TFEU and Sections 1 and 2.1 of METSAF. The scheme runs until 31 December 2026.
President Trump signed an executive order on 4 September 2026 directing the Secretary of Agriculture to prioritise Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement against concentrated meat-packer buying power (the four largest beef packers control ~85% of purchases, up from 36% four decades ago), modernise meat-inspection rules to lower processing costs, expand interstate shipment of state-inspected meat via a new USDA coordinator role, and establish a "Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers" guaranteed loan program for small and regional beef processors. The order sets 60-day reporting deadlines for USDA but does not itself appropriate or specify a dollar figure for the new loan program.
On 1 September 2026 the European Commission approved a EUR 30 million Portuguese State aid scheme, under the Middle East Crisis Temporary State Aid Framework (METSAF, adopted 29 April 2026), compensating agricultural, fishery and aquaculture businesses for increased fuel and fertiliser costs. Fishing and aquaculture operators receive direct grants of EUR 0.10 per litre of marine diesel consumed between 1 April and 30 June 2026; agricultural beneficiaries receive payments scaled to farm size and livestock numbers to offset higher fertiliser costs. Individual beneficiaries are capped at EUR 50,000 and the scheme runs until 31 December 2026.
On 26 August 2026, President Trump signed a proclamation temporarily expanding the in-quota tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings by 300,000 metric tons, released in three 100,000 mt tranches over 90 days starting 1 September 2026. The additional volume lets eligible trading partners (excluding FTA partners and countries with existing country-specific quotas) import lean beef trimmings for combination with U.S. beef into ground beef at the lower in-quota duty rate rather than the higher out-of-quota rate, on a first-come, first-served basis across four specific HTSUS statistical lines. Importers are directed to pass through a 25% discount from the going import price. The measure responds to elevated U.S. ground-beef prices driven by a shrunken domestic cattle herd and screwworm-related border disruption, and follows an earlier TRQ expansion the White House dates to 6 February 2026.
On 24 July 2026 Commerce's International Trade Administration published the preliminary results of the first full five-year ("sunset") review of the countervailing duty order on phosphate fertilizers from Morocco (case C-714-004, in force since 2021). Commerce preliminarily determined that revoking the order would likely lead to continuation or recurrence of a countervailable subsidy to OCP Group at a rate of 20.04% ad valorem — well above OCP's most recent administrative-review rate of 16.81% and the 2.11% rate that applied after a December 2025 court remand. The review is procedural and does not itself change the duty currently being collected; it addresses whether the underlying CVD order survives long-term, separate from the temporary emergency AD/CVD duty-free window the White House granted on 29 June 2026.
On 29 June 2026 the US President declared an emergency under Section 318(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1318(a)) over "threats to the availability of sufficient supplies of fertilizers to meet expected agricultural demand" and suspended collection of duties and estimated-duty deposits under 19 U.S.C. §§1671, 1675 and 1677j — the countervailing and antidumping statutes — on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco. The suspension runs for the earlier of eight months from the proclamation date or termination of the emergency, and effectively lifts the AD/CVD wall (already reduced to a 2.11% CVD rate by a December 2025 Court of International Trade remand in the OCP case) on Moroccan phosphate imports. Morocco (OCP Group) holds roughly 70% of world phosphate-rock reserves and is the single largest external phosphate-fertilizer source into the US farm supply chain.
On 4 June 2026 USTR published a formal Notice of Determination in the Federal Register (doc 2026-11158, docket USTR-2025-0043) concluding that Brazil's acts, policies, and practices in six areas — digital trade and electronic payment services, unfair preferential tariffs, anti-corruption enforcement, IP protection, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation — are unreasonable and burden US commerce. Simultaneously, USTR proposed a 25% ad valorem tariff on all Brazilian-origin goods, subject to ~1,600 HTS subheading exclusions including approximately 430 civil-aircraft lines. A public hearing is scheduled for 6 July 2026 and USTR faces a statutory deadline of 15 July 2026 to finalise any responsive action; the tariff has not yet taken effect.
