Loading…
Loading…
Structured register of government actions in the geoeconomic space — export controls, tariffs, sanctions, FDI screening, subsidies, industrial-policy laws — cross-referenced into the country, minerals, and ETF surface. Charter: docs/IPTM_CHARTER.md.
Severity 1-5 is the qualitative impact rating (1=minor, 5=structural). The bilateral-trade-grounded quant scorer is the next IPTM milestone. RBI (Register Breadth Index) is a complementary structural-breadth indicator from scripts/py/iptm/breadth.py; divergence between RBI and severity is itself informative (high-sev / low-RBI = strategic chokepoint; low-sev / high-RBI = broad but shallow). Every action has at least one primary source URL. Verify-or-don't-file. See also themes, timeline, graph, sankey, map, country exposure, sector exposure, material exposure (+ graph), weekly briefs, portfolio scan, escalation monitor, trans-shipment hubs. Internal triage tools (RSS-poller candidate feed, source-feed health) live under /admin/candidates + /admin/sources. Subscribe via Atom feed (accepts ?country=CN, ?material=lithium, ?issuer=BIS, ?type=export_control, ?etf=SOXX, ?company=NVDA, ?minSeverity=4, ?year=2026, ?q=…) or pull /api/iptm/actions.
On 14 September 2026 the European Commission adopted a Delegated Regulation (reference C(2026)6323) amending Annex I of Regulation (EU) 2021/821 to add newly-controlled dual-use items implementing the 2025 multilateral cycle of the Wassenaar Arrangement, MTCR, Australia Group, and NSG. New entries include semiconductor fabrication equipment (atomic layer deposition, EUV inspection systems, wafer cleaning), advanced computing ICs with digital processing units, ceramic matrix composites, additive-manufacturing systems for energetic materials, and chemical vapor deposition equipment for silicon carbide fibre production. The regulation is not yet in force: it now enters the standard two-month European Parliament/Council non-objection scrutiny period before publication in the Official Journal.
China's Ministry of Commerce issued Announcement No. 23 of 2026 on June 22, 2026, adding 10 US entities to the Export Control Management List under the Export Control Law and Dual-Use Items Export Control Regulations. The listing prohibits Chinese exporters from supplying dual-use items to these entities and bars any global party from transferring China-origin dual-use goods to them; ongoing transactions are suspended pending MOFCOM approval. The 10 entities include the two largest non-Chinese rare earth producers — MP Materials Corp. (Mountain Pass, CA) and USA Rare Earth Inc. (Round Top, TX) — as well as eight US defence firms (Aveox, Red Cat Holdings, Teal Drones, IMSAR, Jaia Robotics, Ball Aerospace, Oshkosh Defense, L3Harris Maritime). MOFCOM explicitly framed the action as retaliation for the US DoD's June 8, 2026 update to the Section 1260H Chinese Military Companies list, which added ~80 Chinese parent firms and 188 affiliates.
DGFT Notification No. 16/2026-27 (13 May 2026) escalated the export policy for sugar under ITC(HS) codes 1701 14 90 (raw sugar) and 1701 99 90 (white and refined sugar) from "Restricted" to "Prohibited" with immediate effect, covering all three commercial grades. The prohibition runs until 30 September 2026, or until a further Central Government order, whichever is earlier. The measure is a pre-emptive domestic price-stabilisation step ahead of an uncertain 2025-26 sugarcane season; carve-outs preserve EU and US CXL/Tariff-Rate-Quota obligations, Advance Authorisation Scheme exports, government-to-government shipments, and consignments already in the physical export pipeline before 13 May 2026.
