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What they make, where they produce, the materials that matter — then what is coming, what it would do to the business, and the moves available. Sector: chemicals. Company profile →
Akzo Nobel N.V. (AKZA.
AS) is a Dutch paints-and-coatings manufacturer, the world's largest by revenue, operating two segments: Decorative Paints (Dulux, Flexa, Coral) and Performance Coatings (Sikkens automotive refinishes, International marine coatings, Interpon powder coatings, Aerospace coatings). The company sells in more than 150 countries from roughly 65 manufacturing sites. It is not a commodity chemicals producer: its core business is formulating pigment dispersions, binder systems, and protective topcoats — not manufacturing the underlying inorganic pigments or polymer resins from scratch.
Verbatim from the dossier's “What they do” section — sources on the company profile.
This is where Akzo Nobel N.V. produces — approximate output shares from its dossier — not where it sells. Sales geography is not yet in our corpus for any company, so we cannot compute exposure to measures that bite on where products ship: an extraterritorial re-export rule follows the shipment and its material content, not the factory. Where such a measure touches its materials, the policy sections below flag it — but its sales-side incidence is not computable yet, and we say so rather than substitute the production map for it.
Of everything in its products, we track the critical inputs — the materials whose supply is concentrated in few countries, policy-exposed, or hard to substitute — because those are the ones a single measure can move. Each carries its role in the product, quoted from the dossier's own exposure note.
Manganese — direct input as secondary drier in alkyd coatings. Manganese compounds (manganese octoate/naphthenate) are co-driers used alongside cobalt in oxidatively drying alkyd systems; they are a standard formulation component in gloss paints, primers, and oil-based protective coatings. Manganese is an EU CRM with supply dominated by South Africa and Gabon.
Cobalt — direct input as driers in alkyd paints and coatings. Cobalt naphthenate and cobalt octoate are the standard drying catalysts in solvent-borne alkyd paint systems (decorative gloss paints, industrial alkyds). AkzoNobel Decorative Paints has funded independently-published research into cobalt-free alkyd drying catalysts (Mn- and Fe-based alternatives, thiol-ene chemistry) — see Sources — whi…
Titanium (as titanium dioxide/TiO2 pigment) — primary dependency. TiO2 is the dominant white pigment in architectural and industrial paints; AkzoNobel explicitly names it as a key raw material obtained from selected key suppliers. EU production capacity for pigment-grade TiO2 is structurally short, and China accounts for a growing share of global supply.
Chromium — direct input in aerospace and heavy protective coatings. Sikkens Aerospace (a leading global cabin and exterior aircraft coating) and AkzoNobel's marine and oil-and-gas protective coatings use chromate-based and chromium-pigment formulations (zinc chromate primers, chromium oxide pigments) for corrosion resistance. Hexavalent chromium use is being phased under REACH, but trivalent chromium and…
The dossier also records the materials it investigated and rejected — the list above is narrowed deliberately, not cherry-picked. Its own words:
Scope. The non-critical remainder of the bill of materials — structural steel, polymers, glass and the like — is not tracked here because it is not supply-constrained: this section covers the constrained inputs, which is where policy risk concentrates, not a full bill of materials.
The top 5 are ranked mechanically — what the instrument does (its transmission class: an export ban is not a reporting duty), × how close to law (stage-derived likelihood band, never a probability) × how much of your tracked bill of materials it touches. Each unfolds as a chain: trigger → what it hits → the response the instrument actually calls for. A measure touching a material you produce can be an opportunity, not a threat.
CD · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches cobalt · flagged 11 Aug 2026, 57d pending
On 29 June 2026 DRC's Vice-Prime Minister for the National Economy (Daniel Mukoko Samba), Minister of Mines (Louis Watum Kabamba) and Minister of Foreign Trade (Julien Paluku Kahongya) jointly signed an arrêté interministériel regulating the commercialisation, export and nomenclature of marketable mining products, which for the first time BANS the export of unprocessed copper and cobalt concentrates outright — replacing the entire framework adopted 4 August 2023. Mining-rights holders, processing entities and buying counters (comptoirs) may seek a ministerial derogation to export less-elaborated products for up to one year, assessed against national mining policy and the technical/economic constraints of each mineral. A new tax regime for economically significant mining byproducts is introduced with a 3-month transition period. This is broader and more foundational than the existing filed/queued DRC cobalt-specific instruments — it is a national concentrate EXPORT BAN (not a quota or hydroxide-specific measure) covering BOTH copper and cobalt, issued under joint Economy/Mines/Trade authority rather than ARECOMS sectoral rulemaking. DRC = priority-tier chokepoint (cobalt, copper, tantalum). Severity 4 expected (national ban, dual-metal, replaces a 3-year-old framework).
