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What they make, where they produce, the materials that matter — then what is coming, what it would do to the business, and the moves available. Sector: industrial. Ownership re-checked 2026-10-08 — exposure claims not re-checked since fill. Company profile →
ALRO S.A. (ticker: ALR on BVB) is Romania's primary aluminium producer and one of the largest vertically integrated aluminium companies in South-Eastern Europe.
Its plant in Slatina, Romania, runs a 265,000 tpa electrolytic smelter (Hall-Héroult process), a 112,000 tpa eco-recycling facility, and a 140,000 tpa downstream processing division covering hot/cold rolling mills and extrusion. The group subsidiary ALUM S.A. (Tulcea) was originally an integrated alumina refinery (600,000 tpa capacity) but suspended refining operations in August 2022 and now acts solely as a procurement agent sourcing calcined alumina from the international market for ALRO. The upstream bauxite mine in Sierra Leone (Sierra Mineral Holdings) was sold to a Sierra Leonean investor after Alum Tulcea shareholders approved the divestment on 10 July 2023; no independently-confirmed closing date was found beyond that approval.
Verbatim from the dossier's “What they do” section — sources on the company profile.
This is where ALRO S.A. produces — approximate output shares from its dossier — not where it sells. Sales geography is not yet in our corpus for any company, so we cannot compute exposure to measures that bite on where products ship: an extraterritorial re-export rule follows the shipment and its material content, not the factory. Where such a measure touches its materials, the policy sections below flag it — but its sales-side incidence is not computable yet, and we say so rather than substitute the production map for it.
Of everything in its products, we track the critical inputs — the materials whose supply is concentrated in few countries, policy-exposed, or hard to substitute — because those are the ones a single measure can move. Each carries its role in the product, quoted from the dossier's own exposure note.
Manganese — alloying element for rolled products. The 3xxx series aluminium alloys (Al-Mn), widely used for rolled sheet and strip products such as beverage-can stock and heat exchangers, require manganese additions. Manganese ore supply is concentrated in South Africa, Australia, and Gabon; the EU has negligible primary manganese production.
Silicon metal — alloying element for processed products. ALRO's rolling and extrusion divisions produce aluminium alloys (notably 6xxx Al-Mg-Si series for extrusion profiles, and 4xxx Al-Si casting alloys). Silicon metal is the key alloying additive for these families.
Aluminium / Alumina (bauxite) — core process input. ALRO's entire production depends on calcined alumina as the electrolysis feedstock (~4 t bauxite → ~2 t alumina → ~1 t primary Al). Following the suspension of its own refinery and the divestment of its captive bauxite mine, ALRO is fully reliant on spot/contract international alumina purchases.
Scope. The non-critical remainder of the bill of materials — structural steel, polymers, glass and the like — is not tracked here because it is not supply-constrained: this section covers the constrained inputs, which is where policy risk concentrates, not a full bill of materials.
The top 5 are ranked mechanically — what the instrument does (its transmission class: an export ban is not a reporting duty), × how close to law (stage-derived likelihood band, never a probability) × how much of your tracked bill of materials it touches. Each unfolds as a chain: trigger → what it hits → the response the instrument actually calls for. A measure touching a material you produce can be an opportunity, not a threat.
GN · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches aluminium · flagged 10 Sept 2026, 28d pending
On 6 August 2026, at a ceremony at the Petit Palais of the Presidency chaired by Djiba Diakité (Minister Chief of Staff, chair of the Simandou 2040 Strategic Committee), Guinea's wholly state-owned Nimba Mining Company (NMC SA) signed its first mining convention, covering bauxite extraction at Tinguilinta and export via the Port of Kamsar — a 690. 20 km² concession in Boké Prefecture, 25-year term, refinery requirement, no tax exemptions. This operationalises NMC, which was created by the 5 August 2025 presidential decree revoking GAC/EGA's bauxite concession (already filed: 2025-08-05-guinea-presidential-decree-gac-nimba-mining-sa) — since start-up NMC has extracted ~5 Mt bauxite, exported ~4 Mt in 2026, and the Mines Ministry projects 8-10 Mt for 2026, 12 Mt 2027, 14 Mt 2028. Executive-signed and in force operationally, but multiple outlets state the convention text still requires National Transition Council ratification before Journal Officiel publication — parked on axis 2 rather than filed as enacted pending that primary text. Guinea = priority-tier chokepoint (bauxite, ~world's top exporter).
source ↗Aluminium / Alumina (bauxite) — core process input. ALRO's entire production depends on calcined alumina as the electrolysis feedstock (~4 t bauxite → ~2 t alumina → ~1 t primary Al). Following the suspension of its own refinery and the divestment of its captive bauxite mine, ALRO is fully reliant on spot/contract international alumina purchases.