Zambia's Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry gazetted Statutory Instrument No. 17 of 2026 on 20 March 2026 (effective 27 March 2026), replacing a prior outright export prohibition on sulphuric acid with a permit-based export control regime under the Control of Goods Act (Chapter 421). The instrument was triggered by an acute domestic shortage after multiple major Zambian copper smelters entered simultaneous extended maintenance shutdowns in 2025, collapsing by-product acid production. As the dominant supplier of sulphuric acid to DRC hydrometallurgical copper and cobalt mines, Zambia's restriction disrupted leaching operations across the DRC's oxide-ore processing chain. A partial easing began in May 2026 as smelter capacity recovered, with company-specific export authorisations issued to Chambishi Copper Smelter and Mopani Copper Mines.
The Zambian Minister of Finance suspended the 10% export duty on copper concentrates (HS 2603.00.21–29) effective 5 March 2026 under Section 89 of the Customs and Excise Act, providing temporary duty relief to miners whose domestic processing capacity was constrained by extended smelter maintenance cycles at Mopani/ZCCM-IH, Lumwana (Barrick), First Quantum Kansanshi, and Nkana. The suspension allows qualifying copper concentrate to be exported for offshore processing at zero duty, addressing a stockpile overhang across Zambia's copper belt that could not be absorbed by the domestic smelter fleet. A follow-on extension (SI No. 43/2026, effective 1 June 2026 through 30 September 2026) introduced company-specific quotas totalling 271,742 t and mandated channelling through Industrial Resources Limited, an IDC subsidiary.
On 25 February 2026 Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines and Mining Development, under Minister Polite Kambamura, announced an immediate and indefinite suspension of exports of all unprocessed minerals — including lithium-bearing spodumene concentrates, which had previously been exempt from the country's December 2022 ban on raw lithium ore (Statutory Instrument 213 of 2022). The directive was communicated by ministerial letter dated 17 February 2026 to the Chamber of Mines of Zimbabwe and copied to lithium producers; the suspension took effect on 25 February and explicitly covered consignments already in transit, with the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority (ZIMRA) and the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ) ordered to halt clearance at the border. The measure brings forward by roughly eleven months a lithium-concentrate export ban that had been telegraphed for January 2027, and broadens it to all raw mineral exports. The Minister cited "national interest", in-country beneficiation, transparency, and prevention of mineral export "leakages" (smuggling and under-invoicing) as the rationale. Bloomberg and Reuters reporting noted under-declaration of grade and value as a proximate trigger; the government later (April 2026) clarified that reinstated exports would require Quota Verification certificates, monthly reporting, on-site assay laboratories, and individual producer-level export ceilings — i.e. the suspension functions as a reset to a quota regime rather than a permanent embargo. Zimbabwe is the world's fifth-largest lithium producer (~6-7% of global supply on a contained-LCE basis) and exported 1.128 million tonnes of spodumene concentrate in 2025 (an 11% YoY increase). The producer base is overwhelmingly Chinese-owned: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (Arcadia / Prospect), Sinomine Resource Group (Bikita Minerals), Chengxin Lithium (Sabi Star), and Sichuan Yahua (Kamativi) together account for the majority of output. The ban therefore primarily disrupts Chinese midstream lithium converters in Sichuan and Jiangxi that depend on Zimbabwean spodumene feedstock, while incrementally tightening the global seaborne concentrate market. The action is structurally a continuation of the EM resource-nationalism / upstream-capture template pioneered by Indonesia's nickel-ore ban (2020) and most recently extended by the DRC's ARECOMS cobalt suspension and quota system (Feb-Oct 2025). It reinforces a pattern in which producing-country governments capture processing margin from consuming-country smelters, and it does so in a commodity (lithium) where ex-China refining capacity is still thin, magnifying near-term price impact even though the headline share of global supply removed is moderate.
