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Structured register of government actions in the geoeconomic space — export controls, tariffs, sanctions, FDI screening, subsidies, industrial-policy laws — cross-referenced into the country, minerals, and ETF surface. Charter: docs/IPTM_CHARTER.md.
Severity 1-5 is the qualitative impact rating (1=minor, 5=structural). The bilateral-trade-grounded quant scorer is the next IPTM milestone. RBI (Register Breadth Index) is a complementary structural-breadth indicator from scripts/py/iptm/breadth.py; divergence between RBI and severity is itself informative (high-sev / low-RBI = strategic chokepoint; low-sev / high-RBI = broad but shallow). Every action has at least one primary source URL. Verify-or-don't-file. See also themes, timeline, graph, sankey, map, country exposure, sector exposure, material exposure (+ graph), weekly briefs, portfolio scan, escalation monitor, trans-shipment hubs. Internal triage tools (RSS-poller candidate feed, source-feed health) live under /admin/candidates + /admin/sources. Subscribe via Atom feed (accepts ?country=CN, ?material=lithium, ?issuer=BIS, ?type=export_control, ?etf=SOXX, ?company=NVDA, ?minSeverity=4, ?year=2026, ?q=…) or pull /api/iptm/actions.
On 18 September 2026 the European Commission adopted Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2026/2133, imposing a provisional safeguard measure on imports of certain grain-oriented flat-rolled products of silicon-electrical steel (GOES) and steel laminations and cores (SLCs) — CN codes 7225 11 00, 7226 11 00 and 8504 90 13 — following a global safeguard investigation opened 27 March 2026. GOES is the core input for power-transformer and grid-equipment cores; the Commission's own figures show China supplied 53% of 2025 EU imports, Japan 20%, Türkiye 13% and Korea/UAE a combined 4%. Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Kenya and Ukraine are excluded from the provisional measure. The regulation does not disclose the tariff-rate-quota volume or out-of-quota duty rate in the published notice; the Commission press page frames the measure as "tariff-rate quotas coupled with price thresholds."
The US Department of Commerce issued a preliminary affirmative determination (case A-570-228) that tin mill products from China are being sold in the US at less than fair value, finding a China-wide dumping margin of 136.52% based on adverse facts available (no Chinese producer/exporter responded to the investigation), adjusted to a 130.17% cash deposit rate after offsetting the parallel countervailing-duty determination. Commerce also made a preliminary affirmative finding of critical circumstances, extending provisional measures and cash-deposit collection retroactively. The investigation was petitioned by United States Steel Corporation and the United Steelworkers union; final determinations are scheduled for around 1 December 2026.
The US Department of Commerce issued a preliminary affirmative countervailing duty determination (case C-570-229) finding that producers/exporters of tin mill products from China received countervailable subsidies at a rate of 66.61% ad valorem, applied both to the individually-examined respondents (Shougang Holding Trade (Hong Kong) Ltd. and Shougang Jingtang United Iron & Steel Co. Ltd.) and to the all-others rate, based on facts available with adverse inferences after non-cooperation. Commerce also made a preliminary affirmative finding of critical circumstances, and directed CBP to suspend liquidation and collect cash deposits on entries from the date of publication. The final CVD determination is aligned to issue alongside the companion antidumping determination, currently scheduled no later than 2026-11-30.
On 9 September 2026 President Trump signed five proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 responding to Canada's 8 September 2026 retaliatory tariffs on roughly $20bn of US exports (steel, dairy, agricultural equipment). The proclamations impose outright import bans on certain Canadian alcoholic-beverage and dairy products that had been subject to the 50% Section 338 duties imposed 22 August 2026 (following Canada's continued discrimination against US alcohol and dairy commerce), and separately exclude certain Canadian motor-vehicle-sector products from importation for the same reason. The proclamations also modify the product scope of the July 20, 2026 Section 338 tariff actions, removing items such as rock salt and cement and adding others, including all-terrain vehicles and additional dairy products. The import bans take effect 29 September 2026; the product-list modifications take effect 15 September 2026. The duties/bans apply regardless of USMCA origin and stack on top of Section 232 tariffs.
Canada's Department of Finance published an updated list of over 700 US-origin products subject to counter-tariffs effective 2026-09-08, covering CA$27.6 billion of US imports across steel, aluminium, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp/paper and electronics. Rates (15%, 25% or 50% depending on product) are matched dollar-for-dollar to the corresponding US Section 338/232 tariffs on the same goods, explicitly countering the United States' 22 August 2026 decision to impose a 50% tariff on CA$27.6 billion of Canadian goods. Steel and aluminium flat-rolled products carry the top 50% counter-rate.
Japan's Ministry of Finance, acting on a provisional affirmative determination from the Customs Tariff Council following a METI/MOF joint dumping investigation opened in August 2025, imposed a provisional anti-dumping duty on hot-dip galvanized steel strips and sheets originating in South Korea and China (Hong Kong and Macau excluded). The measure took effect August 8, 2026 under Cabinet Order No. 254 of 2026, and runs through December 7, 2026 pending a final determination. The product is used in guard rails, building/housing materials, fencing, and appliance parts such as refrigerators.