The filed text doesn't state this instrument's mechanism clearly enough to classify, so we don't guess a response — the measure text above is the read.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
MW · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches aluminium · flagged 13 Aug 2026, 56d pending
President Peter Mutharika signed an executive order (dated 23 Oct 2025, effective 21 Oct 2025, announced at Sanjika Palace during a cabinet swearing-in) prohibiting the export of raw/unprocessed minerals extracted in Malawi — uranium, rare earth elements, niobium, graphite, tantalum, bauxite, coal, limestone, gemstones, heavy mineral sands, vermiculite, phosphate, rutile, gold, diamonds, copper and others — with an exemption for minerals processed/refined/value-added domestically per Malawian mining law. Announced alongside a suspension of new mining-licence issuance and a review of mining laws (2026/27 State of the Nation Address), plus a planned sovereign wealth fund. Stated rationale: local beneficiation, targeting up to USD 500m/yr once the Kasiya rutile/graphite deposit (Lilongwe) and Kangankunde rare-earth project (Balaka, Mkango Resources — Africa's prospective first new REE mine since 2017, targeting late-2026 production) are fully developed. Violators face fines/penalties under Malawian law. MW is currently the THINNEST country in the register (1 prior action) despite this breadth of minerals covered. Export-ban/beneficiation-mandate, same instrument class as Zimbabwe's SI 213/2022 raw-mineral bans and Guinea's 2026 gold-export ban already in the register.
source ↗Aluminium / Alumina (bauxite) — core process input. ALRO's entire production depends on calcined alumina as the electrolysis feedstock (~4 t bauxite → ~2 t alumina → ~1 t primary Al). Following the suspension of its own refinery and the divestment of its captive bauxite mine, ALRO is fully reliant on spot/contract international alumina purchases.
The prohibition covers the raw/unprocessed form; material processed in Malawi stays exportable under the order's own exemption — so a Malawi processing route remains open alongside the alternatives below.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
GA · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches manganese · flagged 26 Jun 2026, 104d pending
Gabon (CTRI transitional government, President Oligui Nguema) announced at Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi (May 2026) its intention to subscribe to Eramet SA's €500M capital increase, giving the Gabonese state direct equity in the French-listed parent of COMILOG (its primary manganese mining subsidiary in Moanda). Gabon already holds 29% of COMILOG; a stake in Eramet SA itself would give Gabon leverage over the global operations of the parent group (smelting, nickel, lithium, manganese across France, Norway, Senegal, and Indonesia) and a seat at the Eramet Board. Eramet AGM (May 27, 2026) approved the capital raise resolution. Capital raise planned for H2 2026. Distinct from: filed 2025-05-30-gabon-raw-manganese-export-ban-2029 (the export ban forcing value-addition); filed 2024-07-02-gabon-decret-0276-regimes-des-substances-souveraines (35% state free-carry in new mines) — this is an equity purchase in the parent company, not a free-carry in a Gabonese concession; new vector of state resource-control
source ↗Manganese — alloying element for rolled products. The 3xxx series aluminium alloys (Al-Mn), widely used for rolled sheet and strip products such as beverage-can stock and heat exchangers, require manganese additions. Manganese ore supply is concentrated in South Africa, Australia, and Gabon; the EU has negligible primary manganese production.
This changes the form of what GA exports, not whether you can buy: raw/unprocessed exports are restricted while domestically processed material stays available — that is the measure's own mechanism. Your GA-origin raw feed becomes processed-only; the route is a value-added purchase or a GA processing partner, not a supplier switch.
GA supplies 25% of world manganese mining — that is the stake if its terms tighten.
Secondary — only if you need to avoid GA entirely: manganese supply outside GA is 🇿🇦 ZA 55%, 🇬🇭 GH 14%, 🇦🇺 AU 12% (shares renormalised after removing GA).
GH · stage passed-committee → elevated likelihood · touches manganesealuminium · flagged 17 Jun 2026, 113d pending
Cabinet-cleared bill to replace the 2006 Minerals and Mining Act, Act 703: raises mining royalties from current 3–5% range to 9–12% (price-linked sliding scale), introduces a new medium-scale mining licence category bridging artisanal and large-scale operations, mandates district-level community and traditional-authority consultation before applications reach national regulators, scraps unlimited concession renewals (currently indefinitely renewable), and strengthens Ghanaian ownership provisions; National Mining Policy approved by Cabinet simultaneously; affects Newmont (Ahafo/Akyem), AngloGold Ashanti, Kinross (Chirano), Gold Fields (Tarkwa, post-Damang reversion), and Atlantic Lithium (Ewoyaa lithium project); royalty more than doubles at current gold prices — material cost increase for large-scale operators
source ↗Manganese — alloying element for rolled products. The 3xxx series aluminium alloys (Al-Mn), widely used for rolled sheet and strip products such as beverage-can stock and heat exchangers, require manganese additions. Manganese ore supply is concentrated in South Africa, Australia, and Gabon; the EU has negligible primary manganese production.