The US Bureau of Industry and Security issued a final rule (RIN 0694-AK43, 91 FR 1684, signed 13 January 2026, effective 15 January 2026) revising the EAR license-review policy for exports of certain advanced-computing integrated circuits to end-users in China and Macau from a presumption of denial to case-by-case review. Eligibility is limited to commodities controlled under ECCN 3A090.a and 3A090.b with a Total Processing Performance (TPP) below 21,000 and total DRAM bandwidth below 6,500 GB/s — the band that covers NVIDIA H200 and AMD MI325X-equivalents and below. To qualify, exporters must certify (i) sufficiency of US supply such that the export will not delay domestic orders or divert foundry capacity, (ii) that aggregate TPP of advanced-node ICs exported to China or Macau will not exceed 50% of domestic shipments, (iii) compliance with end-use and end-user prohibitions, and (iv) prior performance review by a qualified independent third-party testing lab headquartered in the United States. The rule is the first material rollback of the October 2022 / October 2023 / December 2024 advanced-computing export-control architecture and operationalises the Trump-administration policy of trading H200-class chip access against Chinese cooperation on critical minerals, fentanyl precursors and Taiwan-strait restraint.
Vietnam's 15th National Assembly adopted Law No. 147/2025/QH15 ("Law amending and supplementing some articles of the Law on Geology and Minerals") on 11 December 2025 by 421 of 432 deputies in favour (89.01%), at the 10th session, with effect from 1 January 2026. The amendment slots a dedicated rare-earth framework into the parent Law No. 54/2024/QH15, classifying rare earths as "special strategic" minerals subject to strict state management. Raw rare-earth ore export is prohibited; only state-designated or state-approved enterprises may explore, exploit, process and use rare earths; all activity must conform to a national rare-earth strategy and master plan. The state centralises geological data, regulates rare-earth import/export flows according to national needs, and builds strategic stockpiles. The amendment converts the 2024 framework law's general domestic-supply priority into an explicit raw-export ban for the world's second-largest known rare-earth resource holder.
Indonesia's Ministry of Finance issued Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 80 of 2025 on 17 November 2025, imposing tiered export duties on gold products effective 23 December 2025. Rates range from 7.5% to 15% depending on product form (dore, granules, or ingots/cast bars) and a reference-price trigger at US$3,200/troy oz, with dore attracting the highest duty (12.5% below $3,200/oz; 15% at or above). The policy aims to secure domestic gold supply, stabilise local refinery feedstock prices, and advance Indonesia's hilirisasi (downstreaming) agenda by incentivising in-country processing of raw gold output.
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and General Administration of Customs (GAC) issued Announcement No. 70 (2025) on November 7, 2025, suspending for one year the package of rare-earth export-control measures announced on October 9, 2025 (Announcements Nos. 55, 56, 57, 58, 61, 62). The suspended measures include the licensing regime on medium- and heavy-rare-earth elements, rare-earth processing equipment and technologies, lithium-battery and synthetic-graphite anode materials, superhard materials, and — most significantly — the extraterritorial "0.1% content" rule of Announcement No. 61 that asserted licence jurisdiction over foreign-made products containing Chinese-origin controlled rare earths. The gazette text fixes the window explicitly: "自即日起至2026年11月10日" (from the date of issue until November 10, 2026). This is the rare-earth leg of the post-Busan US-China truce; the dual-use leg (gallium, germanium, antimony, graphite) was suspended two days later by the separate Announcement No. 72 (2025), which runs to November 27, 2026. The two instruments create a two-step expiry cliff in November 2026.
President Peter Mutharika signed an executive order effective 21 October 2025 prohibiting the export of all raw, unprocessed minerals extracted in Malawi, covering uranium, rare earth elements, niobium, graphite, tantalum, bauxite, rutile, gold, copper, diamonds, heavy mineral sands, and all other minerals. Minerals that have been processed, refined, or value-added in Malawi are exempt. The order aligns with an announced National Mining Corporation to oversee mineral production and processing, and introduces fines and sanctions under Malawi law for violations.
Government Resolution No. 1535 of 3 October 2025 introduced a temporary export customs duty of 10% of customs value on oil (oilseed) flax exported from Russia beyond the Eurasian Economic Union, entering into force 12 October 2025 and running through 31 August 2026. The duty was previously zero. The government's stated rationale is to stimulate utilisation of domestic flax-processing capacity and rebalance the domestic market against raw-material exports; the same package established regional export quotas for corn. Global Trade Alert records Belgium, China, and Czechia as the export destinations most exposed to the higher raw-material cost.