Japan's Ministry of Finance and METI imposed a provisional anti-dumping duty of 3.6% to 42.1% (varying by exporter) on nickel-added cold-rolled stainless steel coil, sheet and strip (alloy steel with >=10.5% chromium and >0.6% nickel by weight) originating in or exported from China and Taiwan. The Cabinet Order was made public 8 July 2026 and the provisional duty applies 9 July 2026 to 8 November 2026, pending the investigation MOF/METI opened 22 July 2025.
Türkiye's Ministry of Trade published Communiqué No. 2026/17 in Resmî Gazete No. 33282 on 16 June 2026, imposing definitive anti-dumping duties on imports of cold-rolled flat steel (excluding non-annealed), galvanized flat steel, and pre-painted flat steel originating in the People's Republic of China and South Korea, covering products under GTIP codes 7209, 7210, 7211, 7212, 7225, and 7226. The investigation — initiated under Communiqué No. 2024/41 of 25 December 2024 — found that dumped imports from both countries were causing material injury to domestic producers. Duty rates for Chinese exporters range from 22.37% (Angang Steel) to 32.40% (all-others CIF); South Korean rates range from 10.48% (POSCO) to 27.00% (all-others). The measure runs for five years from the date of publication, under Law No. 3577 on Prevention of Unfair Competition in Imports.
On 4 June 2026 USTR published a formal Notice of Determination in the Federal Register (doc 2026-11158, docket USTR-2025-0043) concluding that Brazil's acts, policies, and practices in six areas — digital trade and electronic payment services, unfair preferential tariffs, anti-corruption enforcement, IP protection, ethanol market access, and illegal deforestation — are unreasonable and burden US commerce. Simultaneously, USTR proposed a 25% ad valorem tariff on all Brazilian-origin goods, subject to ~1,600 HTS subheading exclusions including approximately 430 civil-aircraft lines. A public hearing is scheduled for 6 July 2026 and USTR faces a statutory deadline of 15 July 2026 to finalise any responsive action; the tariff has not yet taken effect.
South Africa's Cabinet approved the Industrial Development Strategy 2026 (IDS 2026) at its regular meeting of 3 June 2026 (following a Special Cabinet meeting on 13 May 2026). DTIC published the strategy document on 8 June 2026. IDS 2026 is South Africa's first Industrial Development Strategy to formally integrate critical mineral supply-chain security into the national industrial policy framework. Key provisions: (1) PERMIT-TO-PROCESSING LINKAGE — mining permit allocations in new blocks are conditioned on binding domestic processing commitments for priority commodities; (2) PRIORITY BENEFICIATION SECTORS — chrome, platinum-group metals (PGMs), cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements designated as mandatory value-addition targets; (3) INDUSTRIAL SECURITY CLASSIFICATION — strategic mineral sectors listed alongside steel, automotive, and aerospace as active industrial-policy industries where government takes a direct coordination role; (4) CROSS-DEPARTMENT COORDINATION — DTIC coordinates with DMPR on permit conditions, embedding beneficiation mandates into the licensing regime. The IDS 2026 is the operative implementation instrument for the permit-conditioned beneficiation mandate signalled in the May 2025 Critical Minerals and Metals Strategy; the two documents are functionally complementary but legally distinct — the strategy sets direction, IDS sets implementation obligations.
On 20 May 2026, the Council of the EU and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement on two Commission regulations implementing the tariff elements of the EU-US Joint Statement of 21 August 2025. The main regulation (COM(2025)0471) eliminates remaining EU customs duties on US industrial goods and grants preferential market access for US seafood and non-sensitive agricultural products. The second regulation (COM(2025)0472) extends the suspension of EU duties on US lobster imports (including processed lobster) retroactively from 1 August 2025. Both regulations sunset on 31 December 2029 and include a Commission safeguard mechanism to suspend concessions if the US fails to meet its Joint Statement commitments.
Presidential decree signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and published in the evening edition of the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 23 April 2026, in force 24 April 2026. The decree amends the Tariff of the Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importación y de Exportación (LIGIE/TIGIE) and the Decreto que establece diversos Programas de Promoción Sectorial (PROSEC), imposing MFN import duties at 5%, 10%, 15%, 25%, 30% or 35% ad valorem on 185 tariff fractions covering chemical products, cosmetics, paper and cardboard, textiles, steel, graphic arts, aluminum manufactures, auto parts, electrical material, bicycles, musical instruments, furniture, wind turbines, and trailers. Goods originating in countries with which Mexico has a free-trade agreement remain eligible for preferential treatment, so practical incidence falls on China and other non-FTA suppliers (Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, UAE, South Africa). Paired PROSEC modifications add tariff fractions to Article 5 sections I, II.b and XIX (electrical, electronic, automotive and auto-parts industries) at exempt (EX) rates.
On 21 April 2026, the Canadian International Trade Tribunal issued a final injury finding in Inquiry NQ-2025-005, determining that the dumping of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) originating in or exported from Mexico, the Philippines, Türkiye, and South Korea has caused material injury to the domestic Canadian steel industry. Anti- dumping duties are payable on imports released by CBSA on or after 21 April 2026 and remain in effect for five years. The US investigation was terminated separately.
