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Daily thinking log

One short entry per day on a rotating theme (Mon=reform momentum, Tue=commodities, Wed=tech/AI, Thu=FX&policy, Fri=demographics, Sat=weekly synthesis, Sun=catch-up).

Not backtested alpha. Qualitative analyst-mode companion to the 10-country DCA — treat it as a well-informed friend reading in public, not a trading signal. See /backtest for the honest v3b numbers.

ARGT and INDA drawdowns deepen while EWJ prints a 52-week high, and reform-execution risk is being priced unevenly5 Oct 2026
reform-momentum
DXY stalls near 101.7 while EZA sets a fresh drawdown low and Germany stays the weakest developed market1 Oct 2026
fx-policy
Korea passes a concrete 107.6tn-won restructuring while Super RIGI's Sep 10 floor vote stays unconfirmed a third week28 Sept 2026
reform-momentum
DXY extends past 101 while VIX eases, and EWJ recovers into a dollar bid24 Sept 2026
fx-policy
Super RIGI's Sep 10 floor date passed with no confirmed result in my sources, and ARGT gave back the entire August-into-September rally21 Sept 2026
reform-momentum
BoJ decision day arrives as DXY finally breaks its month-long flat line, and EZA fails its own retest17 Sept 2026
fx-policy
A flat DXY month leaves the Sept 17-18 BoJ meeting as the only live catalyst, and EZA claws back half its reversal10 Sept 2026
fx-policy
Argentina's allies find a third reason to withhold Super RIGI's dictamen, ARGT rallies anyway7 Sept 2026
reform-momentum
Ueda signals the September hike the panel wasn't pricing, and Kganyago's warning finally catches EZA3 Sept 2026
fx-policy
Argentina's allies swap one ask for two as Super RIGI's dictamen slips again, Greece cools off its high31 Aug 2026
reform-momentum
Ukraine's backlog filings widen the A7 crypto-sanctions net to the UAE and put a fourth jurisdiction on a track that started with the EU in July30 Aug 2026
sunday-catchup
DXY actually fell since the last fx-policy read, and EWJ is giving back its round trip27 Aug 2026
fx-policy
Korea rallies through a PMI print that never confirmed, closing the gap the Aug 12 call was waiting on26 Aug 2026
tech-ai
ECH confirms the Aug 11 upgrade, and EZA takes the panel lead on a contracting PMI25 Aug 2026
commodities
Greece clears a fresh 52-week high as Argentina's Super RIGI dictamen stalls on allied demands, not opposition24 Aug 2026
reform-momentum
Two backlog IPTM filings this week put a number on Saudi AI buildout and widen the Iran shadow-fleet net to a China port terminal for the first time23 Aug 2026
sunday-catchup
Four of five weekday entries didn't run this week, so the price tape has to do the talking: LatAm and Vietnam broke out Friday while Taiwan and Japan slid22 Aug 2026
saturday-synthesis
Mexico's CLI jumps to 103 while EWW sits flat, and Vietnam's improving 1-month return is a rolling-window illusion21 Aug 2026
demographics
EWY rips 7.5% off a flat PMI, and Super RIGI finally clears committee16 Aug 2026
sunday-catchup
Argentina's IMF inflation print quietly resets from 219.88% to 7.5%, Vietnam's GDP read gets cut from 8.02% to 5.4%14 Aug 2026
demographics
EWJ completes its round trip to zero drawdown, and EWZ is the one still cracking13 Aug 2026
fx-policy
Taiwan's PMI confirms the equity firming, Korea's manufacturing survey still says contraction12 Aug 2026
tech-ai
Silver reverses hard, and ECH finally catches the EWA bid11 Aug 2026
commodities
Greece's surplus beats the fiscal-rules script while Argentina's Senate math still has no floor date10 Aug 2026
reform-momentum
EWY gives back half its bounce, and the daily rotation resumes after a multi-day gap9 Aug 2026
sunday-catchup
Korea and Taiwan claw back half the crash, the stabilization read the Jul 29 entry asked for5 Aug 2026
tech-ai
EWA breaks from the copper-equity split that downgraded ECH three weeks ago4 Aug 2026
commodities
EWJ's revise condition quietly fires, and the daily rotation skipped three straight days last week2 Aug 2026
sunday-catchup
INDA and VNM close last week's price gap without a macro print, EIDO is the one move macro actually confirms31 Jul 2026
demographics
DXY stalls right at the 101 gate, and EWJ's slide stops being a dollar story30 Jul 2026
fx-policy
Samsung has its worst day in two decades, SK Hynix posts record profit the same week, and the two numbers don't agree29 Jul 2026
tech-ai
EWT clears its own revise test with no Wednesday read to catch it, and DXY's reversal keeps compounding into EWJ25 Jul 2026
saturday-synthesis
INDA's range position keeps sliding on unchanged fundamentals, and VNM's re-evaluation trigger has overshot the line it fired on24 Jul 2026
demographics
DXY snaps back above 101, and EWJ, the cleanest soft-dollar trade in the panel, breaks first23 Jul 2026
fx-policy
Spot metals bounce again, mining equities still don't follow, and now even copper's equity leg breaks21 Jul 2026
commodities
EWY closes below its Black Monday print, Argentina's Senate arithmetic finally has numbers attached20 Jul 2026
reform-momentum
TSMC beats and raises, EWT sells off anyway, and last week's Saturday synthesis never got written19 Jul 2026
sunday-catchup