China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) jointly issued Announcement No. 28 of 2025 on 15 July 2025, partially adjusting the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export" first published under Announcement No. 57 of 2023. The revision adds new restricted-export entries covering LFP/LMFP cathode electrode material preparation technology, lithium carbonate/lithium hydroxide preparation technology, and gallium processing technology, extending Beijing's export-control perimeter from raw critical minerals into upstream battery-material process technology. The same revision removed three unrelated entries (traditional Chinese architectural technology and building environment-control technology) from the prohibited/restricted lists. The catalogue took effect immediately upon publication and followed a January 2025 public-consultation draft.
Malaysia's Ministry of Investment, Trade and Industry, acting through the Strategic Trade Controller, issued Directive No. 1/2025 on 14 July 2025 invoking Section 12 of the Strategic Trade Act 2010 to declare high-performance US-origin AI chips (GPUs, TPUs, neural processors, AI accelerators meeting the Annex I total-processing-performance and performance-density thresholds) as "unlisted controlled items". With effect from 14 July 2025, any export, transshipment, or transit of those chips through Malaysian territory requires a Strategic Trade Permit, a 30-day prior notification, an export-control classification from the manufacturer, and a re-export licence from the originating country. The directive is the formal Malaysian response to US scrutiny over alleged Nvidia AI-chip flows to China via Malaysian freight forwarders and data-centre operators, and it remains binding even after the US relaxes its own export rules.
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed Decree No. UP-47 on 14 March 2025, introducing export duties on 86 categories of goods to incentivise domestic processing of strategic raw materials and align Uzbekistan's trade policy with WTO norms. The measure replaces the existing system of export permits for many commodities with ad-valorem duties, phased in across three tranches (June 2025, July 2025, January 2026 and January 2028). Headline rates include 100% on cotton lint, scrap metal, flour and rice; 30% on wheat and meat; and 10-20% on copper, polymers and natural gas — a dual-purpose instrument combining food-security supply controls with industrial-policy downstreaming incentives.
Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan Nomor 8 Tahun 2025 (Permendag 8/2025), signed 6 March 2025 and effective 10 March 2025, is the Third Amendment to Indonesia's Export-Prohibited Goods List (Permendag 22/2023), revising prohibited-export categories across seven commodity groups: forestry (wood, bamboo), agriculture (natural rubber, porang, rice, kratom), subsidised fertilisers (nitrogen-containing mineral/chemical fertilisers), mining (tin and minerals subject to general downstream-processing rules), cultural heritage, metal waste/scrap (iron and steel), and marine sedimentation products (sea sand, marine sludge). The regulation introduces a structured hilirisasi force-majeure relaxation pathway allowing companies that have completed construction of domestic mineral refining/smelting facilities — but cannot yet operate due to force majeure — to temporarily export copper concentrate with a minimum 15% Cu content, subject to Ministry of Trade approval. It is the direct predecessor to the Fourth Amendment (Permendag 6/2026, 26 March 2026).
MOFCOM and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued Announcement No. 10 [2025] on 4 February 2025, imposing dual-use export-licence controls on items related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium under the Export Control Law and Dual-Use Items Export Control Regulations. The controls cover metals, alloys, powders, compounds and related processing technologies across roughly 25 listed item categories (41 HS 10-digit codes). The measure is global in scope but was issued the same day China announced 10-15% retaliatory tariffs on US LNG, coal, crude and farm equipment in response to the Trump administration's 10% fentanyl-tariff hike — extending the MOFCOM critical-minerals control regime beyond gallium/germanium/graphite/antimony/heavy-REEs.
After a comprehensive two-year mining ban (August 2023–April 2025), Wa State authorities formally opened new three-year licence applications for mining, processing, and prospecting in Man Maw in February 2025, with permits issued to operators from approximately April 2025. The restart regime imposes a 30% universal tax-in-kind on all tin concentrate exports plus an additional 5% first-batch concentrate levy to fund joint mine dewatering, materially re-pricing approximately 10% of global tin concentrate supply. Shipments recovered to ~1,300 tonnes contained tin per month by November–December 2025.