On 16 April 2026 the Korea Trade Commission (KTC), the trade-remedy authority operating under the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE), issued a preliminary affirmative determination in its anti-dumping investigation of Chinese-origin zinc and zinc-alloy coated cold-rolled steel products (thickness <4.75mm; HS 7210/7212 and certain 7225/7226 codes), and recommended provisional anti-dumping duties of 22.34% (Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union), 26.28% (Shougang Jingtang United Iron & Steel), 33.67% (Winstone Development Ltd), and 25.75% (other Chinese suppliers). The duties remain in force pending a final determination expected around September 2026, with the Ministry of Economy and Finance to operationalise the rates by public notice. The investigation was petition-driven by Korean steelmakers (Dongkuk CM, KG Steel, SeAH CM) in November 2025, responding to a surge in Chinese galvanized cold-rolled imports following the US Section 232 50% steel tariff escalation that redirected Chinese supply to Korea and SE Asia.
The European Commission approved Bulgaria's Electricity Price Relief Scheme (State Aid Case SA.120414) under the Clean Industrial Deal State Aid Framework (CISAF), authorising €334 million for energy-intensive industries over a three-year corridor from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2028. Aid is delivered via a reduction on beneficiaries' monthly electricity bills through their suppliers, subject to a minimum price floor of €50/MWh. This is the first EU member-state scheme approved under the CISAF framework, establishing the precedential template for subsequent CISAF approvals across the EU industrial base.
On 13 April 2026 the Council of the EU and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement, in trilogue with the Commission, on the new EU steel safeguard regulation that will replace the existing WTO-safeguard-based measure (Regulation (EU) 2019/159, last tightened by Implementing Regulation 2025/612) expiring on 30 June 2026. The agreement adopts the core architecture of the Commission's October 2025 proposal (procedure 2025/0726(COD)): an overall duty-free tariff-rate quota of approximately 18.3 million tonnes per year — a roughly 47% reduction versus the 2024 safeguard quotas — covering 30 product categories, with the out-of-quota customs duty raised from 25% to 50%. The deal also introduces a mandatory "country of melt and pour" declaratory requirement on steel imports and obliges the Commission to assess, within two years, whether the country of melt-and-pour should become the basis for country-specific TRQ allocations (closing transhipment loopholes that have allowed Chinese-melted steel to enter via third-country processors). The co-legislators added a reinforced and time-bound review mechanism: a first Commission review of product scope within six months of entry into force, with subsequent biennial scope reviews thereafter. Statutorily, this is a NEW instrument — a regulation adopted under the ordinary legislative procedure, not an implementing act under the WTO Agreement on Safeguards / Regulation (EU) 2015/478 — so it is filed as a new action with a `responds_to` link to the predecessor regime. Formal adoption by Council and EP plenary is expected in May 2026 ahead of the 1 July 2026 application date.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, effective 15 April 2026, fundamentally restructuring the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (Harga Patokan Mineral, HPM) formula that governs the minimum domestic transaction price for ore sales from IUP/IUPK miners to downstream processors. For the first time the HPM uses a multi-element comprehensive pricing formula incorporating by-product credits for cobalt, iron, and chromium alongside nickel content, and raises the Correction Factor (CF) for 1.6%-grade ore from 17% to 30% (a ~76% increase), with an inverse-linear ±1% CF adjustment per ±0.1% grade variance. The reform also shifts HPM measurement from dry-metric-ton (US$/dmt) to wet-metric-ton (US$/wmt) with explicit moisture-content deduction, covers 10 minerals including bauxite, and replaces Kepmen ESDM No. 268.K/2025. The measure redistributes economic rent from the downstream Chinese-backed HPAL/RKEF processing complex toward upstream Indonesian miners, tightening margins across Indonesia's ~50%-of-global-supply nickel-ore industry.
Egypt's Ministry of Investment and Foreign Trade issued a ministerial decree on 31 March 2026 imposing definitive three-year safeguard duties on imports of flat-rolled steel products — covering hot-rolled coil (HRC), cold-rolled coil (CRC), hot-dip galvanized/galvannealed (HDG/GI), and pre-painted steel (PPGI) — effective 1 April 2026 and running through approximately 13 September 2028. The measure converts the 200-day provisional safeguard (Ministerial Decision No. 400/2025, effective 14 September 2025) into a definitive instrument and simultaneously extends coverage to CRC, HDG and PPGI products that had been subject to a separate parallel investigation launched September 2025; Egypt concurrently terminated the anti-dumping probe on CRC/HDG/PPGI from China and Turkey without imposing AD duties, making the safeguard the sole operative instrument. Duties are erga-omnes (all WTO Members, subject to Article 9.1 developing-country de minimis) and follow a three-tier declining-duty structure: CRC at 13.7%/min USD 83/t in Year 1, falling to 12.5%/min USD 76/t in Year 3; HDG at 14%/min USD 93/t declining to 13%; PPGI at 14.5% declining to 13.5%.
The Government of Tanzania signed a Development Agreement with Panda Hill Tanzania Limited (a subsidiary of US-based Denham Capital / Tremont Investments) on 24 March 2026 in Mbeya to develop the Panda Hill niobium and ferroniobium project in the Mbeya/Songwe region. Under the agreement, the Government holds a 16% non-dilutable free carried interest in the project special-purpose vehicle, with Panda Hill Tanzania Limited committing to an initial capital investment of USD 442 million to construct Tanzania's first niobium mine and ferroniobium smelting plant — the first ferroniobium processing facility in Africa. At full production, the project is expected to supply approximately 4–5% of global niobium demand, generating USD 686 million in lifetime government revenues (royalties, taxes, and 16% equity dividends), positioning Tanzania among the world's top-four niobium producers alongside Brazil's CBMM, Canada's Niobec, and China Molybdenum.
