Industrial Policy & Trade Monitor· 2665 actions· ✨ 90 recent

On June 2, 2026, USTR published final actionability findings in 60 parallel Section 301(b) investigations — the largest simultaneous Section 301 action in US history — determining that all 60 economies maintain unreasonable acts, policies, or practices by failing to impose or effectively enforce a prohibition on imports produced with forced labor. USTR proposed two additional duty rates: 10% on the 14 economies with partial forced-labor regimes (Canada, Ecuador, EU, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Argentina, Bangladesh, Cambodia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Malaysia, Taiwan, UK) and 12.5% on the remaining 46 economies. Tariff rates remain proposed pending a July 7, 2026 public hearing and subsequent finalization; the actionability determination is final.

Indonesia's Komite Anti Dumping Indonesia (KADI) issued an affirmative preliminary dumping-and-injury determination against hot-rolled coil (HRC, uncoated/unplated, width ≥600mm, HS 7208 subheadings) originating from Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd (WISCO) of the People's Republic of China. The resulting provisional anti-dumping duty (Bea Masuk Antidumping Sementara / BMADS) of 17.50% ad valorem was imposed via Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 32 Tahun 2026, effective 27 May 2026 through 22 November 2026. Under Indonesia's PP No. 34/2011 statutory framework, KADI must complete its investigation within 12 months; a definitive duty, revision, or termination will follow.

On 20 May 2026 President Prabowo Subianto signed a Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah tentang Tata Kelola Ekspor Komoditas Sumber Daya Alam) establishing PT Danantara Sumber Daya Indonesia (DSI) — a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Danantara sovereign-investment holding company — as the sole legal exporter ("eksportir tunggal") for palm oil (CPO and derivatives), thermal and metallurgical coal, and ferroalloys (ferronickel, nickel pig iron, ferromanganese, ferrochrome), representing approximately USD 65 billion in annual Indonesian export proceeds. A phased implementation architecture applies: a transition period from 1 June through 31 August 2026 during which private exporters continue direct contractual relationships but must route all export documentation through DSI as the mandatory single-window reporting layer; followed by full implementation from 1 September 2026 under which DSI assumes the entire export chain including contract negotiation, buyer relationship, shipment booking, and payment receipt. The stated rationale is to strengthen export-flow oversight, eliminate under-invoicing and transfer-pricing-driven capital flight, and improve DHE-SDA foreign-exchange retention compliance.

Via Department Administrative Order (DAO) No. 26-03, series of 2026, signed on 20 May 2026, the Philippine DTI removed China and Indonesia from the list of developing countries exempt from the definitive general safeguard measure on ordinary Portland cement (Type 1) and blended cement, imposing a safeguard duty of PHP 349 per metric tonne (≈ US$6.09/t; PHP 14 per 40 kg bag) on imports from those two origins for three years. The removal follows the Philippine Tariff Commission's monitoring, which found China's share of total cement imports rising from 11% in 2025 to 23% in Q1 2026 and Indonesia's from 6% to 8% over the same period — both exceeding the 3% de minimis threshold that conferred exemption under the parent DAO 25-15. The underlying definitive safeguard, covering all non-exempt origins, first took effect in February 2026 following a serious-injury determination by the Tariff Commission.

Brazil's Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX) issued Circular nº 33 on 29 April 2026, confirming a preliminary affirmative determination of dumping and material injury to the Brazilian domestic industry in imports of hot-rolled stainless steel flat products (thickness 2–50.8 mm, coils and sheets, NCM 7219 and 7220 headings) from China, India and Indonesia. Preliminary dumping margins are 50.1% (China), 25.3% (Indonesia) and 17.9% (India). Despite the affirmative finding, DECOM exercised discretion not to impose provisional anti-dumping duties at this stage, citing case complexity, the three-origin scope and the volume of submitted information; the final determination is scheduled for 25 November 2026.

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 12 of 2026, signed by Trade Minister Budi Santoso and effective on its date of promulgation (29 April 2026), is the fifth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on Export Policy and Regulation. It introduces a new discretionary authority — distinct from administrative sanctions — for the Director General of Foreign Trade to suspend issuance of, freeze, and revoke Business Licensing in the Export Sector (Perizinan Berusaha di Bidang Ekspor), and to suspend verification / technical-tracing services. Crucially, it institutionalises cross-ministerial initiating authority: other ministries and agencies may formally propose suspension / freezing / revocation, with proposals reviewed in coordination meetings convened under the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs or the Coordinating Ministry for Food Affairs. Decisions are issued via INATRADE / SINSW with automated notification to exporters. The stated rationale is protecting national interests, public welfare, government-programme implementation, and presidential directives — operationalised as safeguarding domestic supply of "certain goods" (palm oil, rice, sugar, mineral, and fertiliser categories cited in policy framing).

The Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) issued final findings dated 28 April 2026 in the anti-dumping investigation concerning imports of Low Ash Metallurgical Coke (ash content ≤ 18%, HS 27040010, 27040020, 27040030, 27040090) originating in or exported from Australia, China PR, Colombia, Indonesia, Japan and Russia, recommending a downward revision of the provisional anti-dumping duties previously imposed by Notification No. 41/2025-Customs (ADD) of 31 December 2025. The final findings are recommendatory; a definitive implementing customs notification from CBIC is expected before the provisional measures expire around June 2026. Significant reductions in duty rates are recommended for Indonesian and Japanese origin imports; the investigation covers six coke-exporting countries competing with domestic producers led by Tata Steel, JSW Steel, SAIL, Jindal Steel (JSPL) and AMNS India.

Presidential decree signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum and published in the evening edition of the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 23 April 2026, in force 24 April 2026. The decree amends the Tariff of the Ley de los Impuestos Generales de Importación y de Exportación (LIGIE/TIGIE) and the Decreto que establece diversos Programas de Promoción Sectorial (PROSEC), imposing MFN import duties at 5%, 10%, 15%, 25%, 30% or 35% ad valorem on 185 tariff fractions covering chemical products, cosmetics, paper and cardboard, textiles, steel, graphic arts, aluminum manufactures, auto parts, electrical material, bicycles, musical instruments, furniture, wind turbines, and trailers. Goods originating in countries with which Mexico has a free-trade agreement remain eligible for preferential treatment, so practical incidence falls on China and other non-FTA suppliers (Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Taiwan, UAE, South Africa). Paired PROSEC modifications add tariff fractions to Article 5 sections I, II.b and XIX (electrical, electronic, automotive and auto-parts industries) at exempt (EX) rates.

The US Department of Commerce published preliminary affirmative antidumping duty (AD) determinations on April 23, 2026 (Federal Register publication April 28, 2026), finding that crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from India, Indonesia, and Laos are being sold in the US at less than fair value. Preliminary dumping margins are 123.04% for India, 35.17% for Indonesia, and 22.46% for Laos, with Commerce ordering US Customs and Border Protection to begin collecting AD cash deposits at those rates (107.77% adjusted cash-deposit rate for India; 22.06% for Laos). This runs parallel to, and stacks on top of, the CVD case on the same merchandise and countries (see responds_to), meaning combined AD+CVD cash-deposit burdens on subject imports now exceed 100% for all three origins. Final AD determinations are due July 13, 2026 (India, Indonesia) and September 9, 2026 (Laos).

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued Ministerial Decree No. 144.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2026, effective 15 April 2026, fundamentally restructuring the Nickel Ore Benchmark Price (Harga Patokan Mineral, HPM) formula that governs the minimum domestic transaction price for ore sales from IUP/IUPK miners to downstream processors. For the first time the HPM uses a multi-element comprehensive pricing formula incorporating by-product credits for cobalt, iron, and chromium alongside nickel content, and raises the Correction Factor (CF) for 1.6%-grade ore from 17% to 30% (a ~76% increase), with an inverse-linear ±1% CF adjustment per ±0.1% grade variance. The reform also shifts HPM measurement from dry-metric-ton (US$/dmt) to wet-metric-ton (US$/wmt) with explicit moisture-content deduction, covers 10 minerals including bauxite, and replaces Kepmen ESDM No. 268.K/2025. The measure redistributes economic rent from the downstream Chinese-backed HPAL/RKEF processing complex toward upstream Indonesian miners, tightening margins across Indonesia's ~50%-of-global-supply nickel-ore industry.

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 5 of 2026, signed on 26 March 2026 and effective 1 April 2026, is the fourth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on Export Policy and Regulation. It introduces three substantively significant changes: (i) restricts issuance of Export Approval (Persetujuan Ekspor / PE) for ilmenite and rutile concentrate to holders of IUP/IUPK Operasi Produksi mining permits — eliminating the prior Izin Usaha Industri (IUI) industrial pathway — extending Indonesia's hilirisasi vertical-integration doctrine to titanium feedstock; (ii) removes the Eksportir Terdaftar (ET) registered- exporter requirement for industrial tin exports, simplifying the export chain to PE + Laporan Surveyor (LS) only; (iii) mandates electronic and automatic issuance of PE where the integrated INATRADE/SINSW system documentation is complete, digitising the export-licensing chain. Additional changes tighten kratom ET validity to a three-year cap and reassign marine-species transport- document authority from the Ministry of Forestry to the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries.

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 6 of 2026 (Permendag 6/2026), signed 26 March 2026 and effective 1 April 2026, amends the appendix of Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export, making four substantive changes to Indonesia's prohibited-export list: (i) nitrogen-containing mineral and chemical fertilizers, including urea in all forms, are added to the prohibited-export list as a food-security instrument; (ii) rice is removed from the prohibited-export list, partially reversing a long-standing prohibition; (iii) rough wood, sawn wood, and wood carpentry and building products are added as value-added-export-requirement items, extending Indonesia's hilirisasi downstream-processing doctrine from minerals into the forestry-products sector; and (iv) rattan weaving materials remain prohibited for export. Together with the simultaneously enacted Permendag 5/2026 (fourth amendment to Permendag 23/2023 on export-licensing procedures), this forms Indonesia's most consequential 2026 export-regulation package.