Aluminium / Alumina (bauxite) — core process input. ALRO's entire production depends on calcined alumina as the electrolysis feedstock (~4 t bauxite → ~2 t alumina → ~1 t primary Al). Following the suspension of its own refinery and the divestment of its captive bauxite mine, ALRO is fully reliant on spot/contract international alumina purchases.
The filed text doesn't state this instrument's mechanism clearly enough to classify, so we don't guess a response — the measure text above is the read.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
GN · stage in-consultation → moderate likelihood · touches aluminium · flagged 16 Jun 2026, 114d pending
Guinea = world's #2 bauxite producer (183 Mt exported in 2025, ~45% of China's bauxite imports); Mines Minister Bouna Sylla confirmed in March 2026 that export volume curbs will be applied by early April 2026 to halt a ~50% price collapse from 2025 overproduction; target cap ~150 Mt/yr (≈18% reduction from 2025 actual); enforced via licence compliance — operators exceeding feasibility-study production ceilings face volume restrictions, not an outright export ban; formal policy instrument expected June 2026 per Bloomberg/Mining. com; mechanism: production-cap enforcement rather than new legislation, but a ministerial arrêté is the likely vehicle
source ↗Aluminium / Alumina (bauxite) — core process input. ALRO's entire production depends on calcined alumina as the electrolysis feedstock (~4 t bauxite → ~2 t alumina → ~1 t primary Al). Following the suspension of its own refinery and the divestment of its captive bauxite mine, ALRO is fully reliant on spot/contract international alumina purchases.
aluminium — you sit on the supply side: a measure tightening others' supply pushes buyers toward you, so your move is positioning, not substitution (chokepoint page).
First federal statutory framework for critical and strategic minerals; establishes CMCE oversight committee, R$2B Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund (0.
Council's general approach expands the Commission's proposed downstream scope further (more products than Commission proposed); mandates annual Commission review for future scope additions; adds anti…
Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Energy Mamadou Sangafowa-Coulibaly formally launched the revision of Côte d'Ivoire's 2014 Mining Code on 13 June 2026, standing up an expert team drawn from his minis…
Madagascar's Council of Ministers approved resumption of mining-permit issuance on ~28-29 Jan 2026, ending a moratorium in place since 2010 (imposed during a political transition amid mining-title sp…
The same Finance Bill 2026/27 already tabled (Parliament-passed 23 June 2026, effective 1 July 2026) inserts a NEW export levy of "10% of the FOB value of the cargo OR TZS 200 per kilogram, whichever…
Establishes the first legally binding "safe level" benchmark for EU strategic stocks of each of the 17 strategic raw materials listed in the CRMA Annex I; benchmarks used as reference by Member State…
Revises 30 CFR Part 580 to streamline 10 provisions governing prospecting, leasing, and operations for hard minerals (manganese nodules, cobalt-rich crusts, seafloor massive sulfides) on the US Outer…
Gold mining royalties rise from 3-5% to 9-12% sliding-scale (price-indexed); mining lease maximum cut 30→15 years with renewals limited to 2×10-year additional terms; Development Agreements and Inves…
~25% reduction in Guinea's annual bauxite shipments to China (150 Mt target vs.
Extends the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism from the existing Regulation (EU) 2023/956 sectors (steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, electricity) to approximately 180 downstream produc…
On 18 March 2026 Guinea's Minister of Mines Bouna Sylla told Reuters that Guinea — the world's top bauxite exporter (~40% of global seaborne supply, 2025 exports ~183 Mt, +25% y/y) — would reduce exp…
Guinea — the world's largest bauxite exporter (~single-largest feed to China's alumina/aluminium chain) — is preparing a sector-wide measure to CAP/reduce bauxite exports to stabilise falling prices…
Mongolia's cabinet approved and submitted to the State Great Khural a draft amending ~40% of the 2006 Minerals Law: (i) cuts the maximum exploration-licence duration from 12 to 6 years while raising…
10% free-carried state equity in ALL new mining and energy projects (no-cost government stake via Epangelo Mining); consultations on 51% Namibian ownership in new mining ventures; maximum royalty rat…
On 10 July 2026 the African Development Bank Group, with the African Union Commission, the AfCFTA Secretariat and UNECA, convened African ministers of mining/energy/industry in Abidjan for the "Minis…
Gabon = ~25% world manganese reserves, world's 2nd largest manganese ore exporter (~8 Mt/year via COMILOG/Eramet); ban on raw ore exports forces domestic processing investment (silicomanganese, EMD,…
RESourceEU (COM(2025) 945, 3 Dec 2025) commits the Commission to establish a **European Critical Raw Materials Centre** in early 2026 with four functions: (a) generate **systemic market intelligence…
Second wave of CRMA Art.