source ↗Cobalt — direct input as driers in alkyd paints and coatings. Cobalt naphthenate and cobalt octoate are the standard drying catalysts in solvent-borne alkyd paint systems (decorative gloss paints, industrial alkyds). AkzoNobel Decorative Paints has funded independently-published research into cobalt-free alkyd drying catalysts (Mn- and Fe-based alternatives, thiol-ene chemistry) — see Sources — whi…
The prohibition covers the raw/unprocessed form; material processed in DR Congo stays exportable under the order's own exemption — so a DR Congo processing route remains open alongside the alternatives below.
DR Congo supplies 74% of world cobalt mining — that share of your supply base is what this measure cuts off.
Supply outside 🇨🇩 CD: 🇮🇩 ID 66% · 🇷🇺 RU 12% · 🇲🇬 MG 6.1% · 🇵🇭 PH 5.6% — shares renormalised after removing CD.
CD · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches cobalt · flagged 20 Jul 2026, 79d pending
On ~29 June 2026 the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS) ordered that all first-half-2026 cobalt export quotas left unused by 30 June 2026 be forfeited and recovered, with a 5 July 2026 cutoff, and reallocated into ARECOMS's discretionary "strategic quota" pool (already ~10% of the 96,600 t/yr authorised volume) earmarked for national-interest local-processing projects. This is an escalation/operationalisation of the filed 2025-02-22 ARECOMS cobalt quota system: it concentrates additional volume under state discretionary control, tightens the effective free-market allocation for producers (Glencore/KCC, CMOC, ERG) on the world's dominant cobalt chokepoint (~76% of mine supply), and — via the linked customs-notification malfunction that blocked quota-linked export declarations after 1 July 2026 — created a real short-run supply interruption. IPTM action would be an AMENDMENT to 2025-02-22-drc-arecoms-cobalt-export-ban-quota-system.
source ↗Cobalt — direct input as driers in alkyd paints and coatings. Cobalt naphthenate and cobalt octoate are the standard drying catalysts in solvent-borne alkyd paint systems (decorative gloss paints, industrial alkyds). AkzoNobel Decorative Paints has funded independently-published research into cobalt-free alkyd drying catalysts (Mn- and Fe-based alternatives, thiol-ene chemistry) — see Sources — whi…
DR Congo supplies 74% of world cobalt mining — that share of your supply base is what this measure cuts off.
Supply outside 🇨🇩 CD: 🇮🇩 ID 66% · 🇷🇺 RU 12% · 🇲🇬 MG 6.1% · 🇵🇭 PH 5.6% — shares renormalised after removing CD.
BR · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches manganesecobalt · flagged 19 Jun 2026, 110d pending
First federal statutory framework for critical and strategic minerals; establishes CMCE oversight committee, R$2B Mineral Activity Guarantee Fund (0. 2% gross revenue levy on critical-mineral companies), mandatory 0. 3% gross revenue R&D investment, 20% tax credits for domestic mineral transformation projects; limits raw-mineral exports where domestic processing capacity exists; covers niobium explicitly (CBMM/CMOC supply ~85% of global niobium — Brazil is a structural chokepoint); Chamber passed 343-97 on 7 May 2026, Senate review pending
source ↗Manganese — direct input as secondary drier in alkyd coatings. Manganese compounds (manganese octoate/naphthenate) are co-driers used alongside cobalt in oxidatively drying alkyd systems; they are a standard formulation component in gloss paints, primers, and oil-based protective coatings. Manganese is an EU CRM with supply dominated by South Africa and Gabon.