On 11 March 2026 USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer initiated parallel Section 301 investigations into the acts, policies, and practices of 16 economies — China, the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland, Norway, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Mexico, Japan, and India — relating to structural excess capacity and overproduction in manufacturing sectors. The Federal Register notice (FR doc 2026-05214; dockets USTR-2026-0067 and USTR-2026-0068) was published on 17 March 2026. Covered sectors include aluminum, automobiles, batteries, cement, chemicals, electronics, energy goods, glass, machine tools, machinery, paper, plastics, processed food and beverages, robotics, satellites, semiconductors, ships, solar modules, steel, and transportation equipment. Written comments were due by 15 April 2026; USTR held the public hearing beginning 5 May 2026. This is the most sweeping multi-economy Section 301 initiative since the 2018 China investigation and is structurally distinct from the China-only 2024-05-14 §301 tariff hikes and the 2025-07-15 Brazil §301 investigation.

The US Department of Commerce published preliminary affirmative countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on February 26, 2026, finding that producers and exporters of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from India, Indonesia, and Laos received countervailable government subsidies. Preliminary subsidy rates are 125.87% for India; 85.99%–143.30% by individual Indonesian producer (104.38% all-others rate); and a uniform 80.67% for Laos. Commerce ordered US Customs and Border Protection to begin collecting cash deposits at these rates on subject imports pending a parallel antidumping investigation and final determinations later in 2026. The case originated from a petition filed in August 2025 by US crystalline silicon PV manufacturers.

President Trump signed a Presidential Proclamation on 20 February 2026 invoking Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 (19 U.S.C. § 2132) to impose a temporary 10% ad-valorem import surcharge on articles imported into the United States, effective 12:01 a.m. EST on 24 February 2026. The proclamation was issued within hours of the US Supreme Court's 20 February 2026 ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which held that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to set tariffs and vacated the IEEPA-based reciprocal-tariff regime previously in effect. The Section 122 surcharge is statutorily limited to 150 days (terminates 24 July 2026 absent Congressional extension) and the statute caps any such surcharge at 15% ad valorem. Goods qualifying as USMCA originating from Canada or Mexico are exempt; CAFTA-DR textile/apparel articles meeting specified rules of origin are exempt; and a substantial product-exception list excludes critical minerals, energy products, certain pharmaceuticals, electronics, vehicles, aerospace products, specified agricultural goods, and goods already subject to Section 232 duties (the Section 122 duty does not stack on Section 232).

On 19 February 2026 Presidents Trump and Prabowo finalised the Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART) between the United States and Indonesia. The deal locks the US reciprocal tariff on Indonesian imports at 19% (down from the 32% threatened in April 2025), with 0% on a defined list of products and a textile/apparel quota benchmarked to US-cotton/MMF inputs. Indonesia commits to remove export restrictions on all industrial commodities — explicitly including critical minerals across the full value chain — and to grant US investors national treatment in mineral exploration, mining, processing and export. Indonesia also agrees to eliminate tariff barriers on >99% of US-origin goods, while a Freeport-McMoRan MOU extends the Grasberg copper-mine licence (~USD 10bn/yr revenue, world's 2nd largest copper mine) and a parallel commercial package totalling ~USD 33bn (energy USD 15bn, aerospace incl. Boeing USD 13.5bn, agriculture USD 4.5bn) is signed alongside.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) confirmed it has officially cut the 2026 nickel-ore Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) production ceiling to 260–270 million wet metric tonnes (wmt), down from the ~379 million wmt approved for 2025 — a reduction of roughly one-third. Actual 2026 production is targeted at approximately 209–210 million tonnes. Minister Bahlil Lahadalia framed the cut as a supply-demand balancing measure to stabilise nickel prices and conserve reserves; the government first signalled the production control on 23 December 2025, after which world nickel prices rose from roughly US$14,800/t under oversupply to above US$17,000–18,800/t. This is the operative 2026 application of the annual RKAB cycle established by Permen ESDM 17/2025.

At the Indonesia Economic Outlook 2026 forum in Jakarta on 13 February 2026, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia announced the government is "studying the termination of tin exports" as the next phase of Indonesia's hilirisasi (downstream processing) programme, explicitly framing it as the successor to the 2020 nickel ore export ban and the 2023 bauxite export ban. Indonesia is the world's largest refined tin exporter, with Bangka Belitung province accounting for approximately 81.7% of provincial export value (~USD 1.6bn in 2025); no formal decree (Permendag or Kepmen ESDM) has been issued as of June 2026, placing this action in a pre-legislative signalling stage.

The US Department of Commerce issued affirmative preliminary countervailing duty (CVD) determinations on hardwood and decorative plywood from China, Indonesia, and Vietnam, finding countervailable government subsidies in all three countries. Preliminary subsidy rates are 81.34% for China, 2.40% to 128.66% for Indonesia (case-by-case, non-cooperating producer PT Mustika Buana Sejahtera at the top of the range), and 4.37% to 26.75% for Vietnam. Commerce published the determinations in the Federal Register on 22 January 2026, triggering CBP collection of cash deposits at these rates pending final determinations. A parallel antidumping (AD) investigation on the same product and countries runs on a separate track (see responds_to) with preliminary AD margins of 187.27% (China), up to 84.94% (Indonesia), and 196.14% (Vietnam) announced 25 February 2026 — AD and CVD duties stack cumulatively.

