Industrial Policy & Trade Monitor· 2663 actions· ✨ 89 recent

On June 2, 2026, USTR published final actionability findings in 60 parallel Section 301(b) investigations — the largest simultaneous Section 301 action in US history — determining that all 60 economies maintain unreasonable acts, policies, or practices by failing to impose or effectively enforce a prohibition on imports produced with forced labor. USTR proposed two additional duty rates: 10% on the 14 economies with partial forced-labor regimes (Canada, Ecuador, EU, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan, UK) and 12.5% on the remaining 46 economies. Tariff rates remain proposed pending a July 7, 2026 public hearing and subsequent finalization; the actionability determination is final.

Indonesia's Komite Anti Dumping Indonesia (KADI) issued an affirmative preliminary dumping-and-injury determination against hot-rolled coil (HRC, uncoated/unplated, width ≥600mm, HS 7208 subheadings) originating from Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd (WISCO) of the People's Republic of China. The resulting provisional anti-dumping duty (Bea Masuk Antidumping Sementara / BMADS) of 17.50% ad valorem was imposed via Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 32 Tahun 2026, effective 27 May 2026 through 22 November 2026. Under Indonesia's PP No. 34/2011 statutory framework, KADI must complete its investigation within 12 months; a definitive duty, revision, or termination will follow.

On 20 May 2026 President Prabowo Subianto signed a Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah tentang Tata Kelola Ekspor Komoditas Sumber Daya Alam) establishing PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI) — a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Danantara sovereign-investment holding company — as the sole legal exporter ("eksportir tunggal") for palm oil (CPO and derivatives), thermal and metallurgical coal, and ferroalloys (ferronickel, nickel pig iron, ferromanganese, ferrochrome), representing approximately USD 65 billion in annual Indonesian export proceeds. A phased implementation architecture applies: a transition period from 1 June through 31 August 2026 during which private exporters continue direct contractual relationships but must route all export documentation through DSI as the mandatory single-window reporting layer; followed by full implementation from 1 September 2026 under which DSI assumes the entire export chain including contract negotiation, buyer relationship, shipment booking, and payment receipt. The stated rationale is to strengthen export-flow oversight, eliminate under-invoicing and transfer-pricing-driven capital flight, and improve DHE-SDA foreign-exchange retention compliance.

Via Department Administrative Order (DAO) No. 26-03, series of 2026, signed on 20 May 2026, the Philippine DTI removed China and Indonesia from the list of developing countries exempt from the definitive general safeguard measure on ordinary Portland cement (Type 1) and blended cement, imposing a safeguard duty of PHP 349 per metric tonne (≈ US$6.09/t; PHP 14 per 40 kg bag) on imports from those two origins for three years. The removal follows the Philippine Tariff Commission's monitoring, which found China's share of total cement imports rising from 11% in 2025 to 23% in Q1 2026 and Indonesia's from 6% to 8% over the same period — both exceeding the 3% de minimis threshold that conferred exemption under the parent DAO 25-15. The underlying definitive safeguard, covering all non-exempt origins, first took effect in February 2026 following a serious-injury determination by the Tariff Commission.

Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) issued Circular nº 33 on 29 April 2026, confirming a preliminary affirmative determination of dumping and material injury to the Brazilian domestic industry in imports of hot-rolled stainless steel flat products (thickness 2–50.8 mm, coils and sheets, NCM 7219 and 7220 headings) from China, India and Indonesia. Preliminary dumping margins are 50.1% (China), 25.3% (Indonesia) and 17.9% (India). Despite the affirmative finding, DECOM exercised discretion not to impose provisional anti-dumping duties at this stage, citing case complexity, the three-origin scope and the volume of submitted information; the final determination is scheduled for 25 November 2026.

