Industrial Policy & Trade Monitor· 2662 actions· ✨ 89 recent

On 11–12 December 2025, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) convened a special meeting with major phosphate fertiliser producers, traders, and industry associations, instructing them to suspend phosphate fertiliser exports in principle until August 2026 to concentrate supply on the domestic market and stabilise prices ahead of the 2026 spring planting season. The measure covers diammonium phosphate (DAP), monoammonium phosphate (MAP), triple superphosphate (TSP), and compound NPK fertilisers. China supplied roughly 40% of global phosphate fertiliser exports before the ban; Chinese export volumes in Q1 2025 fell to ~111,000 t versus a three-year average of 785,000 t for the same period.

Türkiye's Grand National Assembly adopted Law No. 7552 (İklim Kanunu) on 2 July 2025, published in the Resmî Gazete on 9 July 2025 (Issue 32951) and entering into force immediately. The law is Türkiye's first comprehensive climate statute, establishing the legal framework for a national Emissions Trading System (ETS) — pilot phase from 2026, full implementation from 2028 — and creating the Carbon Market Board (Karbon Piyasası Kurulu) to govern allowance allocation and market operations. The ETS is designed for EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) compatibility, materially affecting Türkiye's steel, cement, aluminium, and fertilizer export sectors, for which the EU is the primary market.

Regulation (EU) 2025/1227, published 20 June 2025, imposes an additional 50% ad valorem customs duty on top of the standard Common Customs Tariff rate on roughly 101 tariff lines of agricultural products originating in or exported from Russia or Belarus, closing the remaining gap in the agri-tariff regime first opened in 2024. Fertilisers from the two countries face a separate, gradually escalating specific duty — starting around EUR 40-45 per tonne on top of the existing 6.5% ad valorem rate for the 2025-26 period, rising in annual steps to EUR 430 per tonne by 2028. The measure enters into force 1 July 2025 and is explicitly framed by the Council and Parliament as a further squeeze on Russian export revenue used to fund the war against Ukraine, extending the July 2024 agri-tariff regulation (EU) 2024/1392 to cover the products it left out.

On 2 August 2024, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sanctioned Lei nº 14.948/2024 (with partial veto, Mensagem nº 741) at a ceremony in the Pecém Industrial-Port Complex in Ceará, following Senate and Chamber approval of PL 2308/2023; the law was published in the Diário Oficial da União on 5 August 2024. The statute establishes Brazil's first comprehensive legal framework for low-carbon hydrogen: it (i) creates the National Low-Carbon Hydrogen Policy (PNH2BC) under the National Energy Policy umbrella, (ii) sets a statutory definition of "low-carbon hydrogen" as fuel/industrial input with lifecycle GHG intensity ≤ 7 kg CO₂e/kg H₂, (iii) institutes the Brazilian Hydrogen Certification System (SBCH2) for origin and emissions accreditation, (iv) creates the Special Incentive Regime for Low-Carbon Hydrogen Production (Rehidro), suspending PIS/Pasep and Cofins for five years on capital-goods, raw-materials and services purchases by qualified producers, and (v) authorises the Programa de Desenvolvimento do Hidrogênio de Baixa Emissão de Carbono (PHBC) — a tax-credit envelope capped at BRL 18.3 bn between 2028 and 2032 (subsequently regulated by Lei nº 14.990/2024 sanctioned 30 September 2024). ANP gains regulatory authority over hydrogen transportation, storage and import/export licensing, while the law amends Leis nºs 9.427/1996 (ANEEL) and 9.478/1997 (Petroleum Law) to integrate hydrogen into the energy-policy and electricity-regulation framework. Industry reporting at sanction cited >USD 30 bn in announced project pipeline, concentrated in Northeast renewable-rich states (Ceará, Bahia, Pernambuco, Rio Grande do Norte) leveraging Pecém, Suape and Açu as hydrogen-derivative export terminals.