South Africa's ITAC, acting on an application by ArcelorMittal South Africa and Columbus Stainless Steel, imposed definitive five-year anti-dumping duties on certain flat-rolled products of iron and steel (width ≥600 mm, HS 7208 and 7225 subheadings) from China (company-specific rates up to 47.92%), Japan (up to 57.23%) and Taiwan (24.20%), effective 19 March 2026 via SARS amendment to Schedule No. 2 of the Customs and Excise Act. The Commission found dumping from all three origins and material injury to the SACU regional industry (full findings in ITAC Report 767). Duties are layered on top of the existing 10% ordinary customs duty and 13% steel safeguard, substantially raising the landed cost of flat-rolled steel from Asia.
South Africa's International Trade Administration Commission (ITAC) recommended, and SARS implemented on 19 March 2026, definitive five-year anti-dumping duties on U, I and H sections of iron or non-alloy steel (structural steel, HS 7216.31, 7216.32, 7216.33 and 7216.40) imported from China (74.98%) and Thailand (20.32%). The investigation, initiated on an application by ArcelorMittal Rails and Structures (AMRAS), found dumped imports — totalling 28,800 tonnes in 2023/24, with China supplying ~65% — were causing material injury to the SACU domestic industry (full findings in ITAC Report 759). The definitive duties layer on top of an existing 10% ordinary customs duty and a 13% SACU-wide steel safeguard duty, bringing the effective total import burden on Chinese structural steel to approximately 98% above the base tariff.
The UK's steel safeguard measure (25% out-of-quota duty) expired 30 June 2026 and was replaced from 1 July 2026 by a new tariff-rate-quota trade measure, announced by the Department for Business and Trade on 19 March 2026. The new measure cuts overall duty-free quota volumes by 51% versus the expired safeguard and raises the out-of-quota tariff to 50% by value, applied across 20 steel product categories. Ukraine-origin steel is exempt; two non-alloy wire commodity codes drop to 0% duty from 1 October 2026.
The UK Finance Act 2026, which received Royal Assent on 18 March 2026, establishes the primary statutory framework for the United Kingdom Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (UK CBAM), granting HM Revenue & Customs the assessment, collection, and enforcement powers needed to apply a carbon-content levy on imports of aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen, and iron & steel from 1 January 2027. Two tranches of draft secondary legislation (the CBAM Regulations 2026 covering administration, rate calculation/carbon-price relief, emissions and verification, and transitory provisions) were published for technical consultation on 10 February 2026 (closing 24 March 2026) and again in Spring 2026 (closing 21 May 2026). The mechanism imposes a UK ETS-linked benchmark price on the embedded carbon of in-scope imports, with a credit for verified third-country carbon prices already paid, and — unlike the EU CBAM — has no transitional reporting phase and a narrower initial sectoral scope (no electricity).
Presidential Decreto 0264, signed on 16 March 2026 by President Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego with Minister of Commerce Diana Marcela Morales Rojas and Minister of Finance Germán Ávila Plazas, sets a 35% MFN import duty on 14 steel and metal-mechanical subpartidas (bars, profiles, tubes, wire products, barbed wire) covering HS chapters 72-73 imported from countries with which Colombia has no free-trade agreement — primarily China, Russia, Turkey, and India. The measure is valid for one year from its entry into force (15 days after Diario Oficial publication on 16 March 2026), after which the Comité de Asuntos Aduaneros, Arancelario y de Comercio Exterior must review its impact. It partially amends Decreto 1881 de 2021 and operationalises the Política Nacional de Reindustrialización (CONPES 4129), the Petro administration's flagship programme to reduce Colombia's hydrocarbon dependence by building new domestic manufacturing capacity.
On 11 March 2026 USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer initiated parallel Section 301 investigations into the acts, policies, and practices of 16 economies — China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India — relating to structural excess capacity and overproduction in manufacturing sectors. The Federal Register notice (FR doc 2026-05214; dockets USTR-2026-0067 and USTR-2026-0068) was published on 17 March 2026. Covered sectors include aluminum, automobiles, batteries, cement, chemicals, electronics, energy goods, glass, machine tools, machinery, paper, plastics, processed food and beverages, robotics, satellites, semiconductors, ships, solar modules, steel, and transportation equipment. Written comments were due by 15 April 2026; USTR held the public hearing beginning 5 May 2026. This is the most sweeping multi-economy Section 301 initiative since the 2018 China investigation and is structurally distinct from the China-only 2024-05-14 §301 tariff hikes and the 2025-07-15 Brazil §301 investigation.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed it has officially cut the 2026 nickel-ore Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) production ceiling to 260–270 million wet metric tonnes (wmt), down from the ~379 million wmt approved for 2025 — a reduction of roughly one-third. Actual 2026 production is targeted at approximately 209–210 million tonnes. Minister Bahlil Lahadalia framed the cut as a supply-demand balancing measure to stabilise nickel prices and conserve reserves; the government first signalled the production control on 23 December 2025, after which world nickel prices rose from roughly US$14,800/t under oversupply to above US$17,000–18,800/t. This is the operative 2026 application of the annual RKAB cycle established by Permen ESDM 17/2025.