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 12 of 2026, signed by Trade Minister Budi Santoso and effective on its date of promulgation (29 April 2026), is the fifth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on Export Policy and Regulation. It introduces a new discretionary authority — distinct from administrative sanctions — for the Director General of Foreign Trade to suspend issuance of, freeze, and revoke Business Licensing in the Export Sector (Perizinan Berusaha di Bidang Ekspor), and to suspend verification / technical-tracing services. Crucially, it institutionalises cross-ministerial initiating authority: other ministries and agencies may formally propose suspension / freezing / revocation, with proposals reviewed in coordination meetings convened under the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs or the Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs. Decisions are issued via INATRADE / SINSW with automated notification to exporters. The stated rationale is protecting national interests, public welfare, government-programme implementation, and presidential directives — operationalised as safeguarding domestic supply of "certain goods" (palm oil, rice, sugar, mineral, and fertiliser categories cited in policy framing).

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) issued final findings dated 28 April 2026 in the anti-dumping investigation concerning imports of Low Ash Metallurgical Coke (ash content ≤ 18%, HS 27040010, 27040020, 27040030, 27040090) originating in or exported from Australia, China PR, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan and Russia, recommending a downward revision of the provisional anti-dumping duties previously imposed by Notification No. 41/2025-Customs (ADD) of 31 December 2025. The final findings are recommendatory; a definitive implementing customs notification from CBIC is expected before the provisional measures expire around June 2026. Significant reductions in duty rates are recommended for Indonesian and Japanese origin imports; the investigation covers six coke-exporting countries competing with domestic producers led by Tata Steel, JSW Steel, SAIL, Jindal Steel (JSPL) and AMNS India.

Presidential decree signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and published in the evening edition of the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 23 April 2026, in force 24 April 2026. The decree amends the Tariff of the Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importación y de Exportación (LIGIE/TIGIE) and the Decreto que establece diversos Programas de Promoción Sectorial (PROSEC), imposing MFN import duties at 5%, 10%, 15%, 25%, 30% or 35% ad valorem on 185 tariff fractions covering chemical products, cosmetics, paper and cardboard, textiles, steel, graphic arts, aluminum manufactures, auto parts, electrical material, bicycles, musical instruments, furniture, wind turbines, and trailers. Goods originating in countries with which Mexico has a free-trade agreement remain eligible for preferential treatment, so practical incidence falls on China and other non-FTA suppliers (Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, UAE, South Africa). Paired PROSEC modifications add tariff fractions to Article 5 sections I, II.b and XIX (electrical, electronic, automotive and auto-parts industries) at exempt (EX) rates.

The US Department of Commerce published preliminary affirmative antidumping duty (AD) determinations on April 23, 2026 (Federal Register publication April 28, 2026), finding that crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from India, Indonesia, and Laos are being sold in the US at less than fair value. Preliminary dumping margins are 123.04% for India, 35.17% for Indonesia, and 22.46% for Laos, with Commerce ordering US Customs and Border Protection to begin collecting AD cash deposits at those rates (107.77% adjusted cash-deposit rate for India; 22.06% for Laos). This runs parallel to, and stacks on top of, the CVD case on the same merchandise and countries (see responds_to), meaning combined AD+CVD cash-deposit burdens on subject imports now exceed 100% for all three origins. Final AD determinations are due July 13, 2026 (India, Indonesia) and September 9, 2026 (Laos).

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, effective 15 April 2026, fundamentally restructuring the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (Harga Patokan Mineral, HPM) formula that governs the minimum domestic transaction price for ore sales from IUP/IUPK miners to downstream processors. For the first time the HPM uses a multi-element comprehensive pricing formula incorporating by-product credits for cobalt, iron, and chromium alongside nickel content, and raises the Correction Factor (CF) for 1.6%-grade ore from 17% to 30% (a ~76% increase), with an inverse-linear ±1% CF adjustment per ±0.1% grade variance. The reform also shifts HPM measurement from dry-metric-ton (US$/dmt) to wet-metric-ton (US$/wmt) with explicit moisture-content deduction, covers 10 minerals including bauxite, and replaces Kepmen ESDM No. 268.K/2025. The measure redistributes economic rent from the downstream Chinese-backed HPAL/RKEF processing complex toward upstream Indonesian miners, tightening margins across Indonesia's ~50%-of-global-supply nickel-ore industry.