Cobalt — direct input as driers in alkyd paints and coatings. Cobalt naphthenate and cobalt octoate are the standard drying catalysts in solvent-borne alkyd paint systems (decorative gloss paints, industrial alkyds). AkzoNobel Decorative Paints has funded independently-published research into cobalt-free alkyd drying catalysts (Mn- and Fe-based alternatives, thiol-ene chemistry) — see Sources — whi…
This changes the form of what Brazil exports, not whether you can buy: raw/unprocessed exports are restricted while domestically processed material stays available — that is the measure's own mechanism. Your Brazil-origin raw feed becomes processed-only; the route is a value-added purchase or a Brazil processing partner, not a supplier switch.
Brazil supplies 4.0% of world manganese mining — that is the stake if its terms tighten.
Secondary — only if you need to avoid Brazil entirely: manganese supply outside BR is 🇿🇦 ZA 42%, 🇬🇦 GA 28%, 🇬🇭 GH 11% (shares renormalised after removing BR); cobalt supply outside BR is 🇨🇩 CD 78%, 🇮🇩 ID 15%, 🇷🇺 RU 2.6% (shares renormalised after removing BR).
TZ · stage awaiting-signature → high likelihood · touches cobalttitanium · flagged 26 Jun 2026, 103d pending
TZ Finance Bill establishes the Mineral Research Fund capitalised at 10% of gross mineral revenue (~TZS 141 billion/yr at 2025 collection levels); amends the Income Tax Act to formally recognise tax exemptions granted under individual mining Framework Agreements and introduces standard operating procedures — reduces discretionary government risk for large mining investors (Panda Hill niobium, graphite juniors, Buzwagi gold); parallel VAT amendments give equivalent statutory certainty for VAT exemptions; taken together, the bill moves Tanzania from discretionary tax administration toward a rule-of-law-based investor regime for all critical-mineral projects; budget targets Tanzania for top-4 niobium producer status (Panda Hill DA already signed March 24, 2026) and 50% geophysical survey coverage by 2030
source ↗Cobalt — direct input as driers in alkyd paints and coatings. Cobalt naphthenate and cobalt octoate are the standard drying catalysts in solvent-borne alkyd paint systems (decorative gloss paints, industrial alkyds). AkzoNobel Decorative Paints has funded independently-published research into cobalt-free alkyd drying catalysts (Mn- and Fe-based alternatives, thiol-ene chemistry) — see Sources — whi…
Titanium (as titanium dioxide/TiO2 pigment) — primary dependency. TiO2 is the dominant white pigment in architectural and industrial paints; AkzoNobel explicitly names it as a key raw material obtained from selected key suppliers. EU production capacity for pigment-grade TiO2 is structurally short, and China accounts for a growing share of global supply.
The filed text doesn't state this instrument's mechanism clearly enough to classify, so we don't guess a response — the measure text above is the read.
GA · stage passed-vote → high likelihood · touches manganese · flagged 26 Jun 2026, 103d pending
Gabon (CTRI transitional government, President Oligui Nguema) announced at Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi (May 2026) its intention to subscribe to Eramet SA's €500M capital increase, giving the Gabonese state direct equity in the French-listed parent of COMILOG (its primary manganese mining subsidiary in Moanda). Gabon already holds 29% of COMILOG; a stake in Eramet SA itself would give Gabon leverage over the global operations of the parent group (smelting, nickel, lithium, manganese across France, Norway, Senegal, and Indonesia) and a seat at the Eramet Board. Eramet AGM (May 27, 2026) approved the capital raise resolution. Capital raise planned for H2 2026. Distinct from: filed 2025-05-30-gabon-raw-manganese-export-ban-2029 (the export ban forcing value-addition); filed 2024-07-02-gabon-decret-0276-regimes-des-substances-souveraines (35% state free-carry in new mines) — this is an equity purchase in the parent company, not a free-carry in a Gabonese concession; new vector of state resource-control
source ↗Manganese — direct input as secondary drier in alkyd coatings. Manganese compounds (manganese octoate/naphthenate) are co-driers used alongside cobalt in oxidatively drying alkyd systems; they are a standard formulation component in gloss paints, primers, and oil-based protective coatings. Manganese is an EU CRM with supply dominated by South Africa and Gabon.