The European Commission cleared, under EU State aid rules, a rescue loan of up to EUR 390 million from the Italian government to Acciaierie d'Italia (AdI, formerly ILVA), operator of Italy's largest integrated steelworks at Taranto. AdI has been under insolvency administration since February 2024 and faces near-term liquidity shortfalls to cover operating costs — supplier payments and wages — while a tender process to sell the business to a new operator continues. The loan is capped at the projected liquidity shortfall, priced at a market interest rate, and limited to a maximum six-month duration, consistent with EU rescue-aid conditions.
The European Commission approved EUR 321.8 million (approx. USD 343.4 million) in additional German state aid (case SA.104276) for Salzgitter Flachstahl GmbH's SALCOS ("Salzgitter Low CO2 Steelmaking") Stage I decarbonisation project. The increment lifted the German federal and Lower Saxony state governments' combined funding commitment for Stage I to EUR 1.322 billion, split roughly two-thirds federal (BMWK) and one-third Land Niedersachsen, after the German government publicly confirmed the top-up on 24 February 2026. Stage I comprises a 100MW electrolyser, a direct-reduction-iron plant, and an electric-arc furnace intended to replace blast-furnace/basic- oxygen-furnace production and cut CO2 emissions from the affected process by up to 95%, targeting start-up from 2027.
The Canada Border Services Agency initiated an anti-dumping investigation (Case OCTG6 2026 IN) on 2 February 2026 into oil and gas well casing originating in or exported from Austria, following a complaint by Tenaris Canada. On 4 May 2026 the CBSA issued a preliminary determination finding a dumping margin of 22.6% of export price for Voestalpine Tubulars GmbH & Co KG, the sole named Austrian exporter, but declined to impose provisional duties, assessing that they were "not necessary to prevent injury." The case covers oil and gas well casing under 28 HS tariff classification codes (7304.29.00.12-.29 and 7306.29.00.12-.29). The Canadian International Trade Tribunal's parallel injury inquiry (NQ-2026-002) is due to conclude by 1 September 2026; only a positive injury finding triggers definitive duties.
On 1 February 2026 India's Ministry of Finance tabled the Finance Bill 2026 alongside Customs Notifications 01/2026 to 03/2026-Customs, restructuring the customs tariff schedule across hundreds of HS lines. Duty rates rise on a range of consumer and finished-goods lines (e.g. umbrellas: 20% to "20% or ₹60/piece, whichever is higher"; potassium hydroxide: 0% to 7.5%; INVAR steel: 5% to 7.5%; radio-trunking parts: 5% to 15%; video-game parts: 5% to 20%) while falling on nuclear and renewable-energy inputs (fuel elements and control/absorber rods for nuclear reactors: 7.5% to 0%; sodium antimonate for solar glass: 7.5% to 0%) and on personal-use dutiable imports under heading 9804 (20% to 10%, effective 1 April 2026). Roughly 80 exemptions previously granted by standalone notification are being written into the First Schedule of the Customs Tariff Act at unchanged rates, effective 1 May 2026 — converting administratively-reversible exemptions into statutory ones.
Brazil's Foreign Trade Chamber Executive Committee (GECEX/CAMEX) imposed a five-year definitive antidumping duty on imports of pre-painted flat-rolled carbon steel products (coated on one or both faces with paint or varnish, supplied in coils, rolls or sheets; commonly called "aço pré-pintado") originating in China and India, classified under NCM codes 7210.70.10, 7210.70.20 (width ≥600 mm) and 7212.40.10, 7212.40.21, 7212.40.29 (width <600 mm). The measure was adopted at the 233rd extraordinary GECEX meeting on 30 January 2026 chaired by MDIC Minister Geraldo Alckmin and entered into force upon publication in the Diário Oficial da União (Edição 22, Seção 1, Pág. 1) on 2 February 2026. This is the first definitive AD imposition of 2026 in Brazil's accelerating defensive posture against Chinese and Indian steel overcapacity in downstream processed categories.
On 27 January 2026 the European Union and India announced the conclusion of negotiations on a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement at the EU-India summit hosted at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, attended by PM Narendra Modi, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa. The deal — described by both leaders as the "mother of all deals" — covers ~25% of world GDP and ~2 billion people. The EU eliminates duties on 91% of tariff lines (covering 99.3% of bilateral trade by value); India eliminates duties on 86% of lines (covering 96.6% by value). Headline cuts include Indian tariffs on EU wines (150% → 75% at entry into force, falling to 20%), olive oil (45% → 0% over five years) and processed agri-food (up to 50% eliminated); EU tariffs are reduced/eliminated on Indian textiles, leather/footwear, gems and jewelry, marine products, tea, coffee, spices and certain agricultural and steel products. The agreement still requires Council adoption, European Parliament consent and approval by India's Union Council of Ministers; entry into force is expected in early 2027. Companion instruments concluded at the same summit include an EU-India Security and Defence Partnership and a Mobility and Migration Agreement.
