Industrial Policy & Trade Monitor· 2666 actions· ✨ 90 recent

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, effective 15 April 2026, fundamentally restructuring the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (Harga Patokan Mineral, HPM) formula that governs the minimum domestic transaction price for ore sales from IUP/IUPK miners to downstream processors. For the first time the HPM uses a multi-element comprehensive pricing formula incorporating by-product credits for cobalt, iron, and chromium alongside nickel content, and raises the Correction Factor (CF) for 1.6%-grade ore from 17% to 30% (a ~76% increase), with an inverse-linear ±1% CF adjustment per ±0.1% grade variance. The reform also shifts HPM measurement from dry-metric-ton (US$/dmt) to wet-metric-ton (US$/wmt) with explicit moisture-content deduction, covers 10 minerals including bauxite, and replaces Kepmen ESDM No. 268.K/2025. The measure redistributes economic rent from the downstream Chinese-backed HPAL/RKEF processing complex toward upstream Indonesian miners, tightening margins across Indonesia's ~50%-of-global-supply nickel-ore industry.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Permen ESDM No. 17 of 2025 on procedures for preparing, submitting and approving Work Plans and Budgets (RKAB) and reporting of mineral and coal mining activities. Signed by Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on 30 September 2025 and in force from 3 October 2025, the regulation reverses the 2023 three-year RKAB cycle back to an annual cycle, requires all IUP/IUPK holders to resubmit through the new MinerbaOne digital portal between 1 October and 15 November each year, annuls previously-issued 2026/2027 quotas, and introduces a 5-working-day auto-approval rule. Operationalised by a 2026 nickel-ore RKAB target band of 250–270 million wmt — roughly one third below the 2025 approved quota of ~379 million wmt — explicitly framed as a price-management and conservation instrument. First clear use of the RKAB framework as an explicit market-management lever rather than a domestic-licensing tool.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) issued Ministerial Decree Kepmen ESDM No. 268.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2025 on 8 August 2025, establishing Guidelines for Determining Benchmark Prices (Harga Patokan Mineral/HPM and Harga Patokan Batubara/HPB) for the sale of metal minerals and coal. It revokes the predecessor Kepmen 72/2025 and relaxes the absolute HPM/HPB price-floor mandate—exempting pre-existing contracts at below-benchmark prices—while preserving HPM/HPB as the obligatory basis for royalty and tax calculation, closing transfer-pricing avoidance. Pricing formulas cover nickel, cobalt, copper, gold, bauxite, tin, and coal grades, directly determining royalty revenues collected under the already-filed PP 19/2025 progressive royalty framework from the world's largest nickel producer (~62% of global supply).

Government Regulation No. 19 of 2025 on Types and Rates of Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) applicable to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, signed by President Prabowo Subianto on 11 Apr 2025 and effective 26 Apr 2025 (15 working days after promulgation), revokes PP 26/2022 and replaces fixed mining royalty rates with a progressive tiered system anchored to international benchmark prices (HMA for nickel, HBA for coal). Headline shifts: nickel ore from fixed 10% to 14–19% by HMA tier; ferronickel 2% → 4–6%; nickel matte 2% → 3.5–5.5%; NPI 5% → 5–7%; copper cathode 2% → 4–7%; tin 3% → 3–10%; gold 3.75–10% → 7–16%; coal up to 13.5% at HBA >USD 90 for >5,200 kcal/kg grades. The regulation is the cornerstone fiscal lever of the Prabowo nickel-downstreaming/hilirisasi 2.0 strategy alongside RKAB-quota tightening that cut national nickel quotas from 272m to 150m tonnes for 2025.

Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan Nomor 8 Tahun 2025 (Permendag 8/2025), signed 6 March 2025 and effective 10 March 2025, is the Third Amendment to Indonesia's Export-Prohibited Goods List (Permendag 22/2023), revising prohibited-export categories across seven commodity groups: forestry (wood, bamboo), agriculture (natural rubber, porang, rice, kratom), subsidised fertilisers (nitrogen-containing mineral/chemical fertilisers), mining (tin and minerals subject to general downstream-processing rules), cultural heritage, metal waste/scrap (iron and steel), and marine sedimentation products (sea sand, marine sludge). The regulation introduces a structured hilirisasi force-majeure relaxation pathway allowing companies that have completed construction of domestic mineral refining/smelting facilities — but cannot yet operate due to force majeure — to temporarily export copper concentrate with a minimum 15% Cu content, subject to Ministry of Trade approval. It is the direct predecessor to the Fourth Amendment (Permendag 6/2026, 26 March 2026).

On 24 February 2025 President Prabowo Subianto launched Badan Pengelola Investasi Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara), Indonesia's new state investment-management agency, consolidating around USD 900bn–1tn of Indonesian state-owned-enterprise assets — including Pertamina, PLN, Bank Mandiri, BRI, BNI, Telkom, MIND ID, Antam and Inalum — into a single super-holding modelled on Singapore's Temasek. Danantara was created by the Third Amendment to the BUMN Law (Law No. 1 of 2025, enacted 24 February 2025) and Government Regulation No. 10 of 2025 on its organisation and governance, with board appointments formalised by Presidential Regulation No. 30 of 2025. The agency reports directly to the President, bypassing the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises, and is mandated to deploy SOE balance-sheet capacity into Prabowo's 8% growth target via co-investment in mineral downstreaming, refinery and EV-battery build-out, food security, and semiconductor / data-centre infrastructure.

Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) passed the Fourth Amendment to Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining on 18 February 2025, and the government enacted it as Undang-Undang Nomor 2 Tahun 2025 on 19 March 2025. The amendment statutorily entrenches the long-standing hilirisasi (downstream-utilisation priority) doctrine for IUP/IUPK holders at production stage, opens preferential mining-permit allocation pathways for SMEs, cooperatives, religious-organisation business entities, and BUMN/BUMD, and ties licence issuance to approved RKAB production quotas — operationalising the Bahlil/Prabowo supply-management strategy across nickel, bauxite, copper, cobalt, manganese, tin, and zinc.

Indonesia issued Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah) No. 8 of 2025 on Foreign-Exchange Proceeds from Natural-Resource Exports (DHE SDA), amending PP No. 36/2023. President Prabowo Subianto announced the policy at Merdeka Palace on 17–18 February 2025 and the regulation takes effect on 1 March 2025. It mandates that exporters of non-oil- and-gas mining, plantation, forestry, and fisheries products with export-proceeds value of USD 250,000 or more per shipment retain 100 percent of those foreign-exchange proceeds inside Indonesia's financial system for 12 months — sharply up from the prior 30 percent for 3 months under PP 36/2023. Oil-and-gas exporters remain on the earlier 30 percent / 3-month regime. Permitted in-period uses include rupiah conversion at the holding bank, payment of state obligations in foreign currency, dividend distribution, payment for imported raw materials and capital goods unavailable domestically, and servicing of foreign-currency capital-expenditure loans. Non-compliance carries administrative sanctions including suspension of export services. The government has projected the measure could lift retained foreign- exchange proceeds by USD 80 billion in 2025 and over USD 100 billion on a full 12-month basis.

On 3 January 2025 President Prabowo Subianto signed Keputusan Presiden (Keppres) No. 1 of 2025, establishing the Satuan Tugas Percepatan Hilirisasi dan Ketahanan Energi Nasional (Task Force for the Acceleration of Downstreaming and National Energy Resilience). The task force operates directly under the President, is chaired by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (Bahlil Lahadalia), and pulls together cabinet members from Investment & Downstreaming, Agrarian Affairs, Agriculture, Marine Affairs, Finance, Industry, SOEs, Environment, Public Works, Trade, plus the Attorney General and Police Chief. Its mandate covers minerals and coal, oil and gas, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy security: identifying strategic projects, mapping priority business areas, formulating standards on financing and state-revenue capture, adjusting spatial planning, and recommending administrative action against officials obstructing implementation. The task force reports to the President at least biannually and is funded out of the ESDM ministry budget.

Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Permen ESDM) No. 6 of 2024, signed by Minister Arifin Tasrif on 30 May 2024 and published in the Berita Negara Republik Indonesia, establishes the procedural framework governing how holders of Mining Business Licences (IUP) and Special Mining Business Licences (IUPK) for copper, iron, lead, and zinc production may continue to sell processed mineral products abroad during the final phase of domestic smelter construction. Licence holders that previously obtained MEMR export recommendations and whose refining facilities have reached commissioning stage but are not yet at full operational capacity may apply for time-bound extensions to sell concentrate and semi-processed ore offshore through 31 December 2024, subject to quarterly physical inspections by the Director General of Minerals and Coal. The regulation is the MEMR-side companion instrument to the same-day Permendag 10/2024 (Ministry of Trade copper-concentrate and anode-sludge export prohibition), together constituting the complete legal architecture of Indonesia's copper hilirisasi (downstream- processing) mandate. Its scope is broader than the Trade Ministry rule: it covers copper, iron, lead, and zinc whereas Permendag 10/2024 targets copper and anode-sludge only, and it operates as the conditional derogation mechanism (MEMR) to Permendag 10/2024's absolute prohibition regime (Trade Ministry).

Indonesia's Ministry of Trade promulgated Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 10 of 2024 on 30 May 2024, amending Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export. The regulation set 31 December 2024 as the final cutoff for copper-concentrate and anode-sludge exports — extending the original 1 June 2024 ban deadline by seven months — and enforced a full prohibition starting 1 January 2025. The measure is paired with ESDM Regulation No. 6 of 2024 covering the upstream mining-product side, completing the legal architecture of Indonesia's copper "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) mandate. The ban forces all domestically mined copper concentrate to be smelted and refined inside Indonesia. Two operators are directly affected: PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), majority-owned by state holding MIND ID with Freeport-McMoRan as minority partner, which operates the Grasberg mine in Papua and the new Manyar/Gresik smelter in JIIPE; and PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (subsidiary of PT Amman Mineral Internasional, IDX:AMMN), which operates the Batu Hijau mine in Sumbawa with a smelter under commissioning. A fire at Freeport's Gresik smelter in October 2024 disrupted ramp-up and forced the government to grant a discretionary export-permit extension into 2025 for PTFI, signalling that the ban — while now legally in force — is being enforced flexibly during smelter commissioning rather than as a hard stop. Permendag 10/2024 is the copper-sector equivalent of the 2020 nickel- ore export ban (ESDM 11/2019) and the planned bauxite-ore ban (effective June 2023). Together these three measures complete Indonesia's resource-nationalism package across its three highest-value mineral exports: nickel, bauxite, and copper. Combined domestic smelter capex commitments tied to the copper rule (Freeport Manyar + Amman Sumbawa) total ~USD 6 billion. Indonesia's Finance Ministry estimated forgone export revenue of ~Rp 10 trillion (~USD 640 million per year) from the copper-concentrate ban alone, which the government is treating as an acceptable downstream-policy cost. Severity is set at 4: the action is binding, durable, and reshapes a globally relevant supply chain (Indonesia is ~5% of global mined copper, rising), but discretionary export extensions during smelter commissioning soften near-term enforcement and limit the immediate market shock relative to the harder 2020 nickel rule.