This changes the form of what GA exports, not whether you can buy: raw/unprocessed exports are restricted while domestically processed material stays available — that is the measure's own mechanism. Your GA-origin raw feed becomes processed-only; the route is a value-added purchase or a GA processing partner, not a supplier switch.
GA supplies 25% of world manganese mining — that is the stake if its terms tighten.
Secondary — only if you need to avoid GA entirely: manganese supply outside GA is 🇿🇦 ZA 55%, 🇬🇭 GH 14%, 🇦🇺 AU 12% (shares renormalised after removing GA).
Revises 30 CFR Part 580 to streamline 10 provisions governing prospecting, leasing, and operations for hard minerals (manganese nodules, cobalt-rich crusts, seafloor massive sulfides) on the US Outer…
If enacted, chrome ore export tax and/or quota would disrupt South Africa's ~2.
Senate-approved package of amendments to Kazakhstan's Code on Subsoil and Subsoil Use (No.
Japan's METI + MOF made an affirmative PRELIMINARY determination in an anti-dumping investigation (initiated 22 Jul 2025 on an application from Nippon Steel, Nippon Yakin Kogyo, NAS Stainless Steel S…
Establishes the first legally binding "safe level" benchmark for EU strategic stocks of each of the 17 strategic raw materials listed in the CRMA Annex I; benchmarks used as reference by Member State…
Minister of Finance, acting under s.
Cabinet-cleared bill to replace the 2006 Minerals and Mining Act, Act 703: raises mining royalties from current 3–5% range to 9–12% (price-linked sliding scale), introduces a new medium-scale mining…
Replaces 2016 Code Minier; embeds 'sovereignty doctrine' with stronger state participation, local-transformation mandate, and WAEMU-conformity requirements; President Faye targeted adoption before en…
Mongolia's cabinet approved and submitted to the State Great Khural a draft amending ~40% of the 2006 Minerals Law: (i) cuts the maximum exploration-licence duration from 12 to 6 years while raising…
RESourceEU (COM(2025) 945, 3 Dec 2025) commits the Commission to establish a **European Critical Raw Materials Centre** in early 2026 with four functions: (a) generate **systemic market intelligence…
Tanzania's Ministry of Minerals (Minister Anthony Mavunde) has FINALISED a Critical and Strategic Minerals Strategy that takes legal effect only once the Government formally approves and gazettes the…
Madagascar's Council of Ministers approved resumption of mining-permit issuance on ~28-29 Jan 2026, ending a moratorium in place since 2010 (imposed during a political transition amid mining-title sp…
Minister of Mines, Petroleum and Energy Mamadou Sangafowa-Coulibaly formally launched the revision of Côte d'Ivoire's 2014 Mining Code on 13 June 2026, standing up an expert team drawn from his minis…
10% free-carried state equity in ALL new mining and energy projects (no-cost government stake via Epangelo Mining); consultations on 51% Namibian ownership in new mining ventures; maximum royalty rat…
Gabon = ~25% world manganese reserves, world's 2nd largest manganese ore exporter (~8 Mt/year via COMILOG/Eramet); ban on raw ore exports forces domestic processing investment (silicomanganese, EMD,…
If adopted, creates a unified mining regulatory framework across Cameroon, CAR, Congo-Brazzaville, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, and Chad — harmonising licensing regimes, fiscal terms, transparency oblig…
Binding plurilateral trade agreement among like-minded partners (US, EU, Japan and FORGE coalition members) establishing coordinated trade measures for critical mineral supply chains — including bord…
Second wave of CRMA Art.