Indonesia's Ministry of Trade promulgated Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 10 of 2024 on 30 May 2024, amending Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export. The regulation set 31 December 2024 as the final cutoff for copper-concentrate and anode-sludge exports — extending the original 1 June 2024 ban deadline by seven months — and enforced a full prohibition starting 1 January 2025. The measure is paired with ESDM Regulation No. 6 of 2024 covering the upstream mining-product side, completing the legal architecture of Indonesia's copper "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) mandate. The ban forces all domestically mined copper concentrate to be smelted and refined inside Indonesia. Two operators are directly affected: PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), majority-owned by state holding MIND ID with Freeport-McMoRan as minority partner, which operates the Grasberg mine in Papua and the new Manyar/Gresik smelter in JIIPE; and PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (subsidiary of PT Amman Mineral Internasional, IDX:AMMN), which operates the Batu Hijau mine in Sumbawa with a smelter under commissioning. A fire at Freeport's Gresik smelter in October 2024 disrupted ramp-up and forced the government to grant a discretionary export-permit extension into 2025 for PTFI, signalling that the ban — while now legally in force — is being enforced flexibly during smelter commissioning rather than as a hard stop. Permendag 10/2024 is the copper-sector equivalent of the 2020 nickel- ore export ban (ESDM 11/2019) and the planned bauxite-ore ban (effective June 2023). Together these three measures complete Indonesia's resource-nationalism package across its three highest-value mineral exports: nickel, bauxite, and copper. Combined domestic smelter capex commitments tied to the copper rule (Freeport Manyar + Amman Sumbawa) total ~USD 6 billion. Indonesia's Finance Ministry estimated forgone export revenue of ~Rp 10 trillion (~USD 640 million per year) from the copper-concentrate ban alone, which the government is treating as an acceptable downstream-policy cost. Severity is set at 4: the action is binding, durable, and reshapes a globally relevant supply chain (Indonesia is ~5% of global mined copper, rising), but discretionary export extensions during smelter commissioning soften near-term enforcement and limit the immediate market shock relative to the harder 2020 nickel rule.
Ministerial order signed by the French Minister of Economy on 2 February 2024 and published in JORF n°0034 of 10 February 2024 establishing France's first national export-control list under Article 9 of EU Regulation 2021/821 on dual-use goods. The arrêté requires prior authorisation for exports to non-EU third countries of (i) quantum computers and their enabling technologies (qubit devices, control systems, measurement equipment) and (ii) equipment for the design, development, production, test and inspection of advanced electronic components, plus associated software and technology. The annex was substantively replaced by the Arrêté du 27 mars 2025 (explicit technical thresholds including ≥34-qubit systems with C-NOT error ≤10⁻⁴, HBM 6000+ processing performance, cryogenic cooling, dry-etch and EUV-mask tooling, and Si-28/Si-30/Ge isotopically-controlled materials) and is repealed by the Arrêté du 10 mars 2026 with entry into force 11 May 2026.
On 25 October 2023 the Bureau of Industry and Security published an interim final rule (88 FR 73424; FR Doc 2023-23055) making substantive revisions to the October 7 2022 advanced-computing IFR, incorporating 43 public comments covering 78 topics. The rule replaced the prior TOPS-based performance metric with a new "Total Processing Performance" (TPP) / performance-density dual-threshold structure for ECCN 3A090, splitting the control into tiers 3A090.a (full licence requirement for highest-capability datacenter AI chips) and 3A090.b (new License Exception NAC with 25-day prior notification for the intermediate tier). Geographic scope was expanded from China-and-Macau to Country Groups D:1/D:4/D:5 to block diversion via third-country intermediaries and offshore datacenters.