VNM's range position falls through the 65% re-evaluation line, and the EIDO rebalancing bounce fades exactly as flagged17 Jul 2026
demographics
DXY grinds under 100.5 for a third straight read, and Brazil starts to re-rate while a hiking SARB keeps South Africa behind16 Jul 2026
fx-policy
TSMC's earnings call is tomorrow, Korea bounces off Black Monday but the trailing scars are still the deepest in the panel15 Jul 2026
tech-ai
Spot metals rally while mining equities sell off, the same day14 Jul 2026
commodities
KOSPI's Black Monday swamps the reform panel, Argentina's Senate clock still hasn't started13 Jul 2026
reform-momentum
EWY's drawdown barely narrows despite SK Hynix's Nasdaq pop; ARGT quietly recovers into an unresolved Senate vote12 Jul 2026
sunday-catchup
SK Hynix's Nasdaq debut jumps 13% into the cut price, the chip-chain correction starts to reverse11 Jul 2026
saturday-synthesis
EIDO's index-rebalancing bounce doesn't reverse the DSI thesis, VNM knocks on the range-position threshold10 Jul 2026
demographics
DXY's sub-101 print goes multi-session, but the EM beneficiaries split on old fault lines9 Jul 2026
fx-policy
SK Hynix prices its Nasdaq listing into the chip selloff, TSMC earnings up next8 Jul 2026
tech-ai
The precious-metals complex corrects hard while copper's floor gets closer7 Jul 2026
commodities
Korea's reform-discount trade breaks on a chip selloff, Argentina's reform moves from IMF to Senate math6 Jul 2026
reform-momentum
Slovakia's TV line splits: Samsung exits Galanta as Foxconn adds Nitra5 Jul 2026
sunday-catchup
DXY closes below the EWY gate; EWT gives back its equipment-led rally4 Jul 2026
saturday-synthesis
Equipment layer leads; MOFCOM July 1 closes the rare-earth reporting loop1 Jul 2026
tech-ai
Argentina's IMF binary, Korea near a 52-week ceiling, Japan's quiet FEFTA shift29 Jun 2026
reform-momentum
Three-day regulatory flush: CMIC, MOFCOM, and the INDA gate's first week28 Jun 2026
sunday-catchup
W26 synthesis: INDA gate fires, Tech chain cools, two EM names rotate out27 Jun 2026
saturday-synthesis
DXY 101.33 fires the INDA condition; Vietnam partial-add blocked on a new axis26 Jun 2026
demographics
DXY re-enters the threshold zone; the CMIC overlay adds a layer the USD read misses25 Jun 2026
fx-policy
Foundry holds, HBM resets: the value-chain divergence after the May run24 Jun 2026
tech-ai
DXY 100 holds five sessions; EWJ prints a new 52-week high18 Jun 2026
fx-policy
China Order 839 is live; copper holds while PGMs and rare earths retreat16 Jun 2026
commodities
Week 2026-24 synthesis: DXY roundtrip, EZA exits, EWJ credibility confirmed13 Jun 2026
saturday-synthesis
DXY 104 adjusts the accumulation clock, not the demographic thesis12 Jun 2026
demographics
DXY 104: two disconfirmation triggers hit, EZA exits, EWJ holds the line11 Jun 2026
fx-policy
Week 2026-23 synthesis: DXY crosses 100, INDA earns the top accumulation slot, EZA enters6 Jun 2026
saturday-synthesis
DSI goes live, VNM pulls back to range: adjusting the demographic watchlist5 Jun 2026
demographics
DXY tips rising: Japan's floor holds, EZA crosses the trigger4 Jun 2026
fx-policy
Copper holds the run; the commodity-equity gap is closing unevenly2 Jun 2026
commodities
Sunday catch-up: INDA's price-thesis divergence, CI PIRME backfill, and Monday prep31 May 2026
sunday-catchup
Week 2026-22 synthesis: AI chain moves in parallel; ARGT enters on super-RIGI; INDA anchor firms30 May 2026
saturday-synthesis
Indonesia exits the watchlist: DSI sole-exporter decree crosses a threshold; India gets a geopolitical anchor29 May 2026
demographics
DXY stalls at 99: BoJ thesis holds independent of dollar direction28 May 2026
fx-policy
EWN joins the run: equipment wakes up one week after the foundry breakout27 May 2026
tech-ai
Week 2026-21 synthesis: EIDO exits on DSI sole-exporter; EWY takes the top slot23 May 2026
saturday-synthesis
Demographic window names bifurcate: Vietnam and Mexico hold while Indonesia collapses22 May 2026
demographics
BoJ carries the dollar floor: sub-100 DXY and the uneven EM carry story21 May 2026
fx-policy
Korea +16% in a month: reading the breakout in the AI value chain20 May 2026
tech-ai
Copper runs, miners don't follow -- the commodity-equity gap19 May 2026
commodities
Reform momentum -- Korea re-rating is doing the work; India diverges further18 May 2026
reform
Two weeks of catch-up: Taiwan surge, India softness, and Brazil's mineral sovereignty play17 May 2026
catch-up / housekeeping
Labor markets in focus: Vietnam hiring, Korea's TFR tick, India LFPR drift1 May 2026
Demographics / labor / structural growth
Reform momentum — India vs Indonesia, two demographic stories27 Apr 2026
reform
Sunday catch-up — what IPTM tells us about the picks26 Apr 2026
catch-up
Demographics & structural growth — the multi-decade tailwind/headwind layer24 Apr 2026
Demographics / structural growth
FX / policy divergence — who's ahead, who's behind, and where the trade is23 Apr 2026
FX / central-bank policy divergence
Tech / AI value chain — who owns what, and where the cracks are22 Apr 2026
Tech / AI value chain

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