On 3 June 2026 Brazil's Câmara de Comércio Exterior (GECEX/CAMEX) published Resolução nº 907/2026 in the Diário Oficial da União (8 June 2026), applying a definitive anti-dumping duty for up to five years on imports of whole and skimmed milk powder (leite em pó integral e desnatado, não fracionado — NCM 0402.10.10, 0402.10.90, 0402.21.10, 0402.21.20, 0402.29.10, 0402.29.20) originating in Argentina and Uruguay. In the same resolution, GECEX immediately suspended the exigibility of those duties on public-interest grounds, pending the formal opening and conclusion of a public-interest evaluation procedure by Secex — making this a definitive-duty-recognised-but-unenforced measure. The investigation was initiated in December 2024 on petition by the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA), with Argentina and Uruguay together supplying 86% of Brazil's powdered-milk imports (754 million litre-equivalents of a 1.02-billion-litre total in Jan–May 2026).
On June 2, 2026, USTR published final actionability findings in 60 parallel Section 301(b) investigations — the largest simultaneous Section 301 action in US history — determining that all 60 economies maintain unreasonable acts, policies, or practices by failing to impose or effectively enforce a prohibition on imports produced with forced labor. USTR proposed two additional duty rates: 10% on the 14 economies with partial forced-labor regimes (Canada, Ecuador, EU, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan, UK) and 12.5% on the remaining 46 economies. Tariff rates remain proposed pending a July 7, 2026 public hearing and subsequent finalization; the actionability determination is final.
On 20 May 2026, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement on two Commission regulations implementing the tariff elements of the EU-US Joint Statement of 21 August 2025. The main regulation (COM(2025)0471) eliminates remaining EU customs duties on US industrial goods and grants preferential market access for US seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products. The second regulation (COM(2025)0472) extends the suspension of EU duties on US lobster imports (including processed lobster) retroactively from 1 August 2025. Both regulations sunset on 31 December 2029 and include a Commission safeguard mechanism to suspend concessions if the US fails to meet its Joint Statement commitments.
DGFT Notification No. 16/2026-27 (13 May 2026) escalated the export policy for sugar under ITC(HS) codes 1701 14 90 (raw sugar) and 1701 99 90 (white and refined sugar) from "Restricted" to "Prohibited" with immediate effect, covering all three commercial grades. The prohibition runs until 30 September 2026, or until a further Central Government order, whichever is earlier. The measure is a pre-emptive domestic price-stabilisation step ahead of an uncertain 2025-26 sugarcane season; carve-outs preserve EU and US CXL/Tariff-Rate-Quota obligations, Advance Authorisation Scheme exports, government-to-government shipments, and consignments already in the physical export pipeline before 13 May 2026.
Decision No. 190 of 2026 of Egypt's Minister of Investment and Foreign Trade Mohamed Farid, published in the Egyptian Official Gazette (الوقائع المصرية) issue No. 98 (annex / تابع) on 4 May 2026 and effective the following day, imposes a temporary US$90 per metric ton export duty on all nitrogen-based fertilizers (principally urea and ammonium nitrate) for a three-month window expiring early August 2026, with extension possible. The duty is paid in Egyptian pounds at the Central Bank of Egypt prevailing rate at the time of each transaction. Phosphatic fertilizers are excluded. The stated rationale is securing domestic supply availability during a global nitrogen-price surge driven by Russian/Ukrainian supply disruption, Iranian production losses, and seasonal demand. Egypt is the world's #7 nitrogen-fertilizer exporter (≈3.54 Mt exported in 2024); the measure quadruples the prior nominal export-tax level on the segment.
Minister of Trade Regulation No. 12 of 2026, signed by Trade Minister Budi Santoso and effective on its date of promulgation (29 April 2026), is the fifth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on Export Policy and Regulation. It introduces a new discretionary authority — distinct from administrative sanctions — for the Director General of Foreign Trade to suspend issuance of, freeze, and revoke Business Licensing in the Export Sector (Perizinan Berusaha di Bidang Ekspor), and to suspend verification / technical-tracing services. Crucially, it institutionalises cross-ministerial initiating authority: other ministries and agencies may formally propose suspension / freezing / revocation, with proposals reviewed in coordination meetings convened under the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs or the Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs. Decisions are issued via INATRADE / SINSW with automated notification to exporters. The stated rationale is protecting national interests, public welfare, government-programme implementation, and presidential directives — operationalised as safeguarding domestic supply of "certain goods" (palm oil, rice, sugar, mineral, and fertiliser categories cited in policy framing).
