Loading…
Loading…
Base rate computed from analyst-asserted responds_to: edges in the reverse direction (target-country → issuer-country) for prior issuer-actions on the same target. Modal type + lag percentiles only — not a model output. Treat as a historical anchor for sizing counter-response scenarios, not a forecast in itself.
Regulation (EU) 2021/821 empowers the European Commission to update Annex I (the controlled dual-use items list) by delegated act under Article 17, subject to a non-objection scrutiny period from the European Parliament and Council before publication in the Official Journal and entry into force — the same pathway used for the 2025 update (2025-09-08-eu-delegated-regulation-2025-2003-dual-use-update, adopted 8 September 2025, in force 15 November 2025, a ~68-day lag). This 2026 cycle was adopted by the College of Commissioners on 14 September 2026; no Official Journal number or entry-into-force date exists yet, hence stage: proposed and effective_date: null here.
New entries cluster in the same technology layers as the 2025 update: semiconductor fabrication/metrology equipment (ALD, EUV inspection, wafer cleaning), advanced computing integrated circuits with digital processing units, ceramic matrix composites (mullite-reinforced, high-temperature), inductive-sensing rotary encoders, additive- manufacturing systems for energetic materials, chemical vapor deposition equipment for silicon carbide fibre production, and gas-turbine axial compressor development technology — plus updated technical parameters and definitions across existing entries. The Commission's announcement references 10 categories of Annex I as affected but discloses no total count of new entries.
chip-equipment perimeter — ASML, ASM International, Aixtron, Carl Zeiss, and Trumpf face an incrementally wider EU-licensing scope for China-bound shipments once the regulation enters into force.
into force would fall around mid-to-late November 2026 — watch for the OJ delegated-regulation number and update effective_date / stage: in-force then.
publication).
cycle's ALD/EUV/etch scope into new tooling categories not previously controlled.
control-list revisions.