On 7 September 2026 Guinea's state-owned Nimba Mining Company and Glencore signed a five-year pre-financing agreement, announced by the government and Glencore on 10 September 2026, worth over USD 30…
Supersedes 2022 bauxite reference price arrêté; establishes real-time FOB benchmark for all Guinea bauxite exports (~182 Mt/yr, world's largest supplier); estimated >$1bn/yr additional government rev…
Guinea's CNRD junta gives Societe Minière de Boke (SMB, China-linked, ~50% of Guinea's bauxite output) and Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée (CBG, joint venture: Halco Mining/Alcoa/Rio Tinto/Dadco) 10…
GN ≈ 60% global seaborne bauxite; a ~150 Mt/yr cap (vs 183 Mt 2025) tightens the alumina→aluminium chain — direct hit to EU aluminium-vertical names
VP declared no new large-scale mining agreement will be concluded without a binding value-addition commitment; Mines Minister referenced Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ghana, and Malawi precedents for raw-miner…
If adopted, creates a unified mining regulatory framework across Cameroon, CAR, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and Chad — harmonising licensing regimes, fiscal terms, transparency oblig…
Binding plurilateral trade agreement among like-minded partners (US, EU, Japan and FORGE coalition members) establishing coordinated trade measures for critical mineral supply chains — including bord…
Ministry of Mines issued operational guidelines for the Mining Sector Reforms component under Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI) FY2026-27, with total ₹5,000 crore…
On 16 November 2025 Brazil's national development bank BNDES signed a BRL 221 million (~USD 41.
4 of 55 filed an explicit in-force stage; the rest (flagged below) default from an absent stage: field, not a filed assertion. Each links to the register entry with its primary source.
For a material it buys, a restriction tightens supply and raises input cost — a headwind. For the 1 it produces, the same restriction supports pricing — a tailwind. Scores are footprint-adjusted and buyer-relative (0–100, higher = more exposed).
Its sector (industrial) has no downstream edges in our supply-chain adjacency graph — no downstream signal in the register.
For each bought material: the ex-controller producers a procurement team can actually reach, from the alternatives map (derived 2026-10-07), viability-gated — each name carries its deployment status (with the verbatim dossier phrase it rests on), a capture check against the measure being escaped, and any contracted-capacity evidence. Deployable-now names sort first; a developer with zero tonnes is shown demoted, never dressed up as a switch you can make today. Tradability is inherited from the listing layer, never guessed.
This company sits on the supply side of aluminium. Restrictions by 🇨🇳 CN push buyers toward ex-CN producers — the strategy is to be visible where those buyers look: the aluminium chokepoint page and the watchlist.
+11 more tradable names, ranked below these by the same gate.
lib/policy-transmission.ts): an export prohibition in the measure's name/text → supply restriction; a raw/unprocessed-export limit or local-processing mandate → beneficiation (form change, not unavailability); reporting/disclosure/due-diligence language → compliance obligation; tariff/trade-remedy language → import cost; subsidy/fast-track/relaxation language → support; investment-screening/M&A language → investment control. When the text carries no signal we fall back to the action-type default and label the chip inferred; when neither exists the card says so and derives no response — we never assert a class the evidence doesn't support.lib/iptm-material-country-production.ts; mining stage preferred, refining as fallback — the stage and source year are in each figure's hover text). Ex-issuer supply removes the ISSUING country and renormalises the remaining listed shares (so they sum to 100% of what's left) — alternatives to the country making the rule, never a default ex-China list. Where the issuer holds no measurable share, the card says so plainly instead of implying supply loss.lib/alternative-viability.ts): each named alternative carries a deployment status — operating / ramping / restarting / development / unknown — derived from word-boundary signal phrases in its own dossier (“operating since 1896”, “restarting the … mine”, “FID taken”), and the verbatim matched phrase is shown as the basis so the claim is auditable; a dossier with no signal stays unknown, never guessed. Any evidenced production date is quoted verbatim (“first production targeted H2 2029” → “no tonnes before 2029”) — we never synthesize one. A measure whose own text claims extraterritorial / re-export / de-minimis / foreign-direct-product / percentage-of-value scope triggers the origin-switching warning above the list: such a rule follows the material, not the seller, so a foreign-made alternative can still be captured. Same-issuer register actions targeting an alternative's country and material mark it may be captured, with the entries linked. “Capacity partly committed” lines quote the dossier verbatim — we hold no structured free-capacity numbers and never imply a utilisation figure.How MacroLens tracks this for you. The policy register files new measures daily and this page recomputes from it — the same chokepoints are monitored live on the watchlist and in the full register.