On 19 January 2026 the Government of Vietnam issued Decree No. 29/2026/ND-CP, establishing the regulatory architecture for Vietnam's first domestic carbon trading exchange. The decree (6 chapters, 35 articles) governs registration, domestic coding, ownership transfer, custody, trading and settlement of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission quotas and eligible carbon credits. The Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) operates the trading platform and the Vietnam Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation (VSDC) handles registration, custody and settlement, with a pilot phase running through 31 December 2028 (no exchange-services fee) ahead of full commercialisation from 1 January 2029.
The US Department of Commerce issued a countervailing duty (CVD) order on steel concrete reinforcing bar (rebar) from Algeria, effective 6 July 2026, imposing a 72.94% subsidy-offset rate on Tosyali Iron Steel Industry Algeria SPA and, by default, all other Algerian producers — a rate based on facts available with adverse inferences after the Algerian government and/or exporters did not fully cooperate with Commerce's subsidy questionnaires. Because USTR determined Algeria is not a "Subsidies Agreement country," the US ITC was not required to make an injury determination, so the CVD order took effect on Commerce's final subsidy determination alone. This is a separate legal track from the parallel antidumping case on the same product (see responds_to) — the AD investigation used a 127.32% margin, the CVD order uses 72.94%, and both stack as cumulative duties on Algerian rebar. Parallel countervailing-duty investigations on Egypt and Vietnam remained at the preliminary stage as of Commerce's 13 January 2026 determinations, with net subsidy rates set at 29.51% (Egypt) and 1.08% (Vietnam); these are provisional cash-deposit rates pending each country's final CVD determination.
Cumhurbaşkanı Kararı No. 10790 (Resmi Gazete 31 December 2025, issue 33124 3rd reprint), in force 1 January 2026, restructures Türkiye's annual import-tariff architecture across 4,344 product lines from non-EU origins. The decree (i) introduces or expands additional customs duty (Ek Mali Yükümlülük / İlave Gümrük Vergisi) of 5%–48% on non-EU imports of iron and non-alloy steel, copper, aluminium, and base-metal household goods; (ii) introduces forward-looking import-surveillance measures across 172 products under 36 notifications, with reference-price floors that cap effective duty relief on under-valued shipments; (iii) updates duties on 324 Customs Tariff Statistical Positions across 21 chapters (219 HS lines raised by 2.4–15 percentage points; 8 lines under HS 7225/7228/8528/8529 raised by 3–14 points; 2 lines reduced by 6 points); (iv) opens duty-free tariff quotas for 35 industrial-product categories — including 27 battery / lithium-cell HS codes through 1 February 2027, 8m m² of plastic-treated textiles through 31 December 2026, and 40,725 tons of organic chemicals and aluminium sheets (16 February–31 December 2026); and (v) imposes a permit regime (6-month validity) on used and refurbished goods. EU and EU-Customs-Union origins remain exempt under A.TR preferential rules; the structural asymmetry vs non-EU partners is the core mechanism. Stated rationale (Ministry of Trade): support domestic production, prevent unfair competition, increase employment, reduce the current-account deficit.
The Ministry of Finance, Department of Revenue (Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs) issued Notification No. 02/2025-Customs (SG) dated 30 December 2025, imposing a definitive three-year safeguard duty on imports of "Non-Alloy and Alloy Steel Flat Products" classified under Customs Tariff headings 7208, 7209, 7210, 7211, 7212, 7225 and 7226 (hot-rolled coils/sheets/plates, hot-rolled plate-mill plates, cold-rolled coils/sheets, metallic coated sheets including galvanneal and aluminium-zinc coated, and colour-coated coils/sheets). Duty rates are graduated: 12% ad valorem for 21 April 2025 – 20 April 2026, 11.5% for 21 April 2026 – 20 April 2027, and 11% for 21 April 2027 – 20 April 2028. The notification implements the final findings of the Director General (Trade Remedies) (DGTR notification 22/01/2024-DGTR dated 16 August 2025) which concluded that imports of subject goods rose from 2.293 mt in FY 2021-22 to 6.612 mt during the period of investigation, causing serious injury and threat of serious injury to the domestic industry. The definitive measure supersedes the provisional 200-day safeguard duty imposed at 12% ad valorem from 21 April 2025 by Notification 01/2025-Customs (SG); no safeguard duty applies for the interim period between expiry of the provisional duty (early November 2025) and the day preceding Gazette publication of the definitive notification. Imports from developing-country WTO members are exempt unless the share of any individual developing country exceeds 3% of total imports of the subject goods, or the collective share of developing countries exceeding 3% individually exceeds 9% — the China and Vietnam carve-outs from this exemption preserve full applicability of the duty to the dominant cheap-import sources.
Decree reforming various tariff fractions of the General Import and Export Duties Tariff (TIGIE), published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 29 December 2025 and in force 1 January 2026. The reform, approved by Congress as a statutory amendment to the LIGIE (Chamber of Deputies and Senate, Dec 2025) and signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum, raises MFN import duties to between 5% and 50% ad valorem on 1,463 tariff lines covering more than 20 chapters of the TIGIE, spanning automotive, auto parts, textiles, apparel, footwear, steel, aluminum, plastics, paper, leather, furniture, glass, toys, appliances and cosmetics. The increases apply only to goods originating in countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico — principally China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei, the UAE, and South Africa. The decree formalises at statutory level the September 2024 Sheinbaum executive order placing a 50% duty on finished passenger vehicles from non-FTA states and is framed by the Secretaría de Economía and SHCP as the operational tariff instrument of Plan México (2025-01-21).