The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced on April 28, 2026 that China will extend zero-tariff treatment (preferential tariff rate of 0%) to all 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, effective May 1, 2026 through April 30, 2028. The measure adds 20 African non-LDC nations to the existing zero-tariff scheme already covering 33 African LDCs since December 2024, making China the first major economy to grant full-coverage zero-tariff access to all African diplomatic partners. Coverage extends to all tariff lines except out-of-quota products (where only in-quota rates move to zero); eSwatini is excluded as it maintains diplomatic relations with Taiwan rather than the PRC.
Resolution of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 431 of 17 April 2026, signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, sets temporary export quotas on mineral fertilisers from Russia for the six-month period 1 June – 30 November 2026. The aggregate quota is approximately 20 million tonnes, comprising over 8.7 Mt for nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium sulphate, UAN), over 4.2 Mt for ammonium nitrate (a separate sub-quota, suspended from 21 March – 21 April 2026 before this cycle opened), and over 7 Mt for complex fertilisers (NPK, NP, NPS, DAP, MAP). The measure continues the recurring six-month quota architecture in place since late 2021 and is the direct successor to the Dec 2024 – May 2025 cycle fixed under Resolution 1400 of October 2024 (and its subsequent extensions). Exemptions apply to EEU members, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, humanitarian-aid lots, and transit flows.
Turkey's Ministry of Trade Export General Directorate issued a circular on 6 April 2026 prohibiting exports of sulphur classified under customs tariff position 2503 (excluding sublimed, precipitated, and colloidal sulphur) effective 7 April 2026 through 30 September 2026. The measure was requested by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in response to a 35–40% surge in domestic sulphur prices and supply shortages triggered by Middle East conflict disruptions to global sulphur flows. Turkey exported approximately 226,500 tonnes of sulphur in 2025, primarily to Egypt, Tanzania, Greece, and Lebanon; Tüpraş's regular 8,000-tonne monthly Mediterranean spot tender was suspended immediately. The ban compounds Russia's concurrent sulphur export ban (Decree No. 350, extended to 30 June 2026), compressing Mediterranean and East African sulphur availability during the global spring–summer fertiliser demand peak.
Government Resolution No. 350 of 31 March 2026 extended Russia's temporary ban on exports of liquid, granulated, and lump sulphur (HS 2503) through 30 June 2026. The measure was originally introduced by Resolution No. 1470 of 28 October 2025 (effective 1 November 2025) to stabilise raw-material supply for domestic mineral-fertiliser production, and had been successively extended through December 2025 and March 2026 before this latest extension. Exemptions apply to EAEU member states, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia; a concurrent GTA-recorded instrument (state-act 97135) converted certain lower-grade sulphur grades to a licensing regime rather than an outright ban.
Minister of Trade Regulation No. 6 of 2026 (Permendag 6/2026), signed 26 March 2026 and effective 1 April 2026, amends the appendix of Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export, making four substantive changes to Indonesia's prohibited-export list: (i) nitrogen-containing mineral and chemical fertilizers, including urea in all forms, are added to the prohibited-export list as a food-security instrument; (ii) rice is removed from the prohibited-export list, partially reversing a long-standing prohibition; (iii) rough wood, sawn wood, and wood carpentry and building products are added as value-added-export-requirement items, extending Indonesia's hilirisasi downstream-processing doctrine from minerals into the forestry-products sector; and (iv) rattan weaving materials remain prohibited for export. Together with the simultaneously enacted Permendag 5/2026 (fourth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on export-licensing procedures), this forms Indonesia's most consequential 2026 export-regulation package.