Poland's Minister of Development and Technology, Waldemar Buda, established a temporary compulsory administrator (tymczasowy zarządca przymusowy) over the Grupa Azoty S.A. shares held by sanctioned Russian oligarch Vyacheslav Kantor through three holding vehicles — Norica Holding S.à r.l. (Luxembourg), Opansa Enterprises Limited and Rainbee Holdings Limited (both Cyprus) — which together controlled 19.82% of the state-linked fertiliser and chemicals group, worth over PLN 0.5bn. The ministry cited Kantor's inclusion on Poland's sanctions list and the protection of the country's economic and energy security, and stated its intent to find a buyer for the stake and compensate Kantor. The Provincial Administrative Court in Warsaw (WSA) later overturned the decision establishing the administration; the ministry did not appeal, and the ruling became final around 30 July 2024, ending the administrator's mandate — though the underlying EU/Polish sanctions on Kantor continue to freeze his ability to exercise any rights attached to the shares.

Regulation (EU) 2023/956 of the European Parliament and of the Council, published in OJ L 130 on 16 May 2023 and entering into force on 17 May 2023, establishes the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) — the Union's primary instrument for preventing carbon leakage at the external border. The regulation applies an equivalent carbon price to embedded greenhouse gas emissions in imports of six sector groups (iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen) from non-EU/EEA/Swiss counterparts, complementing the EU Emissions Trading System's domestic coverage. A transitional reporting-only phase operated from 1 October 2023 through 31 December 2025; the definitive certificate-purchase-and-surrender regime entered full application from 1 January 2026.

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entered its definitive phase on 1 January 2026 following a transitional reporting period that began October 2023. Under Regulation (EU) 2023/956, importers of goods in six carbon-intensive sectors (iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen) must now purchase CBAM certificates corresponding to embedded carbon emissions. The Q1 2026 certificate price was set at EUR 75.36 per tonne CO2, calculated from EU ETS auction prices. In 2026, the adjustment factor is 2.5%, rising annually to 100% by 2034.

On 4 January 2023 the Union Cabinet of India, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved the National Green Hydrogen Mission with an initial financial outlay of ₹19,744 crore (≈USD 2.3 bn) covering FY2023-24 through FY2029-30. The bulk of the outlay — ₹17,490 crore — funds the Strategic Interventions for Green Hydrogen Transition (SIGHT) programme for electrolyser-manufacturing incentives and green-hydrogen production incentives. ₹1,466 crore is allocated to pilot projects (steel, mobility, shipping, ports, decentralised hydrogen), ₹400 crore to R&D, and ₹388 crore to other Mission components (skilling, regulatory framework, certification). The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) is the lead implementing agency. Headline targets by 2030: at least 5 MMT/year of domestic green-hydrogen production capacity, with ≈125 GW of associated additional renewable- energy capacity, mobilisation of >₹8 lakh crore (≈USD 100 bn) of total investment, creation of >600,000 jobs, and avoidance of ≈50 MMT/year of CO₂ emissions. The Mission is positioned as the supply-chain underpinning for India's hard-to-abate decarbonisation (refining, fertilisers, steel) and as the basis for a green-hydrogen export industry leveraging India's low-cost solar resource. MNRE notified the SIGHT scheme guidelines on 28 June 2023, splitting the programme into Component I (Electrolyser Manufacturing Incentive, ₹4,440 crore) and Component II (Green Hydrogen Production Incentive, ₹13,050 crore for Mode-1; subsequent Mode-2A and Mode-2B tranches added for sector-specific tenders). Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI) is the implementing agency for both components and runs the competitive reverse-auction tenders.

The Department of Pharmaceuticals notified the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme for Promotion of Domestic Manufacturing of Critical Key Starting Materials (KSMs), Drug Intermediates (DIs) and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) on 21 July 2020 via Gazette Notification, with an outlay of Rs 6,940 crore (~USD 920m) over FY 2020-21 to FY 2027-28. The scheme covers 41 identified critical bulk-drug products across four target segments — fermentation-based (Key Fermentation; Niche Fermentation) and chemical synthesis-based (Key Chemical Synthesis; Niche Chemical Synthesis) — paying 20% incentive on incremental sales for fermentation-based products (years 1-4) tapering to 15% (year 5) and 5% (year 6), and a flat 20% over 5 years for chemically-synthesised products. The stated objective is to reduce India's ~70% bulk-drug import dependence on China by establishing greenfield domestic manufacturing capacity with at least 90% domestic value addition for fermentation products and 70% for chemical-synthesis products.