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🎯 18 unanswered restrictive provocations (last 90d) carry a prior tit-for-tat base rate · 4 overdue for a counter · top candidate 🇺🇸US→🇨🇳CN: 16 prior counters (median 10d), 21d unanswered, $580bn bilateral
Recent restrictive actions that no one has countered yet (no inbound responds_to: edge), ranked by a base-rate retaliation-likelihood proxy over the single most-likely retaliating target: priorCounters × (1 + ln(1+tradeBn)) × overdue. priorCounters = how many times the target has historically answered this issuer (reverse responds_to: edges); overdue = days-unanswered ÷ the target's typical counter-lag. Only pairs with a real counter-history are ranked. This is the forward companion to the backward-looking escalation monitor.
Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target→issuer) for prior same-pair provocations. A ranked row means the target has answered this issuer before, this specific provocation has not yet drawn a counter, and (for overdue rows) the typical counter window has already elapsed. Modal type + lag are historical anchors, not a model forecast. 25 further unanswered restrictive provocations have a cross-border target but no prior counter-history for that pair — excluded from the ranking (speculative, not base-rate).