President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 110 on March 24, 2026, declaring a one-year State of National Energy Emergency in response to Middle East supply disruptions, including potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, that threaten petroleum import flows to the Philippines. The order activates the Unified Package for Livelihoods, Industry, Food, and Transport (UPLIFT), suspends normal procurement requirements for emergency energy acquisition, grants the Department of Energy (DOE) emergency fuel-import authority, and releases a ₱20 billion emergency fund to secure fuel supply. The emergency regime also mandates accelerated renewable-energy transition and promotion of EVs in public transport to reduce long-run import dependency.
On 13 March 2026 USTR Jamieson Greer and Ecuador's Minister of Production, Foreign Trade and Investment Luis Alberto Jaramillo signed the United States–Ecuador Agreement on Reciprocal Trade in Washington, formalising the framework agreed in November 2025. Ecuador commits to preferential treatment for >90% of its agricultural schedule (including tariff elimination on soybeans, fresh/processed fruit, alcoholic beverages, tea, tree/ground nuts, dairy, beef, pork and poultry), to discontinue applying the Andean Price Band System to US-origin agricultural goods, to accept US remanufactured goods and US motor-vehicle safety/emissions standards, and to commit on digital-trade non-discrimination plus the multilateral moratorium on customs duties on electronic transmissions. The US in return grants MFN tariff treatment to qualifying Ecuadorian goods that "cannot be grown, mined, or naturally produced" in the US, by 1 August 2026 or entry into force (whichever is later). The Agreement enters into force 30 days after both parties notify completion of domestic procedures.
Guinea's Conseil National de la Transition (CNT) adopted two laws on March 5, 2026 — Loi-Plan L/2026/004/CNT (2026–2040 development plan) and Loi-Programme L/2026/005/CNT (2026–2030 implementation programme) — constituting the first-ever national-plan legislation to encode the Simandou 2040 economic-transformation agenda into law. President Mamadi Doumbouya promulgated both laws by presidential decree on March 20, 2026. The programme targets average GDP growth of 10.3% per year, a projected GDP of ~$152B by 2040 (vs. ~$35B today), 122 megaprojects, 36 structural reforms, and >5 million new jobs, with iron ore, bauxite-to-aluminium, energy, infrastructure, and agriculture as the six transformation pillars.
On 1 May 2026 the trade pillar of the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement (the "Interim Trade Agreement", iTA) entered provisional application between the European Union and the four Mercosur states — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — following its publication in the EU Official Journal on 27 February 2026 alongside the broader EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA). The iTA covers goods (eliminating duties on more than 90% of bilateral trade over a transition period including immediate cuts on cars, pharmaceuticals, wine and olive oil), services, government procurement at federal and state level, intellectual property (344 EU geographical indications protected), SPS/TBT disciplines, and a sustainability chapter. Mercosur receives tariff-rate quotas on agri-food exports (beef, poultry, sugar, ethanol, honey). Provisional application proceeds pending full ratification of EMPA by the Council, European Parliament and all EU national parliaments and a pending CJEU opinion; only the trade pillar applies provisionally.
India's Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), under the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, issued Notification No. 62/2025-26 on 24 February 2026 permitting the export of 25 Lakh Metric Tonnes (LMT) of wheat under HS Codes 10011900 (durum wheat - other) and 10019910 (other wheat) while keeping the headline export-policy classification as "Prohibited". A second tranche of 25 LMT was authorised by Notification No. 13/2026-27 on 27 April 2026, bringing the cumulative quota envelope to 50 LMT (5 million tonnes). Public Notice No. 05/2026-27 (30 April 2026) prescribed allocation modalities for the second tranche: 18 LMT for large exporters, 5 LMT for state trading entities and cooperatives, and 2 LMT for MSMEs, with online applications open 1-10 May 2026 and authorisations valid for six months. The mechanism partially unwinds the May 2022 blanket wheat export ban (DGFT Notification 06/2015-2020) which had been in continuous force for nearly four years, while preserving DGFT's authority to retighten via the prohibition baseline. Pre-existing government-to-government exports to meet third-country food security needs remain permitted outside the quota envelope.