On 26 December 2025, Japan's Cabinet approved the FY2026 (Reiwa 8) national budget, which allocates JPY 122.0 billion (~USD 800m) to the "Next-Generation Innovative Reactor Technology Development and Industrial Base Strengthening Support Project" (次世代革新炉の技術開発・産業基盤強化支援事業), up from JPY 88.9 billion in the FY2025 initial budget plus a JPY 6.0 billion FY2025 supplementary allocation. The programme, administered by ANRE under METI's GX (Green Transformation) Promotion budget, funds technology development and supply-chain build-out for Japan's "innovative light-water reactors" (revised BWR/PWR designs with enhanced passive safety) and small modular reactors under the government's GX2040 Vision. The budget takes effect with Japan's fiscal year on 1 April 2026, subject to ordinary Diet passage in early 2026.
On 16 December 2025, Public Services and Procurement Canada implemented the Buy Canadian Procurement Policy Framework, bringing into force (a) the Policy on Prioritizing Canadian Materials in Federal Procurement, which mandates use of Canadian steel, wood products and aluminum in federal defence and construction contracts valued at CAD 25 million or more that contain at least CAD 250,000 of those materials where Canadian supply exists, and (b) the Policy on Prioritizing Canadian Suppliers and Canadian Content in Strategic Federal Procurements, which applies a bid-price discount margin favouring Canadian suppliers in procurements tied to Canada's economic, industrial and innovation priorities. Complementary amendments to the Canadian International Trade Tribunal Procurement Inquiry Regulations, effective 15 December 2025, remove CITT jurisdiction to review procurement measures that restrict participation to, or favour, Canadian suppliers, goods, services, materials or subcontractors. The framework applies immediately to procurements of CAD 25 million and above and is scheduled to expand to contracts of CAD 5 million and above by spring 2026. Budget 2025 allocates roughly CAD 186 million over five years to implement the framework, including CAD 79.9 million for a new Small and Medium Business Procurement Program.
On 9 December 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and General Administration of Customs jointly issued Announcement No. 79 of 2025, reinstating an export-licence management system for ~300 HS-coded steel products effective 1 January 2026. Exporters must obtain a per-contract licence supported by a manufacturer-issued product quality inspection certificate; licences are issued by MOFCOM (for centrally-administered SOEs) and provincial / sub-provincial commerce departments. The regime is the first reinstatement of Chinese steel-export licensing in 16 years (since 2009) and applies the export-licensing instrument — previously used for critical minerals and dual-use goods — to a non-critical bulk commodity for the first time.
On 26 November 2025 Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a package of measures to protect Canada's steel and softwood lumber industries, effective 26 December 2025. For steel, Canada tightened the tariff-rate quota (TRQ) available to countries without a Canada free trade agreement from 50% to 20% of 2024 import levels, and cut the TRQ for FTA partners outside CUSMA (i.e. not the US/Mexico) from 100% to 75% of 2024 levels; imports above quota face a 50% surtax. A new 25% tariff on the full value of listed steel-derivative products (doors, windows, fasteners, structural components and related goods) applies to all countries, covering an estimated CAD 10 billion+ of derivative imports. For softwood lumber, Canada added CAD 500 million to the BDC Softwood Lumber Guarantee Program (bringing it to CAD 1.2 billion) and earmarked a further CAD 500 million under the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan facility for lumber-sector liquidity support.
On 25 November 2025 the US EPA announced USD 3 billion in new Drinking Water State Revolving Fund (DWSRF) assistance under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), plus reallocation of a further USD 1.1 billion in previously awarded but unspent state funds, bringing total redirected funding to USD 4.1 billion for state lead service line replacement (LSLR) programmes. Global Trade Alert logs the intervention as a public-procurement-localisation measure because DWSRF/IIJA capital- grant assistance carries standing Build America, Buy America Act (BABA) domestic-content requirements for the iron, steel, and manufactured construction products (pipe, fittings) used in funded replacement work. States that have not obligated or spent funds awarded since FY2023 must submit an implementation plan before accessing new funding.
On 20 November 2025 the US EPA opened the 9th round of Water Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act (WIFIA) lending — USD 6.5 billion in WIFIA financing plus USD 550 million under the State WIFIA (SWIFIA) program, USD 7.05 billion in total newly available capacity — and simultaneously approved five new WIFIA loans totaling USD 711 million across Fort Worth TX (USD 347m), Pflugerville TX (USD 176m), Joliet IL (USD 87m), Ashland OR (USD 73m) and Wilton Manors FL (USD 28m). Global Trade Alert logs each individual loan as a public-procurement-localisation intervention because WIFIA capital assistance carries a standing American Iron and Steel (AIS) domestic-content requirement for iron, steel and manufactured products used in EPA-financed water infrastructure — a structural condition of the WIFIA statute rather than a provision unique to this announcement.