Indonesia's Ministry of Finance imposed a definitive import safeguard duty (Bea Masuk Tindakan Pengamanan / BMTP) on imported cotton woven fabric, covering 16 eight-digit HS codes (5208/5209/5210/5211/5212 cotton-fabric lines), effective 10 January 2026 for three years. The duty follows a KPPI safeguard investigation that found an import surge causing serious injury to Indonesia's domestic weaving industry. The duty is a specific (absolute-rupiah) levy that declines over the three-year term, and 122 countries are exempted subject to certificate-of-origin verification.

Decree reforming various tariff fractions of the General Import and Export Duties Tariff (TIGIE), published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 29 December 2025 and in force 1 January 2026. The reform, approved by Congress as a statutory amendment to the LIGIE (Chamber of Deputies and Senate, Dec 2025) and signed by President Claudia Sheinbaum, raises MFN import duties to between 5% and 50% ad valorem on 1,463 tariff lines covering more than 20 chapters of the TIGIE, spanning automotive, auto parts, textiles, apparel, footwear, steel, aluminum, plastics, paper, leather, furniture, glass, toys, appliances and cosmetics. The increases apply only to goods originating in countries without a free trade agreement with Mexico — principally China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, Thailand, Brazil, Indonesia, Chinese Taipei, the UAE, and South Africa. The decree formalises at statutory level the September 2024 Sheinbaum executive order placing a 50% duty on finished passenger vehicles from non-FTA states and is framed by the Secretaría de Economía and SHCP as the operational tariff instrument of Plan México (2025-01-21).

On 12 December 2025 India's Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA), chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, approved higher Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for copra for the 2026 marketing season (January-April 2026). The MSP for milling copra (Fair Average Quality) rises to Rs 12,027 per quintal, up Rs 445 (+3.8%) from the 2025 season, while the MSP for ball copra rises to Rs 12,500 per quintal, up Rs 400 (+3.3%). Procurement is executed nationally through NAFED and NCCF as Central Nodal Agencies under the Price Support Scheme (PSS)/PM-AASHA umbrella, primarily benefiting coconut growers in Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, and structurally disadvantages coconut/copra-based edible-oil imports and re-exports competing with subsidized domestic supply, including from Indonesia.

Indonesia's Ministry of Finance issued Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 80 of 2025 on 17 November 2025, imposing tiered export duties on gold products effective 23 December 2025. Rates range from 7.5% to 15% depending on product form (dore, granules, or ingots/cast bars) and a reference-price trigger at US$3,200/troy oz, with dore attracting the highest duty (12.5% below $3,200/oz; 15% at or above). The policy aims to secure domestic gold supply, stabilise local refinery feedstock prices, and advance Indonesia's hilirisasi (downstreaming) agenda by incentivising in-country processing of raw gold output.

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia signed Peraturan Menteri ESDM Nomor 18 Tahun 2025 ("Permen ESDM 18/2025") on 14 November 2025, Indonesia's first comprehensive ministerial-level framework for the exploration, designation, allocation, and utilisation of rare-earth resources. The regulation operationalises Government Regulation PP 39/2025 (signed 11 September 2025), which inserted a dedicated rare-earths article (Article 18A) into PP 96/2021 on the implementation of mineral and coal mining business activities. It empowers the Minister to designate BUMN (state-owned enterprises) as preferred operators of rare-earth mining and processing, mandates that REE output prioritise domestic strategic industries (defence, electric vehicle batteries, advanced technology, permanent magnets), and routes inventarisation through the geological agency before WIUP (mining business permit areas) are awarded.

Pakistan's Directorate General of Customs Valuation (Karachi), acting under the Federal Board of Revenue, issued Valuation Ruling No. 2023/2025 on 5 November 2025 (C.No. Misc/12/2025-I/1073), fixing new minimum customs values under Section 25A of the Customs Act, 1969 for imported Zirconium Silicate (PCT 2530.9020): US$2.084/kg (C&F) for China, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam-origin shipments, and US$2.200/kg for Europe/USA-origin shipments. The ruling followed a finding that declared import values — as low as US$0.35/kg from China against a China/Europe international benchmark of US$1.70-1.82/kg for the constituent raw material (Zircon Sand) — were substantially below prevailing international market prices, and names China as the "global benchmark" origin used to set the floor.

Indonesia's Ministry of Finance, under newly-appointed Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, issued Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 68 of 2025 on 16 October 2025, revising the export duty (bea keluar) schedule for cocoa beans (biji kakao, HS 1801.00.10/1801.00.90). The regulation lowers the price-tiered duty structure — for example the US$2,000–2,750/tonne reference-price bracket drops from 5% to 2.5% — producing an overall schedule that now tops out at 7.5% versus a materially higher ceiling previously. Implementing collection under the revised schedule began 22 October 2025. The same PMK simultaneously raised the export duty on pine resin (getah pinus) to 25%, an unrelated forestry product change bundled into the same instrument.