On 21 February 2026 in New Delhi, during the State Visit of Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, India and Brazil signed a Memorandum of Understanding on Cooperation in the Field of Critical Minerals between India's Ministry of Mines and Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy. The MoU establishes a bilateral framework spanning the entire critical-minerals value chain — exploration, mining, processing, recycling, and refining — with explicit focus on rare-earth elements, lithium, nickel, cobalt, niobium, manganese, and other strategic minerals. It was issued alongside a broader Joint Statement targeting USD 30 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 and a ten-year strategic-partnership roadmap covering AI, defence, energy, agriculture, and digital transformation.
On 19 February 2026 Presidents Trump and Prabowo finalised the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between the United States and Indonesia. The deal locks the US reciprocal tariff on Indonesian imports at 19% (down from the 32% threatened in April 2025), with 0% on a defined list of products and a textile/apparel quota benchmarked to US-cotton/MMF inputs. Indonesia commits to remove export restrictions on all industrial commodities — explicitly including critical minerals across the full value chain — and to grant US investors national treatment in mineral exploration, mining, processing and export. Indonesia also agrees to eliminate tariff barriers on >99% of US-origin goods, while a Freeport-McMoRan MOU extends the Grasberg copper-mine licence (~USD 10bn/yr revenue, world's 2nd largest copper mine) and a parallel commercial package totalling ~USD 33bn (energy USD 15bn, aerospace incl. Boeing USD 13.5bn, agriculture USD 4.5bn) is signed alongside.
President Trump signed Executive Order 14387 on 18 February 2026, invoking Section 101 of the Defense Production Act (DPA) to ensure an adequate domestic supply of elemental phosphorus and glyphosate-based herbicides. The order delegates DPA §101 priority-allocation and contract- direction authority to the Secretary of Agriculture, authorises USDA to direct the production and distribution of these inputs for national-defense purposes, and grants legal immunity to domestic producers acting in compliance with USDA directives. The EO is the first DPA invocation specifically targeting the phosphorus supply chain, reflecting the concentration of global white/yellow phosphorus production in China (~75% share) and the existence of only a single operating US producer.
On 12 February 2026, Ambassador Jamieson Greer of the Office of the United States Trade Representative oversaw the signing of the US-Taiwan Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) in Washington, DC. The instrument was signed under the auspices of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States (TECRO). Headline terms: (i) US IEEPA reciprocal-tariff rate on Taiwan reduced from 20% to 15% and Section 232 auto-parts/timber/lumber rate cut from 25% to 15%; (ii) Taiwan eliminates or reduces 99% of its tariff barriers on US goods, most immediately and the remainder phased over three years; (iii) Taiwan side commits ~USD 85bn in directed purchases through 2029 (USD 44.4bn LNG/crude, USD 15.2bn civil aircraft and engines, USD 25.2bn power equipment); (iv) sectoral chapters covering tariffs, non-tariff barriers, digital trade, economic security, and high-tech supply-chain resilience. Operationally linked to the 15 January 2026 AIT-TECRO Memorandum of Understanding on investment, under which Taiwan pledges USD 250bn in direct Taiwanese-enterprise investment in the US plus USD 250bn in Taiwan-government credit guarantees (USD 500bn total) to fund US-side industrial parks/clusters in advanced semiconductors, energy, and AI manufacturing. Entry into force is conditional on Taiwan's Legislative Yuan completing its review.
On 9 February 2026 USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer and Bangladesh Adviser Sheikh Bashir Uddin signed the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between the United States and Bangladesh in Washington DC — USTR's first ART signing in South Asia, preceding the US-India interim-trade-framework finalisation by three days. The deal locks the US reciprocal tariff on Bangladesh-originating goods at 19% (down from 35% under the April 2025 IEEPA regime) and establishes a zero-percent mechanism for products on the Annex III aligned- partner list (EO 14346, 5 September 2025). Bangladesh commits to significant preferential market access for US industrial and agricultural goods — including chemicals, machinery, motor vehicles, medical devices, ICT equipment, energy products, soy, dairy, beef, poultry, tree nuts, and fruit — and to eliminating specified non- tariff barriers including acceptance of US Federal motor-vehicle safety and emissions standards, FDA certificates, and prior marketing authorisations for medical devices and pharmaceuticals.