At its 8th Decision-Making Meeting on 6 June 2023, Namibia's Cabinet approved a prohibition on the export of unprocessed critical minerals — specifically crushed lithium ore, cobalt, manganese, graphite, and rare earth elements — with only small quantities permitted for export upon written ministerial approval. The policy is operationalised through discretionary Ministerial authority under the Minerals (Prospecting and Mining) Act 33 of 1992, with no new statute enacted. The measure is designed to compel domestic beneficiation under Namibia's Mineral Beneficiation Strategy (MBS), capturing refining and processing margin that would otherwise accrue to consuming-country smelters.
The Wa State Central Economic Planning Commission (the administrative authority of the United Wa State Army's Special Region No. 2, controlling the Man Maw and Mong Yaw tin zones) issued Notice "Wa Jing Zi No. 2023-06" on April 15, 2023, mandating a comprehensive suspension of all mining, excavation, and mineral processing in Wa State until "mature mining conditions" are in place. A follow-up implementation order on May 20, 2023 confirmed all mines and processing plants—regardless of scale—must cease operations by August 1, 2023. Man Maw alone supplied approximately 10% of global tin concentrate, and LME three-month tin prices rose ~9% in the weeks following the April announcement. The suspension remained in force until mid-2025 when a new three-year licensing regime replaced it (see 2025-02-01-myanmar-wa-state-man-maw-tin-restart-licensing).
Statutory Instrument 57 of 2023, the Base Minerals Export Control (Unbeneficiated Base Mineral Ores) (Amendment) Order, 2023 (No. 1), was issued by Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines and Mining Development (Hon. Winston Chitando) in April 2023 to amend the foundational SI 5 of 2023 ban on raw base-mineral ore exports. The amendment imposes lithium-specific permit conditions: exporters must either own an Approved Processing Plant (APP) or contractually commit to building one within two years of receiving an export permit, unbeneficiated lithium permits may only be granted to Zimbabwean citizens or wholly-Zimbabwean-owned entities, and any such permit further requires the President's concurrence. The order also requires that beneficiated lithium export prices not fall below the floor set by the Minerals Marketing Corporation of Zimbabwe (MMCZ), and stipulates penalties of up to level 9 fines or twice the value of the mineral involved, plus up to two years' imprisonment, for non-compliance. SI 57 sits between the December 2022 lithium-bearing-ore ban (SI 213/2022) and the February 2026 ministerial directive that suspended all raw-mineral and lithium-concentrate exports outright — it is the foundational statutory architecture that the 2026 reset later operated on top of.
Indonesia banned the export of raw bauxite ore (including washed bauxite) effective 10 June 2023, extending the "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) doctrine that previously prohibited nickel-ore exports (effective 1 January 2020) to the country's second-largest mineral export. The ban is implemented through the existing Mining Law framework (UU 3/2020 amending UU 4/2009) and operationalised via Ministry of Trade Regulation Permendag 18/2022 on Provisions for Mining-Product Exports. President Joko Widodo formally announced the bauxite-export-ban schedule on 21 December 2022, citing forecast revenue uplift from IDR 21 trillion to IDR 62 trillion (~USD 1.35bn → ~USD 3.9bn) once domestic alumina/ aluminium refining ramps.
Indonesia accelerated the implementation of its raw nickel ore export ban, originally scheduled for 2022, to take effect on 1 January 2020. Announced 30 August 2019 by Minister Ignasius Jonan via ESDM Regulation No. 11/2019, the ban prohibits the export of nickel ore with grades below 1.7% Ni (effectively all Indonesian saprolite and limonite ore that previously flowed to Chinese stainless-steel and ferronickel mills) and forces ore to be processed domestically into intermediate products (nickel pig iron, ferronickel, mixed hydroxide precipitate, nickel sulfate). The policy is part of the long-running "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) strategy and was the trigger for the >$30B wave of Chinese-led nickel- processing investment in Sulawesi (Morowali, Weda Bay) that has since made Indonesia the dominant global nickel producer.