VP Constantino Chiwenga announced at the Zimbabwe-China Business Forum (Hangzhou) that Zimbabwe will no longer issue new mining licences for operations that extract only one mineral from a deposit —…
Zimbabwean officials have signalled intent ("raw chrome exports obsolete") to expand the 25-Feb-2026 raw-mineral/lithium-concentrate export ban (filed) to cover chrome CONCENTRATE specifically — conc…
On 10 July 2026 the African Development Bank Group, with the African Union Commission, the AfCFTA Secretariat and UNECA, convened African ministers of mining/energy/industry in Abidjan for the "Minis…
VP declared no new large-scale mining agreement will be concluded without a binding value-addition commitment; Mines Minister referenced Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Ghana, and Malawi precedents for raw-miner…
All DRC mining operators (Glencore, CMOC, Ivanhoe Mines, Eurasian Resources Group, and 50+ others) must transfer 5% of share capital to Congolese employees by July 31, 2026 or face permit suspension;…
Saudi sovereign mining vehicle Manara Minerals (PIF + Ma'aden JV) is in advanced negotiations to acquire a 15-20% equity stake (deal value ~USD 1.
Ministry of Mines issued operational guidelines for the Mining Sector Reforms component under Scheme for Special Assistance to States for Capital Investment (SASCI) FY2026-27, with total ₹5,000 crore…
Full replacement of the Mining Act 1992 with sweeping new statute: state acquires up to 30% equity in any new mining project (Kumul Minerals free-carry); special mining leases (SML) issued for initia…
2 of 44 filed an explicit in-force stage; the rest (flagged below) default from an absent stage: field, not a filed assertion. Each links to the register entry with its primary source.
For a material it buys, a restriction tightens supply and raises input cost — a headwind. Scores are footprint-adjusted and buyer-relative (0–100, higher = more exposed).
Its customers sit in manufacturing, petrochemicals. A measure supporting those sectors supports demand for this company's products; one restricting them puts that demand at risk. The sign shown is the mechanical read — click through to judge whether a measure protects or constrains the customer.
For each bought material: the ex-controller producers a procurement team can actually reach, from the alternatives map (derived 2026-10-07), viability-gated — each name carries its deployment status (with the verbatim dossier phrase it rests on), a capture check against the measure being escaped, and any contracted-capacity evidence. Deployable-now names sort first; a developer with zero tonnes is shown demoted, never dressed up as a switch you can make today. Tradability is inherited from the listing layer, never guessed.
+11 more tradable names, ranked below these by the same gate.
+26 more tradable names, ranked below these by the same gate.
+5 more tradable names, ranked below these by the same gate.
lib/policy-transmission.ts): an export prohibition in the measure's name/text → supply restriction; a raw/unprocessed-export limit or local-processing mandate → beneficiation (form change, not unavailability); reporting/disclosure/due-diligence language → compliance obligation; tariff/trade-remedy language → import cost; subsidy/fast-track/relaxation language → support; investment-screening/M&A language → investment control. When the text carries no signal we fall back to the action-type default and label the chip inferred; when neither exists the card says so and derives no response — we never assert a class the evidence doesn't support.lib/iptm-material-country-production.ts; mining stage preferred, refining as fallback — the stage and source year are in each figure's hover text). Ex-issuer supply removes the ISSUING country and renormalises the remaining listed shares (so they sum to 100% of what's left) — alternatives to the country making the rule, never a default ex-China list. Where the issuer holds no measurable share, the card says so plainly instead of implying supply loss.lib/alternative-viability.ts): each named alternative carries a deployment status — operating / ramping / restarting / development / unknown — derived from word-boundary signal phrases in its own dossier (“operating since 1896”, “restarting the … mine”, “FID taken”), and the verbatim matched phrase is shown as the basis so the claim is auditable; a dossier with no signal stays unknown, never guessed. Any evidenced production date is quoted verbatim (“first production targeted H2 2029” → “no tonnes before 2029”) — we never synthesize one. A measure whose own text claims extraterritorial / re-export / de-minimis / foreign-direct-product / percentage-of-value scope triggers the origin-switching warning above the list: such a rule follows the material, not the seller, so a foreign-made alternative can still be captured. Same-issuer register actions targeting an alternative's country and material mark it may be captured, with the entries linked. “Capacity partly committed” lines quote the dossier verbatim — we hold no structured free-capacity numbers and never imply a utilisation figure.How MacroLens tracks this for you. The policy register files new measures daily and this page recomputes from it — the same chokepoints are monitored live on the watchlist and in the full register.