On 6 February 2026 South African Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao signed the Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Prosperity (CAEPA) in Pretoria. The framework — non-binding by design — covers four pillars: trade, investment, new-energy, and multilateral cooperation. China commits to provide duty-free access to South African exports under a follow-on Early Harvest Agreement (EHA) scheduled for conclusion by the end of March 2026; a progressive reduction of the 10% Chinese MFN tariff on South African fruit is already underway with full duty-free treatment for fruit scheduled for 1 May 2026. The signing took place against the backdrop of US "reciprocal" tariff pressure on South African exports (30% threatened, ~30,000 jobs at risk) and AGOA preference uncertainty, positioning China as a counterweight market. CAEPA is the first China-Africa bilateral framework structured as a quasi-FTA precursor rather than a FOCAC-style aid/concessional package.
On 6 February 2026 Presidents Trump and Modi announced a framework for an Interim Trade Agreement that resets the bilateral tariff posture installed in 2025. Two operative instruments: (i) an executive order signed 6 February eliminating, effective 7 February 2026, the additional 25% IEEPA "Russian-oil" duty on Indian imports imposed by EO 14329 (27 August 2025), conditional on India's commitment to cease buying Russian crude and to expand defence cooperation; and (ii) reduction of the EO 14257 reciprocal-tariff rate on India from 25% to 18% on listed product categories (textiles and apparel, leather and footwear, plastics and rubber, organic chemicals, home décor, artisanal products, certain machinery), to take effect on finalisation of the Interim Agreement. India commits to eliminate or reduce tariffs on all US industrial goods and a wide range of agricultural products (DDGs, red sorghum, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine, spirits) and to purchase >USD 500bn of US energy, ICT, coal, aircraft and aircraft parts, and precious-metals products over five years. The framework also commits the parties to negotiating "robust, ambitious, and mutually beneficial digital trade rules" and to addressing non-tariff barriers in medical devices, ICT import licensing, and food/agricultural standards. US tariff reductions on Indian generic pharmaceuticals, gems, diamonds, aircraft parts, and certain automotive components are flagged as contingent on completion of the full Interim Agreement.
The Chongqing Municipal Government General Office issued Notice 渝府办发〔2026〕5号 on 2026-02-04, promulgating a "New Ten-Point Policy Supporting High-Quality Development of the Food and Agricultural Product Processing Industry," effective through 2028-12-31. The package includes up to CNY 200 million in funding for enterprises that establish national-level modern agricultural industrial parks or advantaged industrial clusters, directs 60%+ of fiscal steady-state assistance funds toward seven priority processing sub-sectors (grains/oils, meat/eggs/dairy, fruit/ vegetables/tea, leisure foods, condiments, hot-pot ingredients, Chinese medicinal materials), and subsidises new enterprise loans at up to 60% of the benchmark LPR (capped at CNY 2 million per enterprise), alongside a guarantee-fee cap of 0.6% for qualifying borrowers. Global Trade Alert flags the interest-subsidy component as the "Red" (most trade-distorting) intervention type.
On 26 January 2026 Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Circular No. 04/2026/TT-BCT, setting the 2026 in-quota tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for raw-tobacco imports (HS 2401) at 79,199 tonnes, a roughly 5% increase over the 2025 quota of 75,427 tonnes. The circular took effect 15 March 2026 and runs through 31 December 2026, with allocation administered via import licences under Decree No. 69/2018/NĐ-CP and Circular No. 12/2018/TT-BCT. The annual increase follows Vietnam's WTO tariff-rate-quota commitment schedule for raw tobacco rather than a discretionary policy shift.
On 21 January 2026 the Government of the Russian Federation, via Order No. 50-р signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, allocated an additional RUB 26.5 billion (approx. USD 290 million) from the federal budget to continue the 2026 preferential agricultural lending programme administered with the Ministry of Agriculture. The funds subsidise short-term loans for seasonal fieldwork inputs (fuel, seed, mineral fertiliser) and maintain the concessional interest rate on loans to dairy-cattle producers. With this allocation, total 2026 federal subsidisation of the preferential agricultural credit programme reaches RUB 150.1 billion.