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 5 of 2026, signed on 26 March 2026 and effective 1 April 2026, is the fourth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on Export Policy and Regulation. It introduces three substantively significant changes: (i) restricts issuance of Export Approval (Persetujuan Ekspor / PE) for ilmenite and rutile concentrate to holders of IUP/IUPK Operasi Produksi mining permits — eliminating the prior Izin Usaha Industri (IUI) industrial pathway — extending Indonesia's hilirisasi vertical-integration doctrine to titanium feedstock; (ii) removes the Eksportir Terdaftar (ET) registered- exporter requirement for industrial tin exports, simplifying the export chain to PE + Laporan Surveyor (LS) only; (iii) mandates electronic and automatic issuance of PE where the integrated INATRADE/SINSW system documentation is complete, digitising the export-licensing chain. Additional changes tighten kratom ET validity to a three-year cap and reassign marine-species transport- document authority from the Ministry of Forestry to the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries.

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 6 of 2026 (Permendag 6/2026), signed 26 March 2026 and effective 1 April 2026, amends the appendix of Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export, making four substantive changes to Indonesia's prohibited-export list: (i) nitrogen-containing mineral and chemical fertilizers, including urea in all forms, are added to the prohibited-export list as a food-security instrument; (ii) rice is removed from the prohibited-export list, partially reversing a long-standing prohibition; (iii) rough wood, sawn wood, and wood carpentry and building products are added as value-added-export-requirement items, extending Indonesia's hilirisasi downstream-processing doctrine from minerals into the forestry-products sector; and (iv) rattan weaving materials remain prohibited for export. Together with the simultaneously enacted Permendag 5/2026 (fourth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on export-licensing procedures), this forms Indonesia's most consequential 2026 export-regulation package.

On 11 March 2026 USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer initiated parallel Section 301 investigations into the acts, policies, and practices of 16 economies — China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India — relating to structural excess capacity and overproduction in manufacturing sectors. The Federal Register notice (FR doc 2026-05214; dockets USTR-2026-0067 and USTR-2026-0068) was published on 17 March 2026. Covered sectors include aluminum, automobiles, batteries, cement, chemicals, electronics, energy goods, glass, machine tools, machinery, paper, plastics, processed food and beverages, robotics, satellites, semiconductors, ships, solar modules, steel, and transportation equipment. Written comments were due by 15 April 2026; USTR held the public hearing beginning 5 May 2026. This is the most sweeping multi-economy Section 301 initiative since the 2018 China investigation and is structurally distinct from the China-only 2024-05-14 §301 tariff hikes and the 2025-07-15 Brazil §301 investigation.

The US Department of Commerce published preliminary affirmative countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on February 26, 2026, finding that producers and exporters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from India, Indonesia, and Laos received countervailable government subsidies. Preliminary subsidy rates are 125.87% for India; 85.99%–143.30% by individual Indonesian producer (104.38% all-others rate); and a uniform 80.67% for Laos. Commerce ordered US Customs and Border Protection to begin collecting cash deposits at these rates on subject imports pending a parallel antidumping investigation and final determinations later in 2026. The case originated from a petition filed in August 2025 by US crystalline silicon PV manufacturers.

