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Structured register of government actions in the geoeconomic space — export controls, tariffs, sanctions, FDI screening, subsidies, industrial-policy laws — cross-referenced into the country, minerals, and ETF surface. Charter: docs/IPTM_CHARTER.md.
Severity 1-5 is the qualitative impact rating (1=minor, 5=structural). The bilateral-trade-grounded quant scorer is the next IPTM milestone. RBI (Register Breadth Index) is a complementary structural-breadth indicator from scripts/py/iptm/breadth.py; divergence between RBI and severity is itself informative (high-sev / low-RBI = strategic chokepoint; low-sev / high-RBI = broad but shallow). Every action has at least one primary source URL. Verify-or-don't-file. See also themes, timeline, graph, sankey, map, country exposure, sector exposure, material exposure (+ graph), weekly briefs, portfolio scan, escalation monitor, trans-shipment hubs. Internal triage tools (RSS-poller candidate feed, source-feed health) live under /admin/candidates + /admin/sources. Subscribe via Atom feed (accepts ?country=CN, ?material=lithium, ?issuer=BIS, ?type=export_control, ?etf=SOXX, ?company=NVDA, ?minSeverity=4, ?year=2026, ?q=…) or pull /api/iptm/actions.
On 20 May 2026 President Prabowo Subianto signed a Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah tentang Tata Kelola Ekspor Komoditas Sumber Daya Alam) establishing PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI) — a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Danantara sovereign-investment holding company — as the sole legal exporter ("eksportir tunggal") for palm oil (CPO and derivatives), thermal and metallurgical coal, and ferroalloys (ferronickel, nickel pig iron, ferromanganese, ferrochrome), representing approximately USD 65 billion in annual Indonesian export proceeds. A phased implementation architecture applies: a transition period from 1 June through 31 August 2026 during which private exporters continue direct contractual relationships but must route all export documentation through DSI as the mandatory single-window reporting layer; followed by full implementation from 1 September 2026 under which DSI assumes the entire export chain including contract negotiation, buyer relationship, shipment booking, and payment receipt. The stated rationale is to strengthen export-flow oversight, eliminate under-invoicing and transfer-pricing-driven capital flight, and improve DHE-SDA foreign-exchange retention compliance.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed it has officially cut the 2026 nickel-ore Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) production ceiling to 260–270 million wet metric tonnes (wmt), down from the ~379 million wmt approved for 2025 — a reduction of roughly one-third. Actual 2026 production is targeted at approximately 209–210 million tonnes. Minister Bahlil Lahadalia framed the cut as a supply-demand balancing measure to stabilise nickel prices and conserve reserves; the government first signalled the production control on 23 December 2025, after which world nickel prices rose from roughly US$14,800/t under oversupply to above US$17,000–18,800/t. This is the operative 2026 application of the annual RKAB cycle established by Permen ESDM 17/2025.
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia signed Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 18 Tahun 2025 ("Permen ESDM 18/2025") on 14 November 2025, Indonesia's first comprehensive ministerial-level framework for the exploration, designation, allocation, and utilisation of rare-earth resources. The regulation operationalises Government Regulation PP 39/2025 (signed 11 September 2025), which inserted a dedicated rare-earths article (Article 18A) into PP 96/2021 on the implementation of mineral and coal mining business activities. It empowers the Minister to designate BUMN (state-owned enterprises) as preferred operators of rare-earth mining and processing, mandates that REE output prioritise domestic strategic industries (defence, electric vehicle batteries, advanced technology, permanent magnets), and routes inventarisation through the geological agency before WIUP (mining business permit areas) are awarded.