BIS issued an Interim Final Rule (IFR) on 21 January 2026 (effective 20 January 2026) easing Export Administration Regulations (EAR) controls on certain civil unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and related technology. The IFR makes two changes: (i) ECCN 9A012.a.1 commercial UAVs with maximum endurance under one hour can now be exported License-Free (NLR) to most Wassenaar Arrangement Participating States (Country Group A:1, excluding Malta, Russia, Ukraine), versus the prior limitation to UK / Australia / Canada only; and (ii) License Exception STA (Strategic Trade Authorization) is expanded to cover certain MT-controlled UAVs that cannot deliver a 500kg payload to 300+ km — including long-range cargo-delivery drones and ECCN 9A120 agricultural-spraying UAVs — for export to Country Group A:5 partners and allies. The IFR implements the export-promotion directive in §6 of EO 14307 (Unleashing American Drone Dominance, 6 June 2025). Comment period closes 19 February 2026.
China's Ministry of Finance, NDRC, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, People's Bank of China and National Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued Cai Jin [2026] No. 4 on 2026-01-19, establishing a central-fiscal loan interest-subsidy scheme for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) operating in 14 designated industrial-chain and emerging-industry sectors. Eligible loans originated from 2026-01-01 receive a 1.5-percentage-point annual interest subsidy for up to two years, capped at RMB 50 million in principal per enterprise (maximum subsidy RMB 1.5 million per enterprise). The policy is tentatively set to run one year with a possible extension.
On January 16, 2026, following Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to Beijing, Canada and China released a joint "Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap" committing both countries to a "healthy, stable and sustainable" trade relationship under a new Strategic Partnership. Canada welcomes Chinese investment in energy, agriculture and consumer products; China welcomes Canadian investment in energy, new materials, aerospace, modern agriculture and advanced manufacturing. Both sides commit to two-way investment and trade in clean and conventional energy and to maintaining open channels to resolve outstanding agricultural trade disputes. The roadmap upgrades the bilateral Joint Economic and Trade Commission to minister-level leadership with annual meetings. It is a political-commitment instrument, not a binding trade agreement, and names no tariff changes, quotas, or specific dollar figures.
On 16 January 2026 the Yunnan Provincial People's Government issued Yunzhengfa [2026] No. 2, a package of 34 policy measures (effective through 2030) to support high-quality development of the Central Yunnan New Area (滇中新区), a national-level new area centred on Kunming. The measures span industrial upgrading, innovation, opening-up and fiscal/land support: transformation of traditional petrochemical and metallurgy industries into "hundred-billion-yuan" clusters, development of semiconductor materials/equipment, new-energy battery materials and non-ferrous/rare-precious-metals manufacturing using Yunnan's mineral and plateau-agriculture resources, and cultivation of low-altitude economy, biomanufacturing and new-materials industries. It also seeks to establish a South/Southeast Asia aircraft-delivery centre and one-stop aviation-maintenance base in the new area.
At a 2026-01-15 State Council Information Office press conference, PBOC Deputy Governor and spokesperson Zou Lan announced eight structural monetary-policy measures, including a CNY 500 billion increase to the agriculture/small-business relending-and-rediscount facility (支农支小 再贷款), within which a new CNY 1 trillion private-enterprise relending line (民营企业再贷款) is carved out to target small and medium-sized private firms specifically. The PBOC also cut relending/rediscount rates across all structural tools by 0.25 percentage points effective 2026-01-19 (one-year relending rate down from 1.5% to 1.25%).
Australia's Treasury applied its annual 1 January indexation to the monetary screening thresholds under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeovers Act 1975, effective 1 January 2026. Most thresholds move with CPI (the 2026 update reflects roughly a 2.3% rise in the June-quarter CPI), producing country-specific changes where thresholds are set relative to free-trade agreement status or country-specific baselines — Global Trade Alert logged threshold decreases for Chile, New Zealand and the United States and increases for India, Hong Kong and Peru in this cycle. Fixed ($0) national- security, residential-land, media and foreign-government-investor thresholds and the non-indexed agricultural-land thresholds ($15m cumulative general; $50m for Thailand) are unchanged.