President Trump signed a Presidential Proclamation on 20 February 2026 invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. § 2132) to impose a temporary 10% ad-valorem import surcharge on articles imported into the United States, effective 12:01 a.m. EST on 24 February 2026. The proclamation was issued within hours of the US Supreme Court's 20 February 2026 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to set tariffs and vacated the IEEPA-based reciprocal-tariff regime previously in effect. The Section 122 surcharge is statutorily limited to 150 days (terminates 24 July 2026 absent Congressional extension) and the statute caps any such surcharge at 15% ad valorem. Goods qualifying as USMCA originating from Canada or Mexico are exempt; CAFTA-DR textile/apparel articles meeting specified rules of origin are exempt; and a substantial product-exception list excludes critical minerals, energy products, certain pharmaceuticals, electronics, vehicles, aerospace products, specified agricultural goods, and goods already subject to Section 232 duties (the Section 122 duty does not stack on Section 232).

On 19 February 2026 Presidents Trump and Prabowo finalised the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between the United States and Indonesia. The deal locks the US reciprocal tariff on Indonesian imports at 19% (down from the 32% threatened in April 2025), with 0% on a defined list of products and a textile/apparel quota benchmarked to US-cotton/MMF inputs. Indonesia commits to remove export restrictions on all industrial commodities — explicitly including critical minerals across the full value chain — and to grant US investors national treatment in mineral exploration, mining, processing and export. Indonesia also agrees to eliminate tariff barriers on >99% of US-origin goods, while a Freeport-McMoRan MOU extends the Grasberg copper-mine licence (~USD 10bn/yr revenue, world's 2nd largest copper mine) and a parallel commercial package totalling ~USD 33bn (energy USD 15bn, aerospace incl. Boeing USD 13.5bn, agriculture USD 4.5bn) is signed alongside.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed it has officially cut the 2026 nickel-ore Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) production ceiling to 260–270 million wet metric tonnes (wmt), down from the ~379 million wmt approved for 2025 — a reduction of roughly one-third. Actual 2026 production is targeted at approximately 209–210 million tonnes. Minister Bahlil Lahadalia framed the cut as a supply-demand balancing measure to stabilise nickel prices and conserve reserves; the government first signalled the production control on 23 December 2025, after which world nickel prices rose from roughly US$14,800/t under oversupply to above US$17,000–18,800/t. This is the operative 2026 application of the annual RKAB cycle established by Permen ESDM 17/2025.

At the Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026 forum in Jakarta on 13 February 2026, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the government is "studying the termination of tin exports" as the next phase of Indonesia's hilirisasi (downstream processing) programme, explicitly framing it as the successor to the 2020 nickel ore export ban and the 2023 bauxite export ban. Indonesia is the world's largest refined tin exporter, with Bangka Belitung province accounting for approximately 81.7% of provincial export value (~USD 1.6bn in 2025); no formal decree (Permendag or Kepmen ESDM) has been issued as of June 2026, placing this action in a pre-legislative signalling stage.

The US Department of Commerce issued affirmative preliminary countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam, finding countervailable government subsidies in all three countries. Preliminary subsidy rates are 81.34% for China, 2.40% to 128.66% for Indonesia (case-by-case, non-cooperating producer PT Mustika Buana Sejahtera at the top of the range), and 4.37% to 26.75% for Vietnam. Commerce published the determinations in the Federal Register on 22 January 2026, triggering CBP collection of cash deposits at these rates pending final determinations. A parallel antidumping (AD) investigation on the same product and countries runs on a separate track (see responds_to) with preliminary AD margins of 187.27% (China), up to 84.94% (Indonesia), and 196.14% (Vietnam) announced 25 February 2026 — AD and CVD duties stack cumulatively.

Indonesia's Ministry of Finance imposed a definitive import safeguard duty (Bea Masuk Tindakan Pengamanan / BMTP) on imported cotton woven fabric, covering 16 eight-digit HS codes (5208/5209/5210/5211/5212 cotton-fabric lines), effective 10 January 2026 for three years. The duty follows a KPPI safeguard investigation that found an import surge causing serious injury to Indonesia's domestic weaving industry. The duty is a specific (absolute-rupiah) levy that declines over the three-year term, and 122 countries are exempted subject to certificate-of-origin verification.