On 6 October 2025, President Prabowo Subianto presided over the handover of six confiscated private tin smelters — plus 108 units of heavy equipment, 680.7 tonnes of refined tin, and 22 land parcels — from the Attorney General's Office (Kejaksaan Agung) to state-owned PT Timah Tbk, valued at approximately Rp6–7 trillion (US$362–427M). The six smelters (TIN, RBT, VIP, SIP, MCM, SBS) were seized as proceeds of the landmark PT Timah corruption probe, which found illegal collusion between PT Timah and private smelters causing ~Rp300 trillion in state losses; their transfer to PT Timah effectively consolidates roughly half of Indonesia's refined-tin smelting capacity in state hands, and PT Timah began operating the facilities in early 2026.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Permen ESDM No. 17 of 2025 on procedures for preparing, submitting and approving Work Plans and Budgets (RKAB) and reporting of mineral and coal mining activities. Signed by Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on 30 September 2025 and in force from 3 October 2025, the regulation reverses the 2023 three-year RKAB cycle back to an annual cycle, requires all IUP/IUPK holders to resubmit through the new MinerbaOne digital portal between 1 October and 15 November each year, annuls previously-issued 2026/2027 quotas, and introduces a 5-working-day auto-approval rule. Operationalised by a 2026 nickel-ore RKAB target band of 250–270 million wmt — roughly one third below the 2025 approved quota of ~379 million wmt — explicitly framed as a price-management and conservation instrument. First clear use of the RKAB framework as an explicit market-management lever rather than a domestic-licensing tool.
Indonesia's Ministry of Industry issued Permenperin No. 35 of 2025 on 11 September 2025, signed by Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita, on the Provisions and Procedures for Certification of Local Content Level (TKDN) and Company Benefit Weight (BMP). The regulation takes effect on 11 December 2025 and revokes Permenperin No. 16/2011 along with Permenperin No. 46/2022. It unifies TKDN and BMP into a single certificate, standardises a 5-year validity period (previously 3 years), expands scope to industrial services and mixed goods-service activities (e.g. EPC), introduces a 20-percentage-point bonus for R&D-intensive / Industry-4.0 producers, and accelerates issuance via accredited Independent Verification Institutes (Lembaga Verifikasi Independen / LVI) to roughly 10 working days for general industry and 4 working days for SMEs (IKM).
Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 28 Tahun 2025 tentang Penyelenggaraan Perizinan Berusaha Berbasis Risiko ("PP 28/2025") is the cross-sector business-licensing parent statute signed by President Prabowo Subianto on 5 June 2025, replacing PP 5/2021. It expands the Online Single Submission (OSS) risk-based licensing system to six new sectors (creative economy, geospatial information, cooperatives, investment, electronic system & transaction operators, environment), integrates environmental permitting (AMDAL/UKL-UPL) into OSS, and strengthens layered administrative sanctions. Appendix 1F operationalises a de-facto moratorium: the OSS platform now blocks new business-permit applications for intermediate-nickel production lines — nickel matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), nickel pig iron (NPI), and ferronickel — pushing investment toward higher-value Class-1 / battery-grade nickel sulphate and precursor chemistry. After a four-month grace period, OSS enforcement notifications began October–November 2025, prompting FINI (Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association) exemption petitions on behalf of partially-built projects.
Government Regulation No. 19 of 2025 on Types and Rates of Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) applicable to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, signed by President Prabowo Subianto on 11 Apr 2025 and effective 26 Apr 2025 (15 working days after promulgation), revokes PP 26/2022 and replaces fixed mining royalty rates with a progressive tiered system anchored to international benchmark prices (HMA for nickel, HBA for coal). Headline shifts: nickel ore from fixed 10% to 14–19% by HMA tier; ferronickel 2% → 4–6%; nickel matte 2% → 3.5–5.5%; NPI 5% → 5–7%; copper cathode 2% → 4–7%; tin 3% → 3–10%; gold 3.75–10% → 7–16%; coal up to 13.5% at HBA >USD 90 for >5,200 kcal/kg grades. The regulation is the cornerstone fiscal lever of the Prabowo nickel-downstreaming/hilirisasi 2.0 strategy alongside RKAB-quota tightening that cut national nickel quotas from 272m to 150m tonnes for 2025.
On 24 February 2025 President Prabowo Subianto launched Badan Pengelola Investasi Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara), Indonesia's new state investment-management agency, consolidating around USD 900bn–1tn of Indonesian state-owned-enterprise assets — including Pertamina, PLN, Bank Mandiri, BRI, BNI, Telkom, MIND ID, Antam and Inalum — into a single super-holding modelled on Singapore's Temasek. Danantara was created by the Third Amendment to the BUMN Law (Law No. 1 of 2025, enacted 24 February 2025) and Government Regulation No. 10 of 2025 on its organisation and governance, with board appointments formalised by Presidential Regulation No. 30 of 2025. The agency reports directly to the President, bypassing the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises, and is mandated to deploy SOE balance-sheet capacity into Prabowo's 8% growth target via co-investment in mineral downstreaming, refinery and EV-battery build-out, food security, and semiconductor / data-centre infrastructure.
Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) passed the Fourth Amendment to Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining on 18 February 2025, and the government enacted it as Undang-Undang Nomor 2 Tahun 2025 on 19 March 2025. The amendment statutorily entrenches the long-standing hilirisasi (downstream-utilisation priority) doctrine for IUP/IUPK holders at production stage, opens preferential mining-permit allocation pathways for SMEs, cooperatives, religious-organisation business entities, and BUMN/BUMD, and ties licence issuance to approved RKAB production quotas — operationalising the Bahlil/Prabowo supply-management strategy across nickel, bauxite, copper, cobalt, manganese, tin, and zinc.
Indonesia issued Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah) No. 8 of 2025 on Foreign-Exchange Proceeds from Natural-Resource Exports (DHE SDA), amending PP No. 36/2023. President Prabowo Subianto announced the policy at Merdeka Palace on 17–18 February 2025 and the regulation takes effect on 1 March 2025. It mandates that exporters of non-oil- and-gas mining, plantation, forestry, and fisheries products with export-proceeds value of USD 250,000 or more per shipment retain 100 percent of those foreign-exchange proceeds inside Indonesia's financial system for 12 months — sharply up from the prior 30 percent for 3 months under PP 36/2023. Oil-and-gas exporters remain on the earlier 30 percent / 3-month regime. Permitted in-period uses include rupiah conversion at the holding bank, payment of state obligations in foreign currency, dividend distribution, payment for imported raw materials and capital goods unavailable domestically, and servicing of foreign-currency capital-expenditure loans. Non-compliance carries administrative sanctions including suspension of export services. The government has projected the measure could lift retained foreign- exchange proceeds by USD 80 billion in 2025 and over USD 100 billion on a full 12-month basis.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) mandated a 40% biodiesel blend in diesel fuel (B40), effective January 1, 2025, stepping up from the prior B35 standard under Keputusan Menteri ESDM No. 341.K/EK.01/MEM.E/2024. The 2025 allocation totals 15.6 million kiloliters (7.55m kL PSO + 8.07m kL non-PSO), absorbing approximately 15.62 million kL of crude palm oil (CPO) into domestic biofuel production. The measure is projected to save Rp25 trillion annually in foreign-exchange versus B35 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 41.46 million tonnes CO2e per year. The government has signalled an advance to B50 by 2026 to eliminate diesel imports entirely.
On 3 January 2025 President Prabowo Subianto signed Keputusan Presiden (Keppres) No. 1 of 2025, establishing the Satuan Tugas Percepatan Hilirisasi dan Ketahanan Energi Nasional (Task Force for the Acceleration of Downstreaming and National Energy Resilience). The task force operates directly under the President, is chaired by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (Bahlil Lahadalia), and pulls together cabinet members from Investment & Downstreaming, Agrarian Affairs, Agriculture, Marine Affairs, Finance, Industry, SOEs, Environment, Public Works, Trade, plus the Attorney General and Police Chief. Its mandate covers minerals and coal, oil and gas, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy security: identifying strategic projects, mapping priority business areas, formulating standards on financing and state-revenue capture, adjusting spatial planning, and recommending administrative action against officials obstructing implementation. The task force reports to the President at least biannually and is funded out of the ESDM ministry budget.
Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Permen ESDM) No. 6 of 2024, signed by Minister Arifin Tasrif on 30 May 2024 and published in the Berita Negara Republik Indonesia, establishes the procedural framework governing how holders of Mining Business Licences (IUP) and Special Mining Business Licences (IUPK) for copper, iron, lead, and zinc production may continue to sell processed mineral products abroad during the final phase of domestic smelter construction. Licence holders that previously obtained MEMR export recommendations and whose refining facilities have reached commissioning stage but are not yet at full operational capacity may apply for time-bound extensions to sell concentrate and semi-processed ore offshore through 31 December 2024, subject to quarterly physical inspections by the Director General of Minerals and Coal. The regulation is the MEMR-side companion instrument to the same-day Permendag 10/2024 (Ministry of Trade copper-concentrate and anode-sludge export prohibition), together constituting the complete legal architecture of Indonesia's copper hilirisasi (downstream- processing) mandate. Its scope is broader than the Trade Ministry rule: it covers copper, iron, lead, and zinc whereas Permendag 10/2024 targets copper and anode-sludge only, and it operates as the conditional derogation mechanism (MEMR) to Permendag 10/2024's absolute prohibition regime (Trade Ministry).
Indonesia's Ministry of Trade promulgated Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 10 of 2024 on 30 May 2024, amending Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export. The regulation set 31 December 2024 as the final cutoff for copper-concentrate and anode-sludge exports — extending the original 1 June 2024 ban deadline by seven months — and enforced a full prohibition starting 1 January 2025. The measure is paired with ESDM Regulation No. 6 of 2024 covering the upstream mining-product side, completing the legal architecture of Indonesia's copper "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) mandate. The ban forces all domestically mined copper concentrate to be smelted and refined inside Indonesia. Two operators are directly affected: PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), majority-owned by state holding MIND ID with Freeport-McMoRan as minority partner, which operates the Grasberg mine in Papua and the new Manyar/Gresik smelter in JIIPE; and PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (subsidiary of PT Amman Mineral Internasional, IDX:AMMN), which operates the Batu Hijau mine in Sumbawa with a smelter under commissioning. A fire at Freeport's Gresik smelter in October 2024 disrupted ramp-up and forced the government to grant a discretionary export-permit extension into 2025 for PTFI, signalling that the ban — while now legally in force — is being enforced flexibly during smelter commissioning rather than as a hard stop. Permendag 10/2024 is the copper-sector equivalent of the 2020 nickel- ore export ban (ESDM 11/2019) and the planned bauxite-ore ban (effective June 2023). Together these three measures complete Indonesia's resource-nationalism package across its three highest-value mineral exports: nickel, bauxite, and copper. Combined domestic smelter capex commitments tied to the copper rule (Freeport Manyar + Amman Sumbawa) total ~USD 6 billion. Indonesia's Finance Ministry estimated forgone export revenue of ~Rp 10 trillion (~USD 640 million per year) from the copper-concentrate ban alone, which the government is treating as an acceptable downstream-policy cost. Severity is set at 4: the action is binding, durable, and reshapes a globally relevant supply chain (Indonesia is ~5% of global mined copper, rising), but discretionary export extensions during smelter commissioning soften near-term enforcement and limit the immediate market shock relative to the harder 2020 nickel rule.
Indonesia banned the export of raw bauxite ore (including washed bauxite) effective 10 June 2023, extending the "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) doctrine that previously prohibited nickel-ore exports (effective 1 January 2020) to the country's second-largest mineral export. The ban is implemented through the existing Mining Law framework (UU 3/2020 amending UU 4/2009) and operationalised via Ministry of Trade Regulation Permendag 18/2022 on Provisions for Mining-Product Exports. President Joko Widodo formally announced the bauxite-export-ban schedule on 21 December 2022, citing forecast revenue uplift from IDR 21 trillion to IDR 62 trillion (~USD 1.35bn → ~USD 3.9bn) once domestic alumina/ aluminium refining ramps.
Indonesia accelerated the implementation of its raw nickel ore export ban, originally scheduled for 2022, to take effect on 1 January 2020. Announced 30 August 2019 by Minister Ignasius Jonan via ESDM Regulation No. 11/2019, the ban prohibits the export of nickel ore with grades below 1.7% Ni (effectively all Indonesian saprolite and limonite ore that previously flowed to Chinese stainless-steel and ferronickel mills) and forces ore to be processed domestically into intermediate products (nickel pig iron, ferronickel, mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulfate). The policy is part of the long-running "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) strategy and was the trigger for the >$30B wave of Chinese-led nickel- processing investment in Sulawesi (Morowali, Weda Bay) that has since made Indonesia the dominant global nickel producer.