On 31 December 2025 the Mexican Presidency published a decree amending the 2023 basic-basket import-tariff exemption, removing at least eight staple-food categories — fresh/refrigerated/frozen beef and pork, milk and cream, dry beans, rice, soybean/sunflower/safflower/cotton oils, tilapia fillets (HS 0304.61.01) and sausages (HS 1601.00.03) — from the duty-free list effective 1 January 2026. The decree frames the move as reinforcing Plan México's food self-sufficiency goals (Plan de Autosuficiencia en Frijol, a 2030 domestic-dairy production target) by disincentivizing imports of products with growing domestic production capacity. Transition relief lets basic-basket importers with contracts signed before 31 December 2025 keep the exemption through 31 March 2026, and other registered importers through 31 March 2027, subject to SAT contract filing deadlines.
On 31 December 2025 Mexico's Secretaría de Agricultura y Desarrollo Rural (SADER) published the Acuerdo setting the Reglas de Operación (operating rules) of the "Fertilizantes para el Bienestar" programme for fiscal year 2026 in the Diario Oficial de la Federación. The programme's budget rises to MXN 18.2 billion for 2026, up from MXN 17.5 billion in 2025 (+4%), and continues direct in-kind fertilizer distribution to small-scale producers of priority staple crops (corn, beans, rice) prioritizing women, Indigenous communities, and producers in the country's most marginalized rural municipalities. Global Trade Alert classifies the programme as carrying both a production-subsidy and a local-content-requirement component, effective 1 January through 31 December 2026.
On 27 December 2025 the Government of the Russian Federation, via an order signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, allocated an additional RUB 5 billion (approx. USD 63.9 million) from the government's reserve fund to subsidise preferential interest rates on investment and short-term loans to agricultural producers and processors of crop products. The order amends the government's August 2025 preferential-lending distribution and brings total federal subsidisation of the 2025 preferential agricultural credit programme to RUB 41.7 billion. The measure preserves the subsidised rate on previously issued loans rather than creating new credit lines, freeing working capital for producers to expand output.
The Bank of Thailand and Ministry of Finance, together with the Thai Bankers' Association and Association of International Banks, launched "SMEs Credit Boost," a THB 20 billion (~USD 580 million) new loan-guarantee facility funded through a temporary reduction in commercial banks' 2026 FIDF (Financial Institutions Development Fund) contribution rather than new fiscal spending. The scheme guarantees 15-30% of new bank lending to SMEs and qualifying larger firms in government-prioritised "Reinvent Thailand" sectors, is projected to catalyse roughly THB 100 billion in new credit over 1-2 years, and took effect 2026-01-15.
On 24 December 2025 China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) jointly issued Order No. 37, the Catalogue for Encouraging Foreign Investment in Industries (2025 Edition), effective 1 February 2026 and replacing the 2022 Edition (issued 26 October 2022). The revised catalogue expands to 1,679 total entries — a net increase of 205 and 303 modified relative to 2022 — split between a nationwide catalogue (619 entries, +100, 131 modified) and a regional catalogue for central/western China, the northeast, and Hainan (1,060 entries, +105, 172 modified). Foreign investors in listed sectors qualify for tariff and tax preferences on imported equipment and other incentives under China's foreign-investment regime. The revision prioritises advanced manufacturing and modern services and steers new entries toward inland and border provinces.
The Philippine Department of Agriculture issued Administrative Circular No. 16, Series of 2025, imposing a maximum suggested retail price (MSRP) of PHP 120 per kilogram on imported carrots sold in public and private wet markets within the National Capital Region. The measure took effect 5 December 2025 and was formally circularised 23 December 2025, part of a broader end-2025 MSRP push that also covered pork and onions. It is a domestic price-stabilisation control on an imported staple vegetable rather than a border tariff or quota, but it directly affects the economics of carrot importers and NCR wet-market resellers.