On 6 October 2025, President Prabowo Subianto presided over the handover of six confiscated private tin smelters — plus 108 units of heavy equipment, 680.7 tonnes of refined tin, and 22 land parcels — from the Attorney General's Office (Kejaksaan Agung) to state-owned PT Timah Tbk, valued at approximately Rp6–7 trillion (US$362–427M). The six smelters (TIN, RBT, VIP, SIP, MCM, SBS) were seized as proceeds of the landmark PT Timah corruption probe, which found illegal collusion between PT Timah and private smelters causing ~Rp300 trillion in state losses; their transfer to PT Timah effectively consolidates roughly half of Indonesia's refined-tin smelting capacity in state hands, and PT Timah began operating the facilities in early 2026.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Permen ESDM No. 17 of 2025 on procedures for preparing, submitting and approving Work Plans and Budgets (RKAB) and reporting of mineral and coal mining activities. Signed by Minister Bahlil Lahadalia on 30 September 2025 and in force from 3 October 2025, the regulation reverses the 2023 three-year RKAB cycle back to an annual cycle, requires all IUP/IUPK holders to resubmit through the new MinerbaOne digital portal between 1 October and 15 November each year, annuls previously-issued 2026/2027 quotas, and introduces a 5-working-day auto-approval rule. Operationalised by a 2026 nickel-ore RKAB target band of 250–270 million wmt — roughly one third below the 2025 approved quota of ~379 million wmt — explicitly framed as a price-management and conservation instrument. First clear use of the RKAB framework as an explicit market-management lever rather than a domestic-licensing tool.

Indonesia's Ministry of Industry issued Permenperin No. 35 of 2025 on 11 September 2025, signed by Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita, on the Provisions and Procedures for Certification of Local Content Level (TKDN) and Company Benefit Weight (BMP). The regulation takes effect on 11 December 2025 and revokes Permenperin No. 16/2011 along with Permenperin No. 46/2022. It unifies TKDN and BMP into a single certificate, standardises a 5-year validity period (previously 3 years), expands scope to industrial services and mixed goods-service activities (e.g. EPC), introduces a 20-percentage-point bonus for R&D-intensive / Industry-4.0 producers, and accelerates issuance via accredited Independent Verification Institutes (Lembaga Verifikasi Independen / LVI) to roughly 10 working days for general industry and 4 working days for SMEs (IKM).

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) issued Ministerial Decree Kepmen ESDM No. 268.K/MB.01/MEM.B/2025 on 8 August 2025, establishing Guidelines for Determining Benchmark Prices (Harga Patokan Mineral/HPM and Harga Patokan Batubara/HPB) for the sale of metal minerals and coal. It revokes the predecessor Kepmen 72/2025 and relaxes the absolute HPM/HPB price-floor mandate—exempting pre-existing contracts at below-benchmark prices—while preserving HPM/HPB as the obligatory basis for royalty and tax calculation, closing transfer-pricing avoidance. Pricing formulas cover nickel, cobalt, copper, gold, bauxite, tin, and coal grades, directly determining royalty revenues collected under the already-filed PP 19/2025 progressive royalty framework from the world's largest nickel producer (~62% of global supply).

Minister of Trade Regulation No. 20 of 2025, signed by Minister Budi Santoso on 30 June 2025 and effective 29 August 2025 (60 days after promulgation), reorganises Indonesia's import regime for chemicals, Hazardous Materials (B2), and a defined set of mining and energy inputs. The regulation revokes Permendag 8/2024 and requires holders of designated importer status (Importir Terdaftar / Importir Produsen) to secure an Import Approval (Persetujuan Impor) plus a post-arrival Surveyor Report (Laporan Surveyor) for an eleven-cluster commodity bundle including lubricant raw materials, cement clinker and cement, rough diamonds, non-pharmaceutical precursors, crude oil and natural gas, nitrocellulose, commercial-industrial explosives, ozone-depleting substances, hydrofluorocarbons, B2, and certain other chemicals (BKT). It is one of nine commodity-cluster Permendags issued the same day under the Prabowo administration's umbrella import-policy deregulation package.

Peraturan Pemerintah Nomor 28 Tahun 2025 tentang Penyelenggaraan Perizinan Berusaha Berbasis Risiko ("PP 28/2025") is the cross-sector business-licensing parent statute signed by President Prabowo Subianto on 5 June 2025, replacing PP 5/2021. It expands the Online Single Submission (OSS) risk-based licensing system to six new sectors (creative economy, geospatial information, cooperatives, investment, electronic system & transaction operators, environment), integrates environmental permitting (AMDAL/UKL-UPL) into OSS, and strengthens layered administrative sanctions. Appendix 1F operationalises a de-facto moratorium: the OSS platform now blocks new business-permit applications for intermediate-nickel production lines — nickel matte, mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), nickel pig iron (NPI), and ferronickel — pushing investment toward higher-value Class-1 / battery-grade nickel sulphate and precursor chemistry. After a four-month grace period, OSS enforcement notifications began October–November 2025, prompting FINI (Indonesian Nickel Smelting Association) exemption petitions on behalf of partially-built projects.

Indonesia's Ministry of Finance extended for a second three-year term the import safeguard duty (Bea Masuk Tindakan Pengamanan / BMTP) on expansible polystyrene (EPS) resin (HS 3903.11.10), via Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 29 of 2025, effective 23 May 2025 to 22 May 2028. The extension follows a KPPI investigation opened 22 July 2024 that found the domestic industry still needed time to complete structural adjustment despite a fall in import volumes. The duty is a specific (per-kilogram) levy declining annually and applies to all source countries, principally Taiwan, China and Vietnam.

Indonesia's President signed Presidential Regulation (Perpres) No. 46 of 2025 on 30 April 2025, the second amendment to Perpres No. 16 of 2018 on Government Procurement of Goods/Services. The regulation lowers the minimum domestic-content (TKDN) threshold a product must meet to qualify for preferential treatment, sets the price-preference margin available to qualifying domestic suppliers at up to 25%, and mandates that at least 40% of procurement budgets be allocated to domestic goods/services with a further 40% carve-out for MSME/ cooperative suppliers. Global Trade Alert tags the domestic-content reduction component as liberalising and the price-preference increase as trade-restrictive; on net the measure strengthens the bid-evaluation advantage available to local suppliers across all central- and regional-government procurement, with construction and site-preparation services flagged by GTA as an early-affected sector.

Government Regulation No. 19 of 2025 on Types and Rates of Non-Tax State Revenue (PNBP) applicable to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, signed by President Prabowo Subianto on 11 Apr 2025 and effective 26 Apr 2025 (15 working days after promulgation), revokes PP 26/2022 and replaces fixed mining royalty rates with a progressive tiered system anchored to international benchmark prices (HMA for nickel, HBA for coal). Headline shifts: nickel ore from fixed 10% to 14–19% by HMA tier; ferronickel 2% → 4–6%; nickel matte 2% → 3.5–5.5%; NPI 5% → 5–7%; copper cathode 2% → 4–7%; tin 3% → 3–10%; gold 3.75–10% → 7–16%; coal up to 13.5% at HBA >USD 90 for >5,200 kcal/kg grades. The regulation is the cornerstone fiscal lever of the Prabowo nickel-downstreaming/hilirisasi 2.0 strategy alongside RKAB-quota tightening that cut national nickel quotas from 272m to 150m tonnes for 2025.

President Trump signed Executive Order 14257 on 2 April 2025 declaring a national emergency over US trade deficits and imposing a baseline 10% ad-valorem tariff on imports from nearly all trading partners effective 5 April, with higher country-specific "reciprocal" rates effective 9 April. The rate schedule was constructed from a formula tied to bilateral goods-trade deficits and ranged from 10% (UK, Singapore, Brazil, Australia, others) through 20% (EU), 24% (Japan), 25% (Korea), 32% (Taiwan, Indonesia, Switzerland), 34% (China, later raised to 84% then 125% during the April escalation), 46% (Vietnam), 49% (Cambodia). Multiple subsequent EOs paused the country-specific rates for 90 days for non-China destinations on 9 April while keeping the 10% baseline, pending bilateral negotiations.

Indonesia's Ministry of Communications and Digital Affairs (Kemkomdigi) promulgated Permenkomdigi No. 5/2025 on 25 March 2025 as the implementing regulation under Government Regulation PP 71/2019 governing Public-Scope Electronic System Operators (PSE Lingkup Publik), defined as operators running electronic systems for government institutions or critical public services. The regulation mandates registration, data classification by risk level (low/medium/ high/strategic) with corresponding domestic storage and processing requirements, content- moderation governance, and access-blocking mechanisms for prohibited electronic information. All public-scope PSEs must achieve compliance by 25 March 2026, with non-compliant operators subject to progressive administrative sanctions under Articles 100-series ranging from written warnings to access disconnection (pemutusan akses) and removal from official registries.

Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan Nomor 8 Tahun 2025 (Permendag 8/2025), signed 6 March 2025 and effective 10 March 2025, is the Third Amendment to Indonesia's Export-Prohibited Goods List (Permendag 22/2023), revising prohibited-export categories across seven commodity groups: forestry (wood, bamboo), agriculture (natural rubber, porang, rice, kratom), subsidised fertilisers (nitrogen-containing mineral/chemical fertilisers), mining (tin and minerals subject to general downstream-processing rules), cultural heritage, metal waste/scrap (iron and steel), and marine sedimentation products (sea sand, marine sludge). The regulation introduces a structured hilirisasi force-majeure relaxation pathway allowing companies that have completed construction of domestic mineral refining/smelting facilities — but cannot yet operate due to force majeure — to temporarily export copper concentrate with a minimum 15% Cu content, subject to Ministry of Trade approval. It is the direct predecessor to the Fourth Amendment (Permendag 6/2026, 26 March 2026).

On 24 February 2025 President Prabowo Subianto launched Badan Pengelola Investasi Daya Anagata Nusantara (Danantara), Indonesia's new state investment-management agency, consolidating around USD 900bn–1tn of Indonesian state-owned-enterprise assets — including Pertamina, PLN, Bank Mandiri, BRI, BNI, Telkom, MIND ID, Antam and Inalum — into a single super-holding modelled on Singapore's Temasek. Danantara was created by the Third Amendment to the BUMN Law (Law No. 1 of 2025, enacted 24 February 2025) and Government Regulation No. 10 of 2025 on its organisation and governance, with board appointments formalised by Presidential Regulation No. 30 of 2025. The agency reports directly to the President, bypassing the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises, and is mandated to deploy SOE balance-sheet capacity into Prabowo's 8% growth target via co-investment in mineral downstreaming, refinery and EV-battery build-out, food security, and semiconductor / data-centre infrastructure.

Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) passed the Fourth Amendment to Law No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining on 18 February 2025, and the government enacted it as Undang-Undang Nomor 2 Tahun 2025 on 19 March 2025. The amendment statutorily entrenches the long-standing hilirisasi (downstream-utilisation priority) doctrine for IUP/IUPK holders at production stage, opens preferential mining-permit allocation pathways for SMEs, cooperatives, religious-organisation business entities, and BUMN/BUMD, and ties licence issuance to approved RKAB production quotas — operationalising the Bahlil/Prabowo supply-management strategy across nickel, bauxite, copper, cobalt, manganese, tin, and zinc.

Indonesia issued Government Regulation (Peraturan Pemerintah) No. 8 of 2025 on Foreign-Exchange Proceeds from Natural-Resource Exports (DHE SDA), amending PP No. 36/2023. President Prabowo Subianto announced the policy at Merdeka Palace on 17–18 February 2025 and the regulation takes effect on 1 March 2025. It mandates that exporters of non-oil- and-gas mining, plantation, forestry, and fisheries products with export-proceeds value of USD 250,000 or more per shipment retain 100 percent of those foreign-exchange proceeds inside Indonesia's financial system for 12 months — sharply up from the prior 30 percent for 3 months under PP 36/2023. Oil-and-gas exporters remain on the earlier 30 percent / 3-month regime. Permitted in-period uses include rupiah conversion at the holding bank, payment of state obligations in foreign currency, dividend distribution, payment for imported raw materials and capital goods unavailable domestically, and servicing of foreign-currency capital-expenditure loans. Non-compliance carries administrative sanctions including suspension of export services. The government has projected the measure could lift retained foreign- exchange proceeds by USD 80 billion in 2025 and over USD 100 billion on a full 12-month basis.

Indonesia's Minister of Finance, via Peraturan Menteri Keuangan (PMK) No. 9 Tahun 2025 (signed 10 February 2025, effective 22 February 2025), extended for a further five years the definitive anti-dumping duty (Bea Masuk Anti Dumping / BMAD) on imports of Hot Rolled Plate (HRP) steel — flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, width ≥600mm, HS 7208.51.00 and 7208.52.00 — originating in China, Singapore and Ukraine. The extension follows a KADI sunset-review investigation that found continued dumping and a likelihood of injury recurrence should the duty lapse. Rates are unchanged from the prior instrument (PMK 111/2019): China 10.47%, Singapore 12.50%, Ukraine 12.33%.

Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) mandated a 40% biodiesel blend in diesel fuel (B40), effective January 1, 2025, stepping up from the prior B35 standard under Keputusan Menteri ESDM No. 341.K/EK.01/MEM.E/2024. The 2025 allocation totals 15.6 million kiloliters (7.55m kL PSO + 8.07m kL non-PSO), absorbing approximately 15.62 million kL of crude palm oil (CPO) into domestic biofuel production. The measure is projected to save Rp25 trillion annually in foreign-exchange versus B35 and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 41.46 million tonnes CO2e per year. The government has signalled an advance to B50 by 2026 to eliminate diesel imports entirely.

On 3 January 2025 President Prabowo Subianto signed Keputusan Presiden (Keppres) No. 1 of 2025, establishing the Satuan Tugas Percepatan Hilirisasi dan Ketahanan Energi Nasional (Task Force for the Acceleration of Downstreaming and National Energy Resilience). The task force operates directly under the President, is chaired by the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (Bahlil Lahadalia), and pulls together cabinet members from Investment & Downstreaming, Agrarian Affairs, Agriculture, Marine Affairs, Finance, Industry, SOEs, Environment, Public Works, Trade, plus the Attorney General and Police Chief. Its mandate covers minerals and coal, oil and gas, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and energy security: identifying strategic projects, mapping priority business areas, formulating standards on financing and state-revenue capture, adjusting spatial planning, and recommending administrative action against officials obstructing implementation. The task force reports to the President at least biannually and is funded out of the ESDM ministry budget.

President Claudia Sheinbaum's government published in the Diario Oficial de la Federación on 19 Dec 2024 a decree amending the General Import & Export Tax Law (TIGIE) and the IMMEX Decree. The decree imposes a 35% temporary import duty on 138 finished-apparel tariff lines (Chapters 61, 62, 63 plus tariff item 9404.40.01) and a 15% duty on 17 textile-input tariff lines (Chapters 52, 55, 58, 60), totalling 155 fractions. Concurrently, 302 tariff fractions in Chapters 61/62/63 are removed from IMMEX duty-deferral eligibility (moved out of Annex II Section C into Annex I). The measure exempts countries with which Mexico has an FTA (notably USMCA partners) and is in force from 20 Dec 2024 until 23 Apr 2026.

Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral (Permen ESDM) No. 6 of 2024, signed by Minister Arifin Tasrif on 30 May 2024 and published in the Berita Negara Republik Indonesia, establishes the procedural framework governing how holders of Mining Business Licences (IUP) and Special Mining Business Licences (IUPK) for copper, iron, lead, and zinc production may continue to sell processed mineral products abroad during the final phase of domestic smelter construction. Licence holders that previously obtained MEMR export recommendations and whose refining facilities have reached commissioning stage but are not yet at full operational capacity may apply for time-bound extensions to sell concentrate and semi-processed ore offshore through 31 December 2024, subject to quarterly physical inspections by the Director General of Minerals and Coal. The regulation is the MEMR-side companion instrument to the same-day Permendag 10/2024 (Ministry of Trade copper-concentrate and anode-sludge export prohibition), together constituting the complete legal architecture of Indonesia's copper hilirisasi (downstream- processing) mandate. Its scope is broader than the Trade Ministry rule: it covers copper, iron, lead, and zinc whereas Permendag 10/2024 targets copper and anode-sludge only, and it operates as the conditional derogation mechanism (MEMR) to Permendag 10/2024's absolute prohibition regime (Trade Ministry).

Indonesia's Ministry of Trade promulgated Peraturan Menteri Perdagangan (Permendag) No. 10 of 2024 on 30 May 2024, amending Permendag 22/2023 on Goods Prohibited for Export. The regulation set 31 December 2024 as the final cutoff for copper-concentrate and anode-sludge exports — extending the original 1 June 2024 ban deadline by seven months — and enforced a full prohibition starting 1 January 2025. The measure is paired with ESDM Regulation No. 6 of 2024 covering the upstream mining-product side, completing the legal architecture of Indonesia's copper "hilirisasi" (downstream-isation) mandate. The ban forces all domestically mined copper concentrate to be smelted and refined inside Indonesia. Two operators are directly affected: PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI), majority-owned by state holding MIND ID with Freeport-McMoRan as minority partner, which operates the Grasberg mine in Papua and the new Manyar/Gresik smelter in JIIPE; and PT Amman Mineral Nusa Tenggara (subsidiary of PT Amman Mineral Internasional, IDX:AMMN), which operates the Batu Hijau mine in Sumbawa with a smelter under commissioning. A fire at Freeport's Gresik smelter in October 2024 disrupted ramp-up and forced the government to grant a discretionary export-permit extension into 2025 for PTFI, signalling that the ban — while now legally in force — is being enforced flexibly during smelter commissioning rather than as a hard stop. Permendag 10/2024 is the copper-sector equivalent of the 2020 nickel- ore export ban (ESDM 11/2019) and the planned bauxite-ore ban (effective June 2023). Together these three measures complete Indonesia's resource-nationalism package across its three highest-value mineral exports: nickel, bauxite, and copper. Combined domestic smelter capex commitments tied to the copper rule (Freeport Manyar + Amman Sumbawa) total ~USD 6 billion. Indonesia's Finance Ministry estimated forgone export revenue of ~Rp 10 trillion (~USD 640 million per year) from the copper-concentrate ban alone, which the government is treating as an acceptable downstream-policy cost. Severity is set at 4: the action is binding, durable, and reshapes a globally relevant supply chain (Indonesia is ~5% of global mined copper, rising), but discretionary export extensions during smelter commissioning soften near-term enforcement and limit the immediate market shock relative to the harder 2020 nickel rule.

Regulation (EU) 2023/2842, published in the Official Journal on 20 December 2023, is the first comprehensive recast of the EU fisheries control framework since Council Regulation (EC) No 1224/2009, and amends the IUU Regulation (EC) No 1005/2008 alongside five sectoral regulations (1967/2006, 2016/1139, 2017/2403, 2019/473). Effective in phases from 10 January 2026, it mandates the CATCH electronic catch-certification IT system for ALL imports of wild-capture marine fishery products into the EU single market, replacing legacy paper catch certificates. It also introduces Remote Electronic Monitoring (REM) with CCTV on high-risk EU vessels ≥18 m, full electronic reporting for all vessels by 2028, and extended Vessel Monitoring System (VMS) coverage down to vessels ≥12 m. The regulation tightens the carding regime (red/yellow cards for non-cooperating flag states under the amended IUU Regulation) and requires digital traceability end-to-end through the supply chain, raising compliance cost and market-access barriers for all non-EU seafood exporters.

Regulation (EU) 2023/1115, adopted 31 May 2023 and in force 29 June 2023, requires all EU operators and traders placing seven in-scope commodities and their derived products on the EU market — or exporting them from the EU — to file due-diligence statements certifying that goods are deforestation-free (no land cleared after 31 December 2020) and produced in compliance with the relevant legislation of the country of origin. A Commission-administered risk-classification system assigns producer countries to low, standard, or high-risk tiers with differentiated due-diligence burdens. Application was subsequently postponed twice: to 30 December 2026 for large operators (Reg (EU) 2024/3234 and Reg (EU) 2025/2650).