On 20 November 2025 the Federal Transit Administration announced USD 2,027,948,082 in combined FY2025 Grants for Buses and Bus Facilities and FY2025/2026 Low or No Emission (Low-No) Program awards, covering 165 projects across 45 states and the District of Columbia: USD 397.7 million for 62 Bus Facilities projects and USD 1.63 billion for 103 Low-No projects, funding roughly 2,400 replacement buses. Global Trade Alert logs the round as a public-procurement-localisation intervention because both programs carry standing Build America, Buy America Act (BABA) domestic-content requirements — buses and manufactured components funded by the awards must be produced with US-made iron, steel, and manufactured products and final-assembled domestically. FTA formalised the full project list via Federal Register notice on 15 January 2026.
On 11 November 2025 President Mamadi Doumbouya officially inaugurated start of operations at the Simandou Integrated Project — Africa's largest greenfield mine-and-infrastructure asset — at a ceremony attended by the presidents of Rwanda and Gabon, China's Vice-Premier, and PMs from Côte d'Ivoire and Sierra Leone. The project comprises Blocks 1–2 (WCS: Winning International / China Hongqiao / Baowu) and Blocks 3–4 (SimFer: Rio Tinto 53% / Chinalco-led JV 47%), connected by 622 km of multi-use trans-Guinean railway to barge and transhipment port facilities at Forécariah, operated by Compagnie du TransGuinéen (CTG). Combined design capacity is up to 120 Mt/yr of high-grade (~65% Fe) iron ore, the largest single addition to seaborne supply since Vale's S11D ramp in 2016, structurally reshaping Australia-Brazil price competition and China's iron-ore import geography.
The Romanian Government adopted HG 855/2025 on 9 October 2025, approving the National Hydrogen Strategy 2025-2030 with a 2050 perspective and its binding Implementation Action Plan. The strategy sets a production target of 152.9 kt/year of renewable hydrogen by 2030 (interim: 48.7 kt/yr by 2027) and 2,130 MW of electrolyser capacity, with EUR 115 million allocated for a first ~60 MW tranche via PNRR/RRF, Modernisation Fund, and Just Transition Fund pathways. It designates five "hydrogen valleys" co-locating producers with hard-to-abate industrial off-takers (steel, chemicals, fertilisers, heavy transport) and anchors Romania's transposition of EU RED III and alignment with the EU Hydrogen Bank auction architecture.
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Permen ESDM No. 17 of 2025 on procedures for preparing, submitting and approving Work Plans and Budgets (RKAB) and reporting of mineral and coal mining activities. Signed by Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on 30 September 2025 and in force from 3 October 2025, the regulation reverses the 2023 three-year RKAB cycle back to an annual cycle, requires all IUP/IUPK holders to resubmit through the new MinerbaOne digital portal between 1 October and 15 November each year, annuls previously-issued 2026/2027 quotas, and introduces a 5-working-day auto-approval rule. Operationalised by a 2026 nickel-ore RKAB target band of 250–270 million wmt — roughly one third below the 2025 approved quota of ~379 million wmt — explicitly framed as a price-management and conservation instrument. First clear use of the RKAB framework as an explicit market-management lever rather than a domestic-licensing tool.
On 2025-09-29 the Government of Canada and the Province of Ontario announced binding term sheets to provide Algoma Steel Inc. with C$500 million in liquidity support: C$400 million (including an C$80 million secured tranche) in loan facilities from the federal government via the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan (LETL) facility, administered by the Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation, and C$100 million (including a C$20 million secured tranche) from the Province of Ontario. The package is explicitly framed as protection for Canadian steel jobs against the impact of US Section 232 steel tariffs, intended to help Algoma sustain operations and continue its transition toward electric-arc-furnace steelmaking while reducing US-market dependence. The financing transaction closed on 2025-11-17.
On 26 September 2025, Japan's Minister of Finance Katsunobu Kato announced the establishment of the Japan Strategic Investment Facility, a JBIC-administered financing vehicle operationalising the USD 550bn investment pledge from the July 2025 US-Japan tariff and investment agreement. The facility launched 1 October 2025 and runs through March 2029, supporting the overseas expansion of Japanese companies across nine economic-security sectors: semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, steel, shipbuilding, critical minerals, aviation, energy, automobiles, and AI/quantum technology. Funding draws on three sources — dollar-denominated JBIC bonds, yen-denominated Japanese government loans to JBIC, and a "supplemental" transfer from Japan's USD 1.324tn foreign-currency reserves — with private-sector loans and NEXI-backed loan guarantees supplementing JBIC's own financing.
Japan's state-owned Development Bank of Japan (DBJ) announced on 2025-09-18 that it executed "hybrid finance" — a subordinated-debt instrument treated as partly equity by rating agencies — in support of Nippon Steel Corporation's acquisition of United States Steel Corporation. DBJ's participation formed part of a JPY 500 billion (~USD 3.4bn) committed subordinated term-loan facility, syndicated alongside Japan's three megabanks (MUFG, SMFG, Mizuho) and Sumitomo Mitsui Trust, that Nippon Steel closed the same day to repay short-term bridge loans used to fund the consideration for its USD 14.9bn acquisition of US Steel. DBJ extended the financing under its "Specific Investment Operations" (特定投資業務) program, which is reserved for deals it deems to strengthen the international competitiveness of Japanese industry.