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One triage view across every tracked material: how long it would take to substitute the dominant supplier of its binding stage, and how much restrictive policy pressure it is under right now. Sort by lead-time to see the inputs you can least easily replace; the ones in the longest band that are also under active export- restriction pressure are where a supply halt would hurt most and fastest — hedge those first.
🕕 47 materials tracked · 2 sit in the 24-36mo substitution band (no ready substitute) · 2 of those took ≥1 restrictive action in the last 24m — hedge these first.
Substitution lead is a share-of-stage heuristic, NOT a primary-sourced qualification time: the highest-share non-dominant producer of the binding stage sets the band — ≥10% share → 0-6mo (brownfield swap) · ≥2% → 6-12mo (ramp existing) · >0 → 12-24mo (new line) · none → 24-36mo (greenfield). The binding stage is refining where a refining split exists (that is usually where chains pinch), else mining.
Restrictive 24m counts IPTM register filings from the last 24 months whose target_materialsinclude this material and whose effective polarity is restrictive (export controls, quotas, licensing, sanctions). Click the count to read them. Production shares: USGS MCS 2025/2026 + IEA/EU-JRC where noted per material. See each material's /substitution matrix for the full per-supplier breakdown incl